As the oil price continues to fall (today it virtually collapsed below $80 a barrel) the stubbornly high price of petrol seems ever less justifiable.
I know there is a time lag but funny how the time lag is very short when oil rises but very long when oil falls !
Oil is now little more than half the price of its peak (at $147 a barrel). In London at least you are doing well to find petrol that has fallen more than 10 % from its peak (currently around the £1.06/£1.07 a litre mark).
It's interesting to note that earlier this year the potential for $200 a barrel oil was discussed. This all seems quite a way off now.
At least one economic reason to be cheerful....
Showing posts with label petrol. Show all posts
Showing posts with label petrol. Show all posts
Friday, October 10, 2008
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Oil Falls over 30 %, shame about the petrol
I intend to come back with something more insightful in the near future, but for now time limits me to a moan about petrol prices !
With oil falling below $100 a barrel this week, this represents a near 33 % fall from its peak of $147 in July. Surely for a commodity to fall in price by a third is a massive movement even allowing for the dramatic rise beforehand ?
It is a shame that the petrol stations seem blissfully unaware where the price falls remain mediocre to say the least.
With oil falling below $100 a barrel this week, this represents a near 33 % fall from its peak of $147 in July. Surely for a commodity to fall in price by a third is a massive movement even allowing for the dramatic rise beforehand ?
It is a shame that the petrol stations seem blissfully unaware where the price falls remain mediocre to say the least.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Running on Empty
Maybe it is not representative but our local petrol station has no fuel today. Yesterday it struggled down to one pump (out of twelve) of unleaded while having diesel fully available.
Today it put up a notice proclaiming "no fuel". Apparently this is not the only garage having such problems. The cause of this is the Shell tanker drivers dispute resulting in a four day drivers' strike (for more pay) but somehow, presumably through people topping up "just in case", it is resulting in shortages at other garages.
It highlights how precarious fuel supplies are in this country and a reminder that in a few days in 2000 a blockade of fuel depots emptied the roads of the whole country.
Things should be back to normal on Tuesday (for a few days at least) but it goes to show that "normal life" hangs by a thread when fuel supplies are disrupted on our crowded island.
Today it put up a notice proclaiming "no fuel". Apparently this is not the only garage having such problems. The cause of this is the Shell tanker drivers dispute resulting in a four day drivers' strike (for more pay) but somehow, presumably through people topping up "just in case", it is resulting in shortages at other garages.
It highlights how precarious fuel supplies are in this country and a reminder that in a few days in 2000 a blockade of fuel depots emptied the roads of the whole country.
Things should be back to normal on Tuesday (for a few days at least) but it goes to show that "normal life" hangs by a thread when fuel supplies are disrupted on our crowded island.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Petrol use falls 20 %
Apparently people like me really are driving less and using less petrol. Either that or they are very successfully hypermiling ! Basic economics is correct I suppose....
Sunday, June 08, 2008
Towards $150 a barrel- should Brits learn to "hypermile" ?
I am sure many are aware that the oil price hit two new records on Friday.
First it exceeded $139 a barrel for the first time and second it recorded its biggest ever one day increase (around $11 or a 9% rise in one day).(FT story here ).
There seems no end in sight to the increases. Aside from the underlying factors of growing demand and the threat of dwindling supplies, a steady stream of alarming geo-political stories keep it bubbling ever higher. The latest was the suggestion from an Israeli minister that an attack on Iran is now "inevitable" due to the fact that it's nuclear programme is apparently continuing unabated*.
The effect at the petrol pump is seen each day. Today I paid £1.17 a litre. I am slightly afraid to convert that in into gallons but it is definitely well above the £5 a gallon level.
The result for me has been to largely stop using the car. In fact I drove today for the first time in 3 weeks since I drove back from Heathrow airport.
This has been relatively easy for me for two reasons:
1) I live in outer London, commute to work by train and most other facilities are in walking distance.
2) My wife and son have been visiting family in Ukraine so there has only been me to think about. I wanted to see if I could manage without a car and found I could. This would be much more difficult with a baby and I probably won't try when he returns !
The only times I would have definitely used a car and haven't were in visiting my Mother in Kent. I took the train instead and found quite a civilised group of weekend train users. From my experience this wasn't the case 10 years ago when weekend trains always felt slightly dodgy and full of those too poor to own a car. That is a gross generalisation and certainly unfair to some. However now the weekend trains are full of those too poor (or stingy !) to buy fuel but possibly having a car sitting outside their house.
Anyway today I returned to the car as I needed to take some rubbish to our local tip. As I was using the car I carried on to visit my family and then had my painful price experience at the petrol station.
I recently heard a story on the BBC about the US phenomenon of "hypermiling". Despite the name, it is actually a very simple concept of driving your car in a way that maximises fuel efficiency. Like anything a minority become rather obsessive about it but the basics are very straight forward and include:
a) Stop as little as posssible as stopping and starting uses the most fuel. So when you see a red light ahead slow down and aim to reach the red light when it changes to green. This is much more efficient than racing to the red light, stopping and then starting again when it changes to green.
b) Inflate your tyres to the maximum recommended level. Soft tyres are severely fuel inefficient.
c) Avoid excessive speed. The most fuel efficient speed is supposed to be about 55 mph. Car manufacturers always quote the maximum fuel efficiency of the vehicles at a constant 56 mph.
d) Avoid carrying around unnecessary junk in the car. Anything that makes the car heavier will reduce fuel efficiency.
