The hour before dawn ?

It is stating the obvious to say these are extraordinary times in both in London and across the world.

It is far less obvious whether this current crisis is ending or just beginning.

Yesterday the Royal Bank of Scotland Group lost 40 % of its value. Today at one point it regained much of this while HBOS rose 60 % before falling back later. That banks with stable Scottish heritage should be fluctuating in price like fruit in a wholesale greengrocer underlines the depths of this crisis.

The solution from London at least is to "part nationalise" (in the words of the FT) all the major banks. While that may bring some relief to share holders and those seeking to borrow money it is doubtful that this is a real solution. Not least it represents a suspension of free market principles and as this crisis is now largely about confidence it does little to inspire that. It also increases the tax payer's exposure. While the banks seem more than happy to accept state support it seems more doubtful that they will accept the other aspects of state ownership. The tabloids are already rumbling with calls for cuts to bonuses, control over penalty charges and cuts to mortgage rate. Whether the banks will find the taste of a public bail out so sweet in the long term seems doubtful.

A temporary suspension of taxation would have cost less and would have been better for the real economy than throwing "good money after bad" in the banking system.

Like any crisis the hour before dawn is always the darkest of the night. What is unclear to me today is whether this is a dawn or just a flickering candle lit at enormous expense.

That the city which has one of the oldest stock markets in the world is today "celebrating" a partial nationalisation of its banks suggests the coming of dawn is uncertain. London is where Karl Marx is buried. I hope it does not prove to be the grave of contemporary free market capitalism which despite its many faults has brought prosperity and benefits to so many around the world.

A part of me remains optimistic. Even at its worst this is another 1929. Even 1929 passed and a dawn came. Let us at least hope the dawn to this crisis comes a little quicker than then.

In the land of Atatürk

This will be a short post from Turkey where my family and I are spending a fortnight's holiday. An internet cafe and a Turkish keyboard are not condusive to a long note.

However I just wanted to record what a wonderful but contradictory country Turkey can seem to the visitor. Aside from the hassling street traders who shout 'yes please!' at anyone looking remotely like a visitor, the people are extremely warm and welcoming. Travelling with a baby boy seems to bring out the best in people and I have lost count of how many warm words and smiles we have received in the last week.

Turkey is 99 % muslim yet the state is strongly secular, a conflict that persists to this day. Despite being in the middle of Ramadam the cafes and restaurants on the Agean coast where we are staying are still thronged with diners, Turk and foreigner alike.

This does not seem a completely free country. The army is very strong with a visible garrison in most towns and rather bizarrely the BBC and Times websites are both censored in this internet cafe (a website with a picture of Atatürk appears when typing those web addresses). However CNN, the Telegraph and many others are freely available. I fail to understand what is going on here.

Another point is this is a much fought over land. What is now Turkey was once Greek or Roman. I will not attempt to summarise the history but historic sites such as Ephesus and the seven churches of the revelation are all to be found close to the Agean coast.

Overlooking all this is Atatürk who founded the modern state of Turkey in 1923. His portrait, often complete with cigarette, can be found in every cafe, shop or establishment you visit.

Superficially at least, this is first and foremost the land of Atatürk and everything else (whether Islam, commerce, terrorism, tourism,nationalism and a range of unstable neighbours) is less apparent in a host of inconsistencies.

Hopefully back with some photos of this interest country next week.

Putting the "Free" back into the Free Market

A hard day in the office for some in London today

Although the collapse of Lehman Brothers is clearly a bit of a disaster for all concerned, including the 5,000 or so London-based workers who will probably loose their jobs, I do think this is one of the most sensible things to happen in the financial markets in the last year.





Until today, the emphasis has been on saving and bailing out every institution that failed. There did seem to be a limit to how much longer this could have gone on, regardless of whether it was right to do so or not. In the end there is even a limit to what the government can prop up and it seems that limit may at last be reached. (In this instance the limit has been reached by the US government but hopefully the principle will apply in the UK too).





To me at least, the whole point of a free market economy is that successful businesses flourish and failing businesses close. This may sound incredibly obvious and simple but in recent times this has been overlooked. This may not always be "fair" (especially on the many small cogs who work inside big machines) but it is an effective way of encouraging strong and well managed businesses. To prop up every failing bank seems to go against this philosophy and indirectly punish the more prudent banks who are less effected by this crisis. Why should rash instituions like Northern Rock be supported and carry on getting new business at the expense of banks who never needed state support ? This does not encourage good business in the long term if every bank knows it will be "saved" no matter what rash gambles it makes.



Therefore the failure of Lehman Bros, painful though it is, seems to be a return to reality. An old bank has sadly failed due to its more recent activities. Those who would have sought the services of Lehman Bros will now have to go elsewhere, potentially strengthening other banks. The buy-out of Merrill Lynch is another market solution that does not require taxpayers money.



Banks are now realising that the best way to save themselves is to help each other by putting money into a "lending pool". This seems to be a return to basic principles of banking and the free market and is far healthier in the long term.

The credit "cake" is shrinking at the moment and the weakest banks may struggle to survive. However the only real route to long term health is to let the market "weed out" the weakest whether by buy out or in hopefully only extreme cases bankruptcy.





Hopefully this can be a first step in turning the recent tide of "government support" in every situation from flooded houses built on flood plains, home insulation, failed holiday companies and even failed banks. These are just some of the areas attracting government "support" in the last year. In turn this must be paid for by taxes, which weaken the economy even further.

How ironic that it must fall to the Liberal Democrats to propose tax cuts and signal some end to the continued growth in state spending and the inevitable taxes that follow it.

New to the job since 1973

I have deliberately been keeping my powder fairly dry on the US elections. Ultimately, despite the importance of the result to the wider world, this is a matter for Americans to decide. Past embarrasments, notably the Guardian readers' campaign to make the voters of Clark County, Ohio vote for John Kerry in 2004, should act as a reminder against "meddling" in overseas elections. (For the record, the Guardian initiative was spectacularly unsuccessful and Clark County along with the rest of Ohio voted for Bush. See this link for some hilarious responses to the letters received from do-gooding Guardian readers !)

Nonetheless we do seem to hear more about the US elections than we sometimes do about our own elections and if nothing else they make a great spectacle and story. For one thing they last so long compared to our own which can be over in about a month since the day they are called.

Below is a short clip of the man "a heartbeat away from the Presidency" on the Democrat side, one Senator Joe Biden. A special connection with British politics is his rare distinction for plagorising a speech by Neil Kinnock. If you have to plagorise, surely it would be a good start to find someone worth plagorising !

Anyway below is Mr. Biden asking a wheelchair bound Senator to stand up. Senator Biden like his role model, Neil Kinnock has a long history of gaffes. He compounds this gaffe by giving the excuse (around 0.30 on the clip) that he is "new to this". New to what ? He's been a Senator since 1973 !!

Seven Years Ago....

I had just started a job working for the Ford Motor Company and was visiting their Motorsport operation deep in the Cumbrian countryside. September 2001 was unusually bleak in Cumbria. It is a beautiful place full of hills and lakes and normally full of farm animals. However in 2001 a deadly outbreak of foot and mouth hit England and millions of animals were slaughtered and disposed of by burning or by burial in pits. All the fields, normally full of sheep and cows, were completely empty.

It was against the backdrop of bleak and eerie beauty of an empty Cumbrian countryside, in a converted country house, working for a giant US Corporation that I first heard of the attack on the twin towers. My colleague who I was working with did not seem to realise the enormity of what was happening but I went out to the car to listen to the news on the radio. Everyone can remember where they were that day and I am no exception.

As well as remembering that day on its seventh anniversary, it must be seen as some success that despite a brutal and determined enemy there has not been one serious terrorist attack on the US in seven years since 9/11. Bombs in Madrid, Bali and London during that time show that the risk remains real.

The images from 9/11 are all too shockingly familiar. Below is a less well known scene from London on September 12th 2001 when the Queen ordered guards outside Buckingham Palace to play the Star Spangled Banner. Many had gathered outside including a lot of Americans stranded in London and unable to return home due to the no fly order being in operation. It is a moving scene, albeit in a short clip.