See this site if you are interested in more.
If fuel keeps rising further I can see hypermiling gaining more followers, out of necessity rather than fun. Today I tried driving at a constant 55 mph on the motorway and was surprised that rather than being honked at to go faster, I looked in my mirror to see a top of the range BMW and a Porsche Cayenne happily following me at the same speed ! The oil price rise is really causing some changes ! My only doubt is that I am not sure if I can convince my wife on her return that it is best to drive at 55 mph on the motorway !
*(It is probably a question for a much a bigger article but doesn't the fact that the US, the UK and others now appear to have lost their appetite for any further military action of a "policing" kind now free middle ranking powers to take "the law" into their own hands ? The world policeman has had enough so prepare for some local vigilates? As history shows the world is much less stable without a globally recognised superpower. There was no globally recognised superpower in 1939, 1914 or 1870 to name just three years that heralded major wars.)
First it exceeded $139 a barrel for the first time and second it recorded its biggest ever one day increase (around $11 or a 9% rise in one day).(FT story here ).
There seems no end in sight to the increases. Aside from the underlying factors of growing demand and the threat of dwindling supplies, a steady stream of alarming geo-political stories keep it bubbling ever higher. The latest was the suggestion from an Israeli minister that an attack on Iran is now "inevitable" due to the fact that it's nuclear programme is apparently continuing unabated*.
The effect at the petrol pump is seen each day. Today I paid £1.17 a litre. I am slightly afraid to convert that in into gallons but it is definitely well above the £5 a gallon level.
The result for me has been to largely stop using the car. In fact I drove today for the first time in 3 weeks since I drove back from Heathrow airport.
This has been relatively easy for me for two reasons:
1) I live in outer London, commute to work by train and most other facilities are in walking distance.
2) My wife and son have been visiting family in Ukraine so there has only been me to think about. I wanted to see if I could manage without a car and found I could. This would be much more difficult with a baby and I probably won't try when he returns !
The only times I would have definitely used a car and haven't were in visiting my Mother in Kent. I took the train instead and found quite a civilised group of weekend train users. From my experience this wasn't the case 10 years ago when weekend trains always felt slightly dodgy and full of those too poor to own a car. That is a gross generalisation and certainly unfair to some. However now the weekend trains are full of those too poor (or stingy !) to buy fuel but possibly having a car sitting outside their house.
Anyway today I returned to the car as I needed to take some rubbish to our local tip. As I was using the car I carried on to visit my family and then had my painful price experience at the petrol station.
I recently heard a story on the BBC about the US phenomenon of "hypermiling". Despite the name, it is actually a very simple concept of driving your car in a way that maximises fuel efficiency. Like anything a minority become rather obsessive about it but the basics are very straight forward and include:
a) Stop as little as posssible as stopping and starting uses the most fuel. So when you see a red light ahead slow down and aim to reach the red light when it changes to green. This is much more efficient than racing to the red light, stopping and then starting again when it changes to green.
b) Inflate your tyres to the maximum recommended level. Soft tyres are severely fuel inefficient.
c) Avoid excessive speed. The most fuel efficient speed is supposed to be about 55 mph. Car manufacturers always quote the maximum fuel efficiency of the vehicles at a constant 56 mph.
d) Avoid carrying around unnecessary junk in the car. Anything that makes the car heavier will reduce fuel efficiency.
See this site if you are interested in more.
If fuel keeps rising further I can see hypermiling gaining more followers, out of necessity rather than fun. Today I tried driving at a constant 55 mph on the motorway and was surprised that rather than being honked at to go faster, I looked in my mirror to see a top of the range BMW and a Porsche Cayenne happily following me at the same speed ! The oil price rise is really causing some changes ! My only doubt is that I am not sure if I can convince my wife on her return that it is best to drive at 55 mph on the motorway !
*(It is probably a question for a much a bigger article but doesn't the fact that the US, the UK and others now appear to have lost their appetite for any further military action of a "policing" kind now free middle ranking powers to take "the law" into their own hands ? The world policeman has had enough so prepare for some local vigilates? As history shows the world is much less stable without a globally recognised superpower. There was no globally recognised superpower in 1939, 1914 or 1870 to name just three years that heralded major wars.)
Sunday, April 27, 2008
The age after peak oil
There was a noticeable rush at our local petrol station yesterday. This is strange really as the Grangemouth oil refinery strike, if it does have an effect will be in Scotland and northern England.
It is also strange as petrol is now around £1.10 a litre (perilously close to the long predicted £5 a gallon). Therefore a fill up of the tank feels like a serious investment !