Oil Falls over 30 %, shame about the petrol

I intend to come back with something more insightful in the near future, but for now time limits me to a moan about petrol prices !

With oil falling below $100 a barrel this week, this represents a near 33 % fall from its peak of $147 in July. Surely for a commodity to fall in price by a third is a massive movement even allowing for the dramatic rise beforehand ?

It is a shame that the petrol stations seem blissfully unaware where the price falls remain mediocre to say the least.

What is going on in Mexico ?

Unlike conventional wars between nations, the "drugs war" in Mexico seems to have attracted relatively little international coverage. However the level of violence that has caused around 2,700 deaths this year alone is really extraordinary.

Some the tactics adopted by the drugs gangs are beginning to resemble the Iraqi insurgency with such horrors as mass beheadings. In fact the level of kidnapping is apparently now worse than Iraq.

My knowledge of Mexico is very limited although I did once hop accross the border during a visit with a friend to California. This was in 2002 and we took a bus from San Diego to Tijuana. Perhaps as two naive Brits we were blissfully unaware of all that was going on. Tijuana was certainly a bit dubious but during the daylight hours we visited seemed no worse than a number of other places where local traders try to sell their wares to tourists. We were aware there was a seedier side to the place but apart from a few tourist shops and an internet cafe that doubled as a dentist we didn't go in anywhere. Satisfied with a brief but presumably unrepresentative glimpse of Mexico we got the bus back, waiting several hours to cross the US border with security apparently being higher than normal on what was the 6-month anniversary of September 11th, 2001.

I don't know if we were just lucky or if things really have got a lot worse in 6 years.

Here is a side of Tijuana I didn't see on my brief visit.



Recent goings on in Mexico really seem dreadful and ordinary people have to live their lives in the midst of this. Even from a cold-blooded criminal perspective the level of violence seems utterly bewildering and I am struggling to understand what is going on there. Understandably it seems ordinary Mexicans are desperate for this to stop.

South Ossetian views

Here are two youtube videos for readers to judge for themselves.

The first purports to show Georgian troops attacking Tskhinvali before the Russians arrived. The APCs certainly have Georgian markings and the apparent pot shots taken at an unarmed shepherd are disturbing.



The second is a Fox News interview with two Ossetian Americans, a 12-year old girl and her aunt who were in South Ossetia, visiting from San Francisco when the Georgian troops attacked. Some criticism has been aimed at Fox News for "interrupting" this interview with a commercial break. I am not sure if that is too valid. They girl and her Aunt had their say and an articulate South Ossetian perspective is more than many other channels have shown, CNN and BBC to name two.

That doesn't mean I don't think ordinary Georgians have suffered greatly in this and have probably suffered the most over the course of the conflict. The reason I am not specifically showing Georgian suffering here is that it has received far more coverage in the mainstream media. There has been suffering on all sides. This is a very troubled area and the line between Ossetian and Georgian is a bit blurred. I did not know until very recently that Joseph Stalin had an Ossetian Father and a Georgian mother. Clearly this is a troubled and fiery region.

Taste of Autumn

It seems a little unfair, after such a poor summer, but there is no denying that there are hints of autumn now appearing.

This morning London was covered in fog. That has now cleared but it promises to be a wet and stormy day. I suppose we shouldn't moan too much as yesterday was quite hot and sunny.

However tomorrow is the start of September and orange and brown leaves can already be seen. There is a slight nip in the air and a smell of autumn all around.

Russia: Biting Off more than we can chew (and agreeing when to bite)

The ruins of Tskhinvali after Russia and Georgia fought over this town. The West in general has quite a lot on its plate already before having to bail out President Saakashvili for his rather rash expedition here.

Since the conflict between Russia and Georgia started a few weeks ago, many commentators (both those I genuinely respect and some "others"!) have written or spoken of the potential for a "new cold war" and the need to challenge Russia in it current tendencies.

Before I start to question the overall prevailing wisdom on Russia, I should declare my interests:

1) I have just returned from a week in Moscow where the accounts given on Russian TV and on English speaking but Russian sponsored news outlets give an account of recent events that is almost unrecognisable from the general "BBC/CNN" version of events we have in the west.

2) My wife is Russian by nationality but has Ukrainian parents and a Russian uncle and many Russian friends. Her family and friends demonstrate the reality of what happens when a big country splits into smaller component parts. Real people get stuck on all sides the new borders and calling everyone one side of new border "Russian" and everyone the other side of the side of a new border "Ukrainian" is extremely arbitrary and belies the more complex reality millions of families who are scattered either side of a new border. The same would be true of the UK if it were to split tomorrow. After all, some of the most powerful people who rule over a majority English population are Scottish and Welsh and many English would remain in an independent Scotland. Many other families have both Scottish and English parts.

This introduction is necessary as I realise with that combination of family background I will certainly offend someone reasonably close to me !(in the unlikely event they read this).

Firstly to the recent events themselves. My understanding from reading a variety of different accounts is that Georgia fired the initial artillery rounds and rockets onto the South Ossettian capital, Tskhinvali. To balance that I should also note that South Ossetian separatists, to some extent sponsored by Russia had been provoking the Georgian authorities for a long time. It is also true that the fact that most of South Ossetia has Russian passports is a little more than a goodwill gesture from Russia to a people who identify more closely with Moscow than Tbilisi. Prime Minister Putin is widely known to loathe Georgian President Saakashvili and giving Russian passports to people within the borders of Georgia was probably an effective way of annoying Saakashvili.

That said, my personal conclusion is that Georgia's response to Russian backed provocation was disproportionate. What is shown less frequently on Western TV is that the South Ossetian capital was extremely heavily damaged by Georgian weaponry. Once that happened it was unrealistic to not expect Russian to retaliate.

The brief occupation of large parts of Georgia was about demonstrating power over a much smaller neighbour. At a basic level a large country dominating a small country is not very appealing. Russia also worked on "degrading" Georgia's military by sinking boats, blowing up army bases and carting away weaponry. Again this is not appealing but I would suggest a reality of war. If Russia had walked past an army base without damaging it, it would have been a first in the history of military occupation.

There were however extremely unsavoury and non-standard elements to the Russian backed forces. These were mainly South Ossetian militia who burned down some Georgian villages and allegedly killed some villagers. I say "allegedly" as although I have read accounts from witnesses as far as I know these have not been verified by western media.

The Caucasus themselves are an extremely troubled area. Chechnya is nearby and Russians have suffered at the hands of Chechen terrorists, their own in-house Islamic militants. Bordering South Ossetia, North Ossetia includes the town of Beslan where 300 Russian children died at the hands of terrorists and a bodged rescue mission in 2004. Therefore the Caucasus are not tranquil Surrey and the average Russian could be forgiven for having a jaded view of goings on there.

However I do acknowledge the reality that Russia is trying to extend its influence beyond its internationally recognised borders. In addition to the Georgian breakaway areas, this includes the Crimea (it was rather arbitrarily made part of SSR Ukraine in 1954 having previously been part of Russia), Transdniester in Moldova and potentially the areas with majority Russian populations in the Baltic states, notably Latvia.

These are all likely areas of contention in the coming months and years for two reasons:

1) The majority population in these areas feel more Russian than part of the state they are currently in
2) It suits Russia to destabilise these states and extend its influence.

The two points are intertwined and while the Western media stresses 2), this would not be possible without 1).

So, back to "biting off more than we can chew". While it is laudable to talk of defending small states, it is as someone I don't often quote once said "time to get real".

The reality is Russia cannot be fought out of the areas it currently occupies in the internationally recognised borders of Georgia. While Russia sheds no tears about destabilising Georgia the other reality is there are many people in these areas who welcome Russia. The same would be true in Crimea, Transdniester and part of Latvia.

The same would most certainly not be true in Poland where Russia would be unwelcome by anybody. This brings us to a term much over-used in the Georgia conflict; "red lines". Russia was said to have crossed many red lines in Georgia. These red lines turned out to be rather meaningless as nothing happened when they were crossed, least of all to Russia.

So it is time for the West to agree some "real red lines", lines that Russia knows it cannot cross without provoking a united Western response and not a series of PR related trips by political leaders new (Sarkozy) and aspiring (Cameron).

The reason for this less than idealistic approach is "getting real". It is not "getting real" to demand Russia leaves South Ossetia today. The only real power that could cause that, the US, is more than busy in Iraq and Afghanistan. While we hardly dare to say it too loud, Iraq seems to be getting better but Afghanistan and potentially Pakistan is getting worse. Benazir Bhutto's widower said yesterday the world should acknowledge it is loosing the war on terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This needs addressing and addressing urgently. Pakistan's frontier province faces large number of Al Qaeda foreign fighters including Arabs, Uzbeks and Chechens. Last week 10 French commandos were killed by the Taliban in Afghanistan, a big loss for France and the casualties of all countries in Afghanistan continue to mount.

Last week in Sochi, Russian President Medvedev, isolated by Western criticism, met with Syrian President Assad in Sochi to discuss military cooperation. There are big dangers here of an isolated Russia making new "friends" with countries such as Iran and Syria. While this hardly puts Russia in good light, how much worse it will be for the West to face Islamic extremists, rogue states and a nuclear superpower in an unholy alliance.

This may seem far fetched and it is clear that would be a fragile alliance. However it seems an unnecessary risk from the west choosing to wage war on too many fronts.

My view is that Russia and the West have more in common than divides them. For one, Russia and the West both face Islamic extremism at home and abroad. Chechen militants would be equally happy to set off bombs in Moscow or at US bases in Afghanistan. On my visit to Russia last week, not once was I faced with negative sentiment. I think a visit to some Islamic countries would be rather different. There is no real appetite for a big conflict with the West in Russia. The West needs Russian oil and gas but Russia needs Western revenue in return.

Russians do feel there are some double standards however. Foremost amongst these double standards is Kosovo. Kosovo was historically integral to the Serbian state, an ally of Russia. Despite allocations of attrocities such as organ harvesting and former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton warning of the dangers of Kosovan independence (including Islamic extremism in Europe), the West chose to recognise the independence this year. To now object to the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia seems inconsistent to say the least.

The difficult lesson which many may not agree with is that the borders of the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic do not always make the logical international borders of the Russian Federation. There are two ways of dealing with this:

1) Accept that some "adjustments" will be made in the coming years but only tolerate this in areas where majority Russian populations exist.
2) Strengthen Western military to such an extent that it can both fight the war on Terror and pose a meaningful threat to Russian expansion.

At all costs avoid hollow threats as these both antagonise Russia but do not help its near neighbours. This is the worst of all worlds and is what has happened in the last few weeks.

Finally, accepting that "we are where we are", the West needs to agree meaningful "red lines" over which Russia must not cross without receiving a meaningful military threat. One obvious red line is the Polish border.

Whatever the agreements and disagreements on this, a key point is the need to "get real". In the real world military force can still change realities and such force can come from all sides. The need for a strong military to defend our freedoms and those of our allies is vital. Anyone who feels in the least bit concerned by recent events should be supporting a stronger military than we currently have. While I caution against biting off more than we can chew, it would be useful to have some teeth in the first place. It would also be more than useful that the West agree at what point Russia can expect to be bitten rather than the meaningless barking of recent weeks. My own view is that in the current world order, with plenty of conflicts ongoing, a major exercise to "defend" areas of majority Russian population in Russia's near neighbours is unrealistic and unwise.

The sad reality maybe that just as the world needs it more, the US lead by President Obama will turn away from military reality and opt for "smiling diplomacy" and hollow words instead. I suspect Obama has a few supporters in the Russian army.....

The main hope from recent events is more people will be awoken to the reality of the world and the need for adequate armed forces to defend that which we value. If we don't we should not be surprised when someone with such forces takes what we value for themselves. Focusing on adequate defence requirements and concluding the war on terror is probably a great priority than starting an adventure in Caucasus.

Russia can be made to see reason but it will need clear agreement on where the "red lines" are first and a certainty that force is available to defend the red lines in future.

UPDATE 31st August. For those who are interested in this subject, Joanie at Allegiance and Duty Betrayed kindly posted this article on her excellent blog. It received a range of comments and responses that certainly gave me cause for thought and may be of interest to others. It can be seen here.

In "Imperial Moscow"

I am currently on a work related trip to Moscow. While this is a very topical place to be right now, time precludes putting too many thoughts to paper for the moment. Below are a few "snaps" I took with my mobile phone. Moscow is hot and humid right now so there is no danger of the snow at least one person in London told me to look out for :-)



On a humid August evening in Moscow Russian policemen, of various sizes and shapes, guard access to Red Square waiting for a "VIP" to leave the Kremlin. The domes of St. Basils cathedral dominate the background.



The yellow sun blazes over Red Square, Moscow



Red Square after dark.

You have to wonder about the President of Georgia

The man who just last week ordered an artillery and rocket assault on a largely civilian but rebel province of his country has done quite well in terms of global sympathy. Nicolas Sarkozy, Condoleezza Rice and David Cameron (no less!) have all made the pilgramage to Tiblisi this week.

Of course the level of Russian response has been highly questionable and the thuggish elements of South Ossettian militia and Chechen fighters have done no favours for Russia's international image. I still maintain, unless or until someone can prove to me otherwise, that in the face of an artillery assault on their rebelious allies, Russia was obliged to react with force in some way.

I intend to write more fully on this shortly and would welcome contrary views. However so far I am not too impressed by the partiality of the mainstream media.

Below is a short clip that shows the President of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, eating his tie! It is from the BBC in London and not some Russian propoganda agency so it would seem authentic. You have to wonder....

Eclipse Tonight

Depending on if the clouds ever clear it should be possible to see a partial lunar eclipse tonight, in London and much of the world.

I could find disappointingly little on UK websites but it is described here on an Irish website.
Somewhat ominously, in view of recent events in the Caucuses and elsewhere, if the moon is visible it may appear blood red.

Inconsistent and Disproportionate- the oily road to South Ossetia

Whatever the many disagreements it is possible to have about South Ossetia and the conflict between Georgia and Russia, most people would have to agree that it is a sorry mess.

While not being an apologist for the Kremlin, the trigger for this episode seems to have been a Georgian attack on its South Ossetian minority. While this follows years of dispute and months of escalating tension, the Georgian use of artillery and rockets against a civilian town seems to have been disproportionate and rash.

It was disproportionate because civilians rather than Russian soldiers seem to have been the main victims. If the figures of 1,500 to 2,000 South Ossetians being killed are correct, then this was an equivalent of a Russian 9/11. It was rash as in the face of such provocation it seems inconceivable that Russia would not have counter-attacked.

Russia in turn is now portrayed as the attacker. This is inconsistent as when the US and Israel retaliate against those who kill their people, this is not portrayed as attack. Russia's response is in turn seen as disproportionate, at least by the country that gave the world "Shock and Awe".

This inconsistency is unlikely to go unnoticed in Russia. Or rather as Georgian troops return from Iraq, Russia is unlikely to take lectures about not retaliating for attacks.

However even from a Russian perspective the goals of this exercise seem vague. It is possible for them to occupy the whole of Georgia but they seem reluctant to do this. They could reduce Georgia to ruins as "punishment". This is a possibility and becomes more likely as the fighting goes on. It is however difficult to understand what the point in that is.

What is more certain is there is little help Georgia can count on. It took the first step but now seems destined to suffer the consequences. Russia is too strong to be challenged "in its own back yard" by an America engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan and apparently eager to leave the former. Britain is over stretched and in any case too small to make a difference alone. There are no other European forces of note, with the possible exception of France and it seems improbable France would started action in the Caucuses. In summary Russia seems able to do what it likes and everyone who drives cars and heats their homes can fund the Russian attack through the oil and gas they buy.

This is the disturbing reality of the balance of power in the world. It was coming to this but Georgia's rash action just got us there a little quicker along with the recognition of Kosovo as independent and the inconsistent treatments handed out in the Balkans.