However as the fuel blockade of 2000 shows petrol supply is similar to the banking system. There is not enough to supply everyone if they all demand petrol/money at once and if they do the system fails. For this see the fuel blockade of 2000 and Northern Rock's collapse last year.
Therefore a few extra people probably filled up yesterday to be on the safe side. However it doesn't seem to have (yet) developed into a major crisis. While the Grangemouth refinery supplies around half of the UK's fuel, importing from Europe is relatively easy particularly with a bit of notice provided over this strike.
Additionally pictures of queuing motorists outside petrol stations have been noticeably absent from the BBC and other news providers although a few tabloids have shown the photos reminiscent of 2000. There is no real sense of panic so far.
What this episode does do, is serve as a reminder that we really seem to be entering an age of "peak oil" (the theory that oil production will hit a peak after which it will enter a terminal decline). The FT recently carried a story that even Russia may be entering an age of peak oil,
although maybe due to poor infrastructure than oil actually running out just yet.
There is certainly no sign that oil will fall in price to any great extent. One of the differences between many western countries and new economic powers such as China and India is that while trendy westerners may be quite happy to use bikes more, no self-respecting Chinese entrepeneur wants to be seen in anything other than an expensive car. Therefore in the areas of real economic growth demand for oil will only continue to rise on present trends. .
One assumes that this can only push the price higher and then eventually oil may start to run out altogether.
There probably should be a lot more thought given to what happens when the commodity that is supporting 7 billion people in their current lifestyle runs out. Of course some would rightly point out that the world managed without oil production little more than 100 years ago. The only difference was that there were far fewer people and most of those were a lot poorer than the average today.
The end of oil, could be a far bigger issue than terrorism or the arguments over global warming. Without visiting the latter issue in this post, it is fair to say that the planet is probably quite capable of "saving" itself over the long term. Whether humanity could save itself in the age after peak oil remains to be seen.
Below is a rather artistic interpretation of that age from a major car maker. At present I don't think there are grounds to see it would be this simple or this pleasant. The age after peak oil could all get rather messy and difficult, to say the least.
I would be happy to be proved wrong on this but I am starting to be concerned about the age after peak oil.
It is also strange as petrol is now around £1.10 a litre (perilously close to the long predicted £5 a gallon). Therefore a fill up of the tank feels like a serious investment !
However as the fuel blockade of 2000 shows petrol supply is similar to the banking system. There is not enough to supply everyone if they all demand petrol/money at once and if they do the system fails. For this see the fuel blockade of 2000 and Northern Rock's collapse last year.
Therefore a few extra people probably filled up yesterday to be on the safe side. However it doesn't seem to have (yet) developed into a major crisis. While the Grangemouth refinery supplies around half of the UK's fuel, importing from Europe is relatively easy particularly with a bit of notice provided over this strike.
Additionally pictures of queuing motorists outside petrol stations have been noticeably absent from the BBC and other news providers although a few tabloids have shown the photos reminiscent of 2000. There is no real sense of panic so far.
What this episode does do, is serve as a reminder that we really seem to be entering an age of "peak oil" (the theory that oil production will hit a peak after which it will enter a terminal decline). The FT recently carried a story that even Russia may be entering an age of peak oil,
although maybe due to poor infrastructure than oil actually running out just yet.
There is certainly no sign that oil will fall in price to any great extent. One of the differences between many western countries and new economic powers such as China and India is that while trendy westerners may be quite happy to use bikes more, no self-respecting Chinese entrepeneur wants to be seen in anything other than an expensive car. Therefore in the areas of real economic growth demand for oil will only continue to rise on present trends. .
One assumes that this can only push the price higher and then eventually oil may start to run out altogether.
There probably should be a lot more thought given to what happens when the commodity that is supporting 7 billion people in their current lifestyle runs out. Of course some would rightly point out that the world managed without oil production little more than 100 years ago. The only difference was that there were far fewer people and most of those were a lot poorer than the average today.
The end of oil, could be a far bigger issue than terrorism or the arguments over global warming. Without visiting the latter issue in this post, it is fair to say that the planet is probably quite capable of "saving" itself over the long term. Whether humanity could save itself in the age after peak oil remains to be seen.
Below is a rather artistic interpretation of that age from a major car maker. At present I don't think there are grounds to see it would be this simple or this pleasant. The age after peak oil could all get rather messy and difficult, to say the least.
I would be happy to be proved wrong on this but I am starting to be concerned about the age after peak oil.
Monday, February 04, 2008
A slow pipeline
I am no expert on the Oil industry but I note with some frustration that the price of petrol on my local forecourt remains stubbornly over £1 a litre.
This is despite the fact that the crude oil price has largely been falling since very early in January and fell another 3 % today at under $90 a barrel.
I am sure the official argument is that oil refining is a long process and it takes a long time for price falls to filter through the system.
It is strange that that argument never applies in relation to price rises.........
This is despite the fact that the crude oil price has largely been falling since very early in January and fell another 3 % today at under $90 a barrel.
I am sure the official argument is that oil refining is a long process and it takes a long time for price falls to filter through the system.
It is strange that that argument never applies in relation to price rises.........
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