The main lesson of this episode is that armed forces will always matter in this world. We may feel cocooned in our city and live a life of work, leisure and shopping. However in the real world freedom is only as certain as the forces who exist to defend it. With Europe's feeble forces and America's tired and overstretched army, the reality is that others can move into the fill the vacuum.

8/8/08 Meanwhile not in China......

Russia and Georgia seem to be at war.

It is not realistic or reasonable to expect a military superpower to let its citizens be killed by an external force as seems to have happened to Russians in South Ossetia, the disputed region of Georgia.

In terms of timing the Chinese see today (8/8/08) as a lucky day. It is potentially lucky for Russia as they have two weeks to do whatever they want in Georgia while the world's media is watching races in Beijing. If Russia releases its might it would seem Georgia doesn't stand a chance. For peace in that region we can only hope that both sides show restraint.

However in reality Russia may want to use this opportunity to prove its strength. The list of complaints from Russia over the last decade is long from the loss of its satellite republics, NATO expansion to its borders and even the recent attempt to shift the loyalities of its Balkan ally Serbia.

The recent developments conceal the underlying currents in that Russia has the force, the wealth and most importantly the oil to dominate more than it has until recently.

A thoroughly nasty tale of commuting to work in London

How awful this tale was today.

A woman was commuting to work by train and challenged two men for smoking on the station platform. The result was she ended up on the track narrowly missing electrocution and fortunate to escape with just a broken wrist.

It is not at all typical of a normal trip into work but is symptomatic of the everyday aggression and nastiness that seems to build up amongst people commuting into the capital.

One day we may retire to the country !

Outside the Bird's Nest

A group of pro-Tibetan British and American protestors in Beijing today:

Beijing 2008: Bombs, Earthquakes, Typhoons, Smog, Protests and a bit of sport too......

The 2008 Olympics were always destined for controversy.

The location, a capital of a nation with a brutal communist past that has metamorphosed into a capitalist based superpower without apparent need for apologies or political freedom, raises concerns amongst many.

However, something I have become increasingly aware of over the last few months is these concerns are far from universal. Many are happy to let bygones (the deaths of 70 million to name one bygone) be bygones. Firstly the present generation of Chinese are immensely proud of hosting the Games and I guess this is something that is not wrong in itself. Secondly the International Olympic Committee and their allies want the Games to succeed and anything that threatens that are nothing but "inconvenient truths". Thirdly the cocktail of apathy and ignorance that seems to stupefy most of us, most of the time is not to be under-estimated. While some know that "bad things happened in China", some do not and many more do not want to be troubled by such thoughts anyway. Let not the deaths of tens of millions in the last 60 years get in the way of a good sporting event today !

While bushy haired Serbs get carted off to the Hague to face "justice" over a civil war in where horrors were committed by all sides, no Chinese will ever face the same "justice" (however that is defined) for the misdeeds inflicted on the Citizens of the People's Republic of China. China is just too rich, powerful and sensitive to bother with Debating Society notions of human rights abuses, torture and the rest.

So the Olympics are going ahead. Yet the voices of freedom will not be completely silenced. The earth itself seems to be protesting with an earthquake in Sichuan yesterday and typhoons in Hong Kong and Macau today. The smog of Beijing has returned for now until the chemical marvels of cloud seeding kick in again. Today protests reached Beijing. Two crazy but brave Brits and two crazy but brave Americans unfurled a "Free Tibet" banner outside the Birds Nest stadium. A far more nasty and sinister protest is surfacing in the wild west of China with Muslim Turkic brutally murdering 16 policemen.

The Olympics should on balance however "pass off" ok. There are 100,000 soldiers said to be on stand by in Beijing with anti-aircraft weaponry protecting all the key sites. Sometime in the next few weeks some sport will happen too, some medals will be won and some pleasure shared.

Let not all of us, whether watching or not, forget all that has gone before and all that is still to come in this vast and fascinating country of China.

Domestic Gas Prices: Time for a cold shower ?

This week saw the announcement that British Gas is raising its prices an incredible 35 %.

Time for cold showers, I say. I remain a minority voice in my household :-)

A quick search of the web showed this article extolling the benefits of cold showers. As this week has been sometimes hot and almost continually humid, it seems ideal weather to experiment with this. My verdict: they can be particularly refreshing and invigorating. That may however be a different story in November !

However that is my suggestion for the nation to save a massive amount of gas and teach British Gas a lesson at the same time !

Dancing in the Library

Once upon a time libraries were for reading in and nothing more ! Well no more apparently. Aside from all technologies (internet, DVDs, CDs) being catered for, some libraries in London are becoming places of performance and meeting.

Last weekend our local library paid host to a troop of Russian dancers. Here on a slightly lighter note are some photos of dancing in the library.

I am reliably informed that this is not a typical image of modern Russia :-)



Not dancing but waiting...


Dancing


Waiting


Dancing



"Who's that fool (or similar !) taking photos when we are not performing ?" (they might have being saying !!)

Forgetting our "inner Radovan"

I am sure I am not alone in finding the reappearance of Radovan Karadzic an extraordinary tale.

There are so many points I would like to make about this story but I will try and limit myself to a few key issues.

Firstly, the sheer improbability of a European political leader (albeit a Balkan one in the context of a civil war) being able to just disappear for 12 years. While the former Yugoslavia has had its fair share of troubles, it is not Afghanistan. It is accessible by numerous budget airlines, the Adriatic coast is a popular tourist destination, many of the former Yugoslav countries are already in the EU or failing that border an EU country and Belgrade this year paid host to the Eurovision song contest (no less!). Therefore it seems extraordinary that a face so frequently on TV screens in the 1990s and never far out of the news since then could simply disappear and carry on living in the capital of Serbia.

One telling comment I saw this week was in response to a Times article. To paraphrase, the article noted that there was astonishment that Mr. Karadzic had been found living in the centre of Belgrade and not hiding in the mountains like Osama bin Laden. One reader commented "How do we do know that Osama bin Laden is not living in London and claiming Incapacity benefit". In the light of this story, we probably don't know that he isn't.

Secondly, it is one thing to go into hiding for 12 years but whereas I suspect most people finding themselves being hunted worldwide with a $5 million bounty on their heads, would probably stay inside for the rest of their lives going out only if absolutely necessary, Mr. Karadzic revealed some rare qualities in taking on a new career. How unlikely it seems to fail in political leadership during a civil war and take on a new career as a "new age therapist", a "spiritual explorer" or "bearded medic" as he has been variously described. Mr. Karadzic as a qualified psychiatrist had some basis for this line although it seems he has branched out in the "alternative" sphere.

Thirdly, having taken on a new career when over 50 to also do rather well at it, having a website, giving lectures, attending conferences and even according to latest reports going overseas to treat patients/clients (to Vienna apparently).

Some commentators are working hard to explain the difference between the old and new Radovan. I have read explanations that the emotional detachment necessary to practice medicine makes someone well placed to be a mass murderer (Dominic Lawson, Independent) while having a swipe at new age "quackery" at the same time.

These attempts to explain or compartmentalise apparent evil are utlimately as dangerous as the evil itself. The reason for this is those who seek to link evil in others with a career choice, trendy beliefs that they do not share, a difficult childhood they did not have etc overlook one main unsettling reality. If you want to see someone who has the potential to murder, to shell a neighbour's city, to round up people into camps and worse then start by looking in the mirror. As always the in attrocities it is not possible for one person to perpetrate them. They need thousands of assistants and most of them were otherwise unremarkable people.

While Radovan Karadzic may have realised some of his darker side more than many of us, he is not somehow unique or an aberration. He was in the right (or wrong) place at the right (or wrong time). True, he has certain talents that make him a leader and someone who can influence people. However I do not believe there is anything uniquely evil about Radovan Karadzic compared to the rest of us.

This is also why it should not be so surprising that he could have taken up a "caring" career apparently have some success in the field of autism where the limitations of conventional medicine are well known.

There is good as well as evil in Radovan Karadzic as there is in everyone else. That is of course not to absolve him of any wrong doing he has done.

However Mr. Karadzic was operating in the context of a civil war when there were attrocities on all sides. This was no one sided slaughter, although the Serbs undoubtedly had some military strengths. Elsewhere in Bosnia they were not so strong and had attrocities perpetrated against them. They were also operating under the dangerous emotion of fear remembering how Croats allied to the Nazis had slaughtered Serbs in the Second World War. Additionally the Bosnian Muslims now celebrating Karadzic's capture had formed an SS Division under Heinrich Himmler complete with a muslim Mufti.

Born in 1945, Karadzic would have no doubt been well aware from his parents and others of the war time attrocities perpetrated against Serbs and how the Serbians had formed the backbone of anti-Nazi partisan activity in Yugoslavia. After the war ethnic differences were successfully if forcefully cemented in Tito's communist Yugoslav state. "1989 and all that" lead to the collapse of communism and quickly the collapse of Yugoslavia, hastened by Germany's hasty and arguably unfortunate (given the history) recognition of Croatian independence.

The collapse of the old Yugoslav state lead to each ethnic group seeking the best possible outcome for its own. Multi-party elections resulted in ethnic groupings and then eventually succession and war. The Serbs sought to build a "greater Serbia" fearing for their minorities in the newly emerging states. Arguably remembering the events of 45 years previously this fear was not entirely baseless.

A brutal war followed (are any wars not brutal ?) with largely incompetent attempts by the UN to broker peace. Alexander Ivanko and Yasushi Akashi were two of the public faces of the UN attempt who seemed to be on TV screens almost daily in the mid 90s. The meloncholy Ivanko and the ever cheerful Akashi formed a strange double act at the time. The EU proved its enormous limitations too and was unable to stop a war in Europe despite its claims to the opposite. The war only ended in 1995 with US and UK involvement, the Dayton Agreement setting the borders that had been formed in battle.

Karadzic had been leader of the Bosnian Serbs, an unusual character, qualified pyschiatrist, former football coach, convicted fraudster and latterly a leader in a nasty civil war who was instantly recogniseable with a mop of greying hair. He made a convenient lightning rod for the crimes of many. While the real power lay with Milosevic in Belgrade at the time there was no wish to pin charges on him.

Karadzic was indicted on war crimes in 1995 and disappeared from view in 1996. Since then much has changed in the region, not least the deposing, circus-like trial and death of Milosevic, the Kosovan war, allied bombing of Belgrade and desire of the EU amongst others to cement Serbia into a Western identity and prevent it becoming a Russian "bridgehead" into Europe.

There are therefore many good reasons for the capture of Karadzic. However they are probably different to the official ones. This does not seem so much about justice as a political agenda (why were comparable Croat and Bosnian leaders not been indicted ?; why has Kosovan organ harvesting from Serb prisoners gone largely uninvestigated and completely unpunished?; why is this conflict always presented in terms of good guys and bad guys when everyone seems pretty tarnished ?)

The simple answer to all this is this is not really about Radovan Karadzic but about a wider political game. The MI6 involvement in the apprehension of Mr. Karadzic is a pointer to this.

His impending extradition to the Hague may serve some notional point scoring or even be portrayed as "justice". However the reality seems more doubtful. Sending a 63 year old man to the Netherlands, who since 1996 has been living a double life and following a second career will in reality achieve very little. The Milosovec trial was a circus with the former Serbian leader exploiting the weaknesses of the institution to the maximum extent. The fact he died of a heart attack before a verdict was even passed seemed to be a final show of defiance. There seems some cultural misunderstanding that taking a Serb to the rarified legal environment of the Hague will in some make all Serbs see the error of their recent history and lead them on a "noble" path to EU membership. They may want EU membership if it offers new markets and new job opportunities but a trial in the Hague is more likely to harden than change their outlook. Mr. Karadzic has every chance of playing the part of a heroic Serb facing up to a rather conceited bunch of west European judges and running rings round them in the process.

At 63, with a variety of careers behind him and worldwide notoriety to boot, he has little to loose. How much healthier if he could be tried for his crimes in a Serbian court or Balkan region court. That would enable the whole region to face up to its troubled past and realise that evil has been perpetrated on all sides. That seems a more likely route to future peace.

Instead the unusual Mr. Karadzic will be blamed for all the evils of the balkans in the 1990s overlooking the fact that he probably never fired a gun. Of course leaders should be held responsible for their orders but in a civil war nothing would have happened but for thousands of volunteers on all sides seeking to avenge a troubled past and in their eyes pave the way to a brighter future.

Western commentators making ridiculous statements about a medical training or belief in alternative therapies paving the way for mass murder are well wide of the mark. This was a Balkan tragedy born out of a tortured history in which all sides were guilty. "Justice" will only exist if it is even handed and based on truth. While Radovan Karadzic was no angel, all sides share in the guilt for thousands of deaths in the 1990s. Croat and Bosnian nazis sowed the seeds for future conflict in the 1940s. Willing volunteers fanned the flames in the 1990s. The UN was useless and the EU no better leading to bloodshed on its doorstep.

Last but not least the human capacity for evil as well as good was exhibited by all. This is something that is possible in all of us in all countries. In cheering the capture of Radovan Karadzic let us not feel too smug about our own righteousness whether personally or in our own countries.

We all, like Radovan Karadzic, have the capactity for great evil as well as enormous good and can demonstrate them both in our lives. As Radovan Karadzic faces the rest of his life in a Dutch prison, let us not forget our own "inner Radovan".

NOTE: I am aware that some could interpret this article as being pro-Serbian. That is not the intention. For the record I have no links to Serbia, have never visited the country but have enjoyed a visit to Croatia and very briefly to Bosnia. I am trying to use this story to illustrate a wider point on the human condition and the inconsistent treatment of parties to the Balkan wars of the 1990s.

London Fox

This fox really is in London, well outer London and our garden to be precise !

He was sound asleep in the sun on the garden shed roof at 11am yesterday morning but woke up when he became aware of my presence. He disappeared just after I took the bottom photo.

Foxes are a common sight in the outer London suburbs and sometimes much further in.

Shooting Dogs

I saw this film for the first time last week. As in the case of most good films it is difficult to say that the short trailer above truly does it justice. Nonetheless it gives a brief flavour of the film.

It must surely be one of the most powerfully moving films ever made and covers so many important subjects in under two hours.

To summarise briefly it is the tale of an idealistic young English gap year student who volunteers to work in Rwanda for a year. He works in a school run by a rather weary but humane Catholic priest played by John Hurt.

What would have been a familiar tale of a year working in a poor country before going to University becomes something far more and immeasurably more daunting due to the outbreak of genocidal violence against the Tutsi minority by the Hutu majority.

The speed and brutality of the violence often commited by former neighbours is shocking. The school that is also used as a base by Belgian UN peace keepers quickly becomes a sanctuary for thousands of terrified Tutsis.

The outcome of the story, as told by history is sadly obvious. The UN is tied up by its mandates and unable to do anything, while the Clinton regime in power in 1994 becomes caught up in characteristicly irrelevant legalisms such as the difference between genocide and "genocidal acts" as a justification for not getting involved. Other powers no doubt used similar excuses. The UN peace keepers ultimately fail to keep the peace or even save lives. They are reduced to simply "shooting dogs" who feed on the thousands of dead in the streets as a futile attempt to maintain "public health".

The film is a reminder of the world's failure to stop the slaughter of up to a million people in 100 days while it watched daily on its televisions. It is reminder of humanity's propensity for evil as well as its capacity for amazing courage and self-sacrifice.

It is a most disturbing watch but also a powerfully moving one. With Africa again in the news as Mugabe's regime intimidates those who seek to challenge it, one has to wonder could such horrific events again play out on the world's television screens while we are powerless to intervene ?

Finally, the one message of hope is the film itself. Unlike the equally acclaimed "Hotel Rwanda" (which I have not seen but hope to) the film is largely shot in Rwanda in the same locations that genocide occurred barely a decade earlier. Many of those who appear in the film are survivors of the genocide. The last thing the film shows is the capacity for forgiveness and hope amongst those who have suffered so terribly.

I commend this film to all who are interested in Africa and in humanity in general.

Torch in Tibet

Earlier this year, I became very interested in the issue of Tibetan freedom, thrown into the spotlight by the 2008 Olympics being held in Beijing.

There were protests in London (which in my own small way I was involved in), Paris, San Francisco and elsewhere to varying but generally lesser extents.

What I did learn from following this story closely was that many Chinese appeared strongly behind their government on the issue of Tibet and in a way the external criticism, valid though it was, may have served to strengthen the Chinese government rather than weaken it.

Bombastic internet posts and comments proclaimed "Tibet was and is and always will be part of China" as if this was an almost religious doctrine.

Then the earthquake hit China killing tens of thousands and creating millions in need of a home. Floods have in turn ravaged parts of China making this a pretty bad year for that country.

Due to the earthquake, the floods and many more significant events in the world, the torch has ceased to mean too much to anyone apart from possibly those sinister guards that have travelled with it round the world.

Nonetheless, this weekend the thing that all the protestors didn't want to happen, did happen- the torch went through Tibet.

I don't suppose this changes much for ordinary Tibetans but when the Olympics start in about 6 weeks time, I will be thinking of the rather dismal journey that the torch has taken before it arrived in Beijing.

This BBC blog includes an account of the short torch ceremony in Lhasa this weekend.

Running on Empty

Maybe it is not representative but our local petrol station has no fuel today. Yesterday it struggled down to one pump (out of twelve) of unleaded while having diesel fully available.

Today it put up a notice proclaiming "no fuel". Apparently this is not the only garage having such problems. The cause of this is the Shell tanker drivers dispute resulting in a four day drivers' strike (for more pay) but somehow, presumably through people topping up "just in case", it is resulting in shortages at other garages.

It highlights how precarious fuel supplies are in this country and a reminder that in a few days in 2000 a blockade of fuel depots emptied the roads of the whole country.

Things should be back to normal on Tuesday (for a few days at least) but it goes to show that "normal life" hangs by a thread when fuel supplies are disrupted on our crowded island.

Hurray for Ireland !

At last, out of the seemingly endless desert of dispiriting news stories, we arrive in a rare oasis where something in the wider world brings us cheer.

The people of Ireland, the only country in the EU to offer its people a free vote on the Lisbon Treaty have clearly rejected it in the referendum result that was announced today.

Where Denmark, France and Holland have gone before (to name just three) Ireland has followed today and shown that the ordinary people in European countries stand against their leaders who seem broadly wedded to the concept of "ever closer Union" in the EU.

This vote is not about leaving the EU which has offered Ireland especially many benefits. It is however about calling a halt to the march towards an ever more united Europe. Free trade, ease of travel and greater understanding have brought Europe much. However endless interference in national issues, continued corruption in Brussels and Strasbourg and a incredibly conceited attitude amongst most European leaders have united the people of Europe against many aspects of the EU.

The people of Ireland were given what the people of Britain should have been given: a chance to express their views. The way the people of Ireland have voted puts them in the debt of all those who have concerns about the ever growing power of the EU.

Thank you Ireland ! Now all that needs to happen if for Gordon Brown to recognise that the Treaty of Lisbon is dead.

Petrol use falls 20 %

Apparently people like me really are driving less and using less petrol. Either that or they are very successfully hypermiling ! Basic economics is correct I suppose....

"I love the world"

A bit cheesy but rather well done (it's only a minute long). At least a break from the current "doom and gloom" :-) Thanks to Three Beautiful Things for sharing this.

Towards $150 a barrel- should Brits learn to "hypermile" ?

I am sure many are aware that the oil price hit two new records on Friday.

First it exceeded $139 a barrel for the first time and second it recorded its biggest ever one day increase (around $11 or a 9% rise in one day).(FT story here ).

There seems no end in sight to the increases. Aside from the underlying factors of growing demand and the threat of dwindling supplies, a steady stream of alarming geo-political stories keep it bubbling ever higher. The latest was the suggestion from an Israeli minister that an attack on Iran is now "inevitable" due to the fact that it's nuclear programme is apparently continuing unabated*.

The effect at the petrol pump is seen each day. Today I paid £1.17 a litre. I am slightly afraid to convert that in into gallons but it is definitely well above the £5 a gallon level.

The result for me has been to largely stop using the car. In fact I drove today for the first time in 3 weeks since I drove back from Heathrow airport.

This has been relatively easy for me for two reasons:

1) I live in outer London, commute to work by train and most other facilities are in walking distance.

2) My wife and son have been visiting family in Ukraine so there has only been me to think about. I wanted to see if I could manage without a car and found I could. This would be much more difficult with a baby and I probably won't try when he returns !

The only times I would have definitely used a car and haven't were in visiting my Mother in Kent. I took the train instead and found quite a civilised group of weekend train users. From my experience this wasn't the case 10 years ago when weekend trains always felt slightly dodgy and full of those too poor to own a car. That is a gross generalisation and certainly unfair to some. However now the weekend trains are full of those too poor (or stingy !) to buy fuel but possibly having a car sitting outside their house.

Anyway today I returned to the car as I needed to take some rubbish to our local tip. As I was using the car I carried on to visit my family and then had my painful price experience at the petrol station.

I recently heard a story on the BBC about the US phenomenon of "hypermiling". Despite the name, it is actually a very simple concept of driving your car in a way that maximises fuel efficiency. Like anything a minority become rather obsessive about it but the basics are very straight forward and include:

a) Stop as little as posssible as stopping and starting uses the most fuel. So when you see a red light ahead slow down and aim to reach the red light when it changes to green. This is much more efficient than racing to the red light, stopping and then starting again when it changes to green.

b) Inflate your tyres to the maximum recommended level. Soft tyres are severely fuel inefficient.

c) Avoid excessive speed. The most fuel efficient speed is supposed to be about 55 mph. Car manufacturers always quote the maximum fuel efficiency of the vehicles at a constant 56 mph.

d) Avoid carrying around unnecessary junk in the car. Anything that makes the car heavier will reduce fuel efficiency.

See this site if you are interested in more.

If fuel keeps rising further I can see hypermiling gaining more followers, out of necessity rather than fun. Today I tried driving at a constant 55 mph on the motorway and was surprised that rather than being honked at to go faster, I looked in my mirror to see a top of the range BMW and a Porsche Cayenne happily following me at the same speed ! The oil price rise is really causing some changes ! My only doubt is that I am not sure if I can convince my wife on her return that it is best to drive at 55 mph on the motorway !

*(It is probably a question for a much a bigger article but doesn't the fact that the US, the UK and others now appear to have lost their appetite for any further military action of a "policing" kind now free middle ranking powers to take "the law" into their own hands ? The world policeman has had enough so prepare for some local vigilates? As history shows the world is much less stable without a globally recognised superpower. There was no globally recognised superpower in 1939, 1914 or 1870 to name just three years that heralded major wars.)

When they banned alcohol on the London Underground

It may not have been the wisest decision of the new London mayor Boris Johnson to choose to ban alcohol on all London transport starting from midnight on a Saturday night. However that is what he did do which lead to a "rebellious" party on the London underground on Saturday night.

I wasn't there (much too old and respectable !) but I understand from those that were that it is was mainly a good natured event, albeit with some sprinkling of trouble. The irony is that not many people drunk alcohol on the underground anyway but lots of people drunk alcohol when told they couldn't.

Overall not having alcohol on buses and trains sounds a good idea, particularly underground. However Saturday's party is a reminder that the flip side to that is that not many Londoners like being told what not to do.

"Free" rather than "Uncontacted": Leave the Amazon Tribe Alone

There is something inspiring about the Amazon tribe who are described as "uncontacted". "Uncontacted" I understand to mean that they have had no contact with anyone in the "modern world". This probably needs a bit of context as if they are homo sapiens (which they certainly look like) they must by definition have a common ancestor with someone living in Croydon or indeed Tokyo. Therefore it is probably more accurate to say they have over time lost contact rather than being eternally uncontacted.

That said I hope, possibly vainly, that they can be left as they are. To be forced into contact with "modern civilisation" will quite possibly kill them as their immune systems would be unable to cope with modern diseases. If that doesn't the thought of them being exposed to all the drivel of the modern world such as reality TV or being signed up for advertising is too horrific to imagine. Fancy one of them be hauled before Richard and Judy in a few years' time !

They look physically stronger than many of us on this planet and as they are completely self-sufficient they have a state of independence from oil companies, banks and the other shackles of modernity that the rest of us can only dream about.

Leave them to be free. The rest of us can only wonder at such a state of freedom and independence.

Ukrainian Orthodox procession

Below is a clip from my recent trip to Ukraine. The scene is an orthodox procession in the town of Vinnitsa. It's a pity they didn't stop the traffic but I guess that adds to the sense of contrast between the stoical procession and the hustle and bustle of buses and trams going past as the rest of the town goes about its normal business.

"Respect"

From Peter Brookes in the Times (of London)

What is particularly depressing about the latest wave of youth murders in London and beyond is the trivial subject matter they start over.

Not that murder over a "big issue" can be justified. However there is at least some rationale, however twisted, over a gang murder than for example seeks to protect a multi-million pound drug business. The mafia and their criminal like tend to kill for a reason, albeit their own distorted reasons.

The youth killings that this weekend reached just two miles from where we live saw the death of an aspiring 18 year old actor who had made it into the latest Harry Potter movie, seem utterly pointless. At most this murder was over a mobile phone. Others apparently occur over a "look".

It comes down to the notion of "respect". A strange notion almost completely divorced from the original definition of the word whereby those willing to use violence expect utter subservience from those around them. To act otherwise is to show "disrepect" and leads to a "punishment". Respect was once a voluntary act showing admiration to those we looked up to. Now it is some fear induced inaction towards those who use violence by those who do not.

It is a sad state of affairs and I am struggling to understand anything more at the moment.

For now, I remember a local family who have lost a son and a brother to senseless violence.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7419185.stm

Back home

I have now been back in England for a few days. I am living a "bachelor" life for a few weeks as my wife and son are with her family in Ukraine.

It is actual rather dull and the house needs a good clean ! I am feeling much less creative than I was hoping.

Maybe this will change. If you hear nothing, then it probably hasn't !

The meaning of work

Below I reproduce an excellent essay from Lucy Kellaway, sometimes known as "agony Aunt of the FT" ! She was talking about the perceptions over work needing to have purpose on BBC radio 4's "A Point of View". I found it incredibly insightful and I am sure many in work especially in offices will find it so too. Lucy Kellaway is nearly always this perceptive and it would be good to hear more from her in future.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/views/a_point_of_view/



It pays the mortgage and gets you up in the morning, but these days workers want more from a job - they want meaning. Just don't go looking for it, says Lucy Kellaway.

Not long ago a man came to our house to unblock the drain. He peered into the stinking manhole, stirred the sewage with a stick and gleefully pronounced that there were several months of back-up in there. He then got to work with a rod and a plunger, and finally with a high-pressure hose - which sent the filthy, stinking mess flying into his face and all over the garden.

While he toiled he cracked jokes, gave me a lesson in the engineering of Victorian drains, and eventually, having cleared the blockage and tidied up as best he could, he got into his van, whistling to himself as he drove away.


We start to demand that our work has a larger meaning. This almost always ends badly, meaning is a bit like happiness - the more you go out looking for it the less you find


Since then I've kept thinking of this contented sewage man, and wondering what exactly it was that he got from his job that so many people doing grander and cleaner ones don't seem to get from theirs.

It strikes me that we are in the middle of an epidemic of meaninglessness at work. Bankers, lawyers, and senior managers are increasingly asking themselves what on earth their jobs mean, and finding it hard to come up with an answer. As the agony aunt on the Financial Times I get asked all the time by successful professionals - what is it all about?

The Austrian psychiatrist, Viktor Frankl wouldn't have been in the least surprised by this. In 1946 he wrote Man's Search for Meaning in which he argued that that our deepest hankerings are not - as Freud thought - of a sexual nature, but are a lust for purpose in life. Frankl spent five years in Nazi prison camps and during that time he worked out that there are three paths to meaning - work, love and suffering.

Gordon Brown, a man who has been doing a certain amount of suffering of late, seems to think that the answer is to strive harder. In a speech last week he said "I aspire for everyone to reach for the light - their ambition. Very simply, I aspire to create an opportunity-rich country where everyone can get on and get up in the lives we live. Never to level down, always to lift up."

Stamp of approval

This doesn't sound much more profound than James Brown's song Sex Machine - Fellas, I'm ready to get up and do my thing - get on up.

It's also dreadfully bad advice, as Brown should know from personal experience. For all those years when Tony Blair was at Number 10, Brown reached for his ambition - but now that he has got on and got up, has he found the light? No, it seems to me that the poor man is floundering around in the dark.

This doesn't mean that ambition is a mistake; it is just that there is no magic to advancement per se. The status and the money go up, but that's it. And then, beset by affluence and by introspection we start to demand that our work has a larger meaning. This almost always ends badly: meaning is a bit like happiness - the more you go out looking for it the less you find.

So where is the real meaning at work? Last week I put the question to various people - starting with our postman. Do you think your job has meaning, I asked him, as he stuffed a fistful of junk mail through our tiny letter box. He looked at me and shrugged. "I'm trying to pay the bills".

Getting paid to do a job is surely the most important sort of meaning there is. Earning enough money to feed and house one's family might be at the bottom of Maslow's hierarchy of needs, but the rest of the edifice depends on having this solid base.

Is the job sick?

As for the work itself, the postman said: "It's not the best job in the world, but I try to keep cheerful. I've always said that if you are unhappy at work, there must be something wrong somewhere else in your life."

He may have been on to something here. In the last few months three people with grand jobs have been involved in three horrible, violent ends. Mark Saunders, a successful barrister, was killed in a police shoot out; Mike Todd the chief constable of Greater Manchester police force was found dead on a hill, gin bottle by his side. And last summer the insurance millionaire Alberto Izaga, suffered a shocking breakdown and ended up beating his two-year-old daughter to death.

It is tempting to conclude - as many columnists have - that there is something about the intolerable stress and emptiness of these top positions that lead people to breaking point. The jobs are sick and they are making us sick too.

Possibly; but overall, I'm with the postman, in thinking that such problems come from us. I don't believe that these jobs are terribly sick. Instead, these were three unrelated personal tragedies that tell us nothing about work at all.

My search for meaning - and for a pint of milk - then took me to the Turkish corner shop where I asked my question to the man behind the counter. He was looking tired: his shop is open fifteen hours a day so one might think he had no time for meaning. But he said there was a lot of meaning in what he did. "I make a living and I like the people who come to my shop." he said.

Parenting craft

A good point, too. According to a recent survey of work place satisfaction, liking one's work-mates is as important as money in persuading people not to quit. Simply by being friendly and chatting by the coffee machine one is creating meaning... of a sort, which, given how much chatting I do, is quite a comforting thought.

When you have spent a couple of days changing nappies and grilling fish fingers, to be surrounded by adults who don't want their bottoms wiped seems pretty meaningful

The shopkeeper also said he liked the work itself - he takes pleasure in stacking his tiny premises so high with goods that he has just the thing you want when you find the cupboard is bare at 10pm. It's hard running a successful corner shop, and he's good at it.

According to Richard Sennett's new book, The Craftsman, this ability to master a skill and then practice it well satisfies a basic human need. For Sennett, a craftsman doesn't have to make beautiful inlaid cabinets or chisel stone. He could be a software programmer, a cook or even a parent.

This satisfaction in the job itself seems to me the best sort of meaning there is. As a journalist, I survive on those rare jolts of pleasure that come when you find just the right words and get them together in just the right order.

Yet this sort of "craft" meaning isn't open to everyone. Shoving junk mail though letter boxes isn't a craft. Neither, at the other end of the spectrum, is being prime minister. Indeed no jobs that involve managing or leading are crafts, which is one of the things that makes it so particularly hard for managers to find meaning in what they do.

Peace with pointlessness

In fact managing is one of the most thankless jobs in the world. What managers are mainly trying to do is to get other people to do things that they don't want to. To work harder, for a start. Their other primary function is to carry the can, and to get blamed for all sorts of things that probably aren't their fault. Not only are they creating little meaning for themselves, they get blamed for destroying meaning for people below them.

Sennett describes how the craft of doctors and nurses is spoilt by NHS managers and their punishing targets. Teachers bleat endlessly that government guidelines are taking all the joy out of teaching. The other day an RAC man changed my tyre, which he accomplished in about three minutes, and spent the next 10 jabbing data into a hand held computer. He told me that this new bureaucracy had destroyed his pleasure in the job - a complaint echoed by most workers in most jobs. The meetings, the second guessing, the pointless duplication, the politics, we all moan. Just let us do the damned job.

In some ways I'm with the managers, or I would be if they didn't so often make such a hash of it. Hospitals and schools both need targets. Businesses, including the RAC, need to be run efficiently. People hate change, we naturally suspect all new ways of doing things, we scream that the purpose in the job is going, but that's too bad.

Maybe the best way of dealing with pointlessness at work is not to worry too much about it. An acquaintance in advertising tells me how one day he and his colleagues were agonizing over a tiny nuance in a script for a radio commercial. Suddenly he had a jolt of realisation: this was utterly pointless. Since then he has made his peace with the meaninglessness of what he does, and enjoys the job rather more as a result.

Another way of finding work more meaningful is to do less of it. Last week the government extended its plans for flexible working to make it easier for parents to work part time. When I worked a three day week I found the meaning of work was complimented by the meaning of looking after children. Or rather, that each provided a refuge from the meaninglessness of the other. When you have spent a couple of days changing nappies and grilling fish fingers, to be surrounded by adults who don't want their bottoms wiped seems pretty meaningful. And by contrast, having half of one's identity tied up in the rearing of children means that one places fewer impossible demands on the job itself.

A final way of gaining meaning at work is also on the rise: and that is the threat of redundancy. As a result of the credit crunch 55,000 financial sector jobs have already been lost, and more loses are to come. While being fired is the ultimate sign that one's job was meaningless, the relief of escaping the axe could make one so grateful to have work, that one stops asking oneself such awkward questions.

Real Power

I have today removed my "No torch in Tibet" logo from my blog as a mark of respect to all those Chinese who died in Monday's earthquake.

As the Olympic torch relay is now being scaled back this seems yesterday's argument. The Olympics will go ahead in Beijing but no doubt when at least 15,000 people have died in a single event this week, things Olympic must have rather less importance than they once seemed to.

The events in China are terrible and a reminder that even superpowers such as that which China is turning into can suffer at the hands of nature in a scale that is unimaginable. A population of 1.3 billion, a vast army and navy and GDP growing at 10 % is all irrelvant in the face of real power.

Such is humanity's true power in this world, let alone this universe.

May the people of Burma also enjoy the same relief as the people of China. This seems a bit of a vain hope.

Tibet is still oppressed and people in China do not have free speech. However in the face of the earthquake this for now seems a small issue.

May some good yet come out of these tragic events.

Burma

Being in Ukraine, it is a little difficult to follow the news, but it is with sadness that I note that events in Burma are every bit as bad as I feared.

The story seems to be slipping down the news agenda but the military junta is continuing to deny free and proper access to aid agencies.

The is as tragic as it is obvious and thousands more Burmese will die (in addition to the unknown toll already)

As for the military junta's powerful ally, China, they have been silent as far as I can see. Worse still, the mainstream media seems to be missing the fact that China is alone in a position to exert real influence on the Burmese (or Myamese ?) government.

What started as a natural disaster is turning into a manmade catastrophe, aided and abetted by the Burmese government keen to keep a restive population weak and quiet. This in turn is tacitly approved by those Olympic lovers in the Chinese government.

Kiev

I will be a bit quiet for the coming week or so as I am currently in Ukraine visiting my wife's family.

We are currently in Kiev but heading out into the regions tomorrow.

Kiev is in the midst of election fever as they prepare to elect a mayor. In contrast the recent London mayoral election it is a very lively affair with an improbable 97 candidates ranging from Agrarians to communists (and plenty in between!) Nearly every street corner seems to have a tent erected with representatives from various candidates handing out leaflets and balloons to try and woo voters.

It is a bit difficult to judge whether all that is going on is particularly useful but it is certainly democratic and there is freedom of expression for the vast range of candidates, This is in sharp contrast to neighbouring Russia and their recent "coronation" of a presidential election.

Kiev is changing rapidly with a lot of construction, inflation and the usual flash cars of recently acquired wealth (Mercedes, BMW and Range Rover to name a few). That said it is still a calmer gentler version of its Russian sister, Moscow, although it sometimes feels like it is heading that way.

More important than the Olympics ?

As news begins to gather about the mounting death toll from the cyclone to hit Burma, it will be interesting to see what China's reaction is.

Burma is a country tightly controlled by a military junta that despite various mass protests, most recently in 2007 when buddhist monks lead demonstrations, still clings to power.

Burma's closest ally is China and it seems unlikely the country would remain such a harsh dictatorship without Chinese government support.

It is notable that Burma (also known as Myanmar) has so far not formally requested international aid. This is very unusual but highlights the isolated nature of the country and the reluctance of dictatorships to admit any weakness.

China, as a bordering powerful country, has a duty to step in and help quickly. The death toll could very well already be in the tens of thousands.

Never mind the Olympics, never mind the nationalist bombasts about Tibet being eternally part of China, this should be far more important. It is also an opportunity for China to show that despite how many feel about it, it can also be a force for good in this world.

Whether China does help in a tangible way or focuses more on its GDP and its flame tour (sponsored by Coca Cola, Samsung and Lenovo of course) will be an interesting test of character for the emerging superpower.

For the people of Burma, it may be far more than that- a matter of life and death.

Not a new dawn but some fresh air at least.

Untamed: Boris in his pre-haircut days

I welcome Boris's victory as Mayor of London. While the role of Mayor is not as powerful as in some other major cities (in truth largely limited to transport) it is still a significant role and one of great status as a figurehead for the city.

Boris Johnson presents a new face of London, one that has always been here but one largely hidden for many years. Boris is as much part of London as Ken Livingstone his predecessor, but was elected by the outer London suburbs fed up of years of neglect from the centre by Ken who lavished time and money on politically trendy projects in the "inner city" areas of London.

No one says, especially Boris, that everything Ken Livingstone did was awful. He was a genuine leader especially in London's darkest hour of the decade on July 7th 2005 when over 50 people were killed by suicide bombers on the underground and a bus. This, of course, came just one day after London had been awarded the 2012 Olympics. Although I feel unethused about all things Olympian this too was a great achievement.

However he did descend to cronyism and after 8 years in the job can hardly not be said to have had a chance.

There were no other really serious candidates in my opinion so Boris was the obvious choice.

Boris is eccentric and unpredictable. I think there is a certain weariness over politics these days and few are predicting massive change. However if he can achieve something especially in his stated priority of reducing crime that will be welcomed by all.

No one is calling this a new dawn for London. Such hyperbole in best left in 1997. Nonetheless eccentric, intelligent, funny, charming and unpredictable Boris Johnson does represent a breath of fresh air in the leadership of London.

The way of America ?

A key stage was reached in the housing market this week. Nationwide, the largest building society is now recording year on year falls in house prices.

Of course this does not apply everywhere and to everyone but it is the first time since 1996 that on average a house was worth less today than it was a year ago. Previously all the talking was of a slowing rate of increase.

Whether this is the start of something bigger remains to be seen.

Elections

There are elections for the London mayor and London assembly today.

For those unfamiliar, having a mayor in London is a modern creation as it has traditionally been a city comprised of strong boroughs (currently 33).

The mayor has limited power but a significant budget for transport and various pet projects.

The first and only London mayor to date, Ken Livingstone who is running again had his fair share of pet projects.

From my experience commuting to work today the sense of excitement was non-existent ! No one mentioned the elections at work and there was no real evidence apart from the signs outside polling stations.

I have voted and it wasn't for "Ken". Enough said....

Despite this sense of apathy I saw today, I suppose we should be thankful for the choice (if limited !) in free elections.