It has been a busy time at work. The VAT changes have caused a big headache due to the very short time available to implement them. I have had no real time to devote to this blog.
However such issues are surely put in perspective when events such as those in Mumbai this evening occur.
As fate would have it one of the senior partners of the firm I work for was visiting Mumbai with two colleagues. They were staying in one of the hotels attacked this evening but good fortune was smiling on them as they checked out this morning and flew to Dehli.
The reality is that terrorism can strike anywhere. It certainly has in London.
I have been meaning to write for sometime about the fact that so many of the terrorist attacks on British soil (whether successful or attempted) have been perpetrated by people "born and bred" in this country. Time has been against me but for now I am just thinking of all those caught up by events in India.
Brits are certainly always a desirable target for terrorists and there are reports this evening of British and American passport holders being looked for by the terrorists.
The style of the attack, using guns in multiple locations, is a new development and shows the dreadful creativity of terrorism to evolve as security evolves.
Whereever we are it seems terrorism is a global scourge.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Monday, November 24, 2008
Chaos
To change the rate of VAT in less than a week is, quite simply going to cause chaos for many businesses accross the country.
Of course, a tax cut should be welcome but the changes announced today do not seem at all well thought out.
Worse still are the dreadful borrowing figures with figures next year set to reach £118 billion.
Of course, a tax cut should be welcome but the changes announced today do not seem at all well thought out.
Worse still are the dreadful borrowing figures with figures next year set to reach £118 billion.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Déjà vu ?
Does this weekend's almost confirmed appointment mean a Clinton will once again be leading the "Free World" ? If nothing else, they appear to be getting closer.
The cartoon below is from the Times (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/) . With apologies to those who feel this blog is rather more transatlantic than its title suggests.........
The cartoon below is from the Times (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/) . With apologies to those who feel this blog is rather more transatlantic than its title suggests.........
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Being Prepared ?
It is perhaps my recent viewing of "Spooks", the lightweight but highly entertaining BBC drama on the British security services that has heightened my imagination when walking about London. Most of the plot in the latest series of Spooks has been around the security services battling to stop various Al Quaeda plots in London.
Like millions of people, my journey to work was interrupted during the last major terrorist attack in London on July 7th, 2005. I count myself fortunate to have been nowhere near any of the four bombs that day. However even nearly 3 and a half years on, I find myself edgy on my thankfully infrequent underground journeys around anyone who looks both to be obviously muslim and carrying significant baggage. Of course it is prejudice but I don't feel it is entirely irrational. For instance, I would be completely at ease sharing a tube carriage with a sikh carrying a large rucksack or indeed a muslim carrying nothing more than the morning paper. My unease is very specific and depends upon at least 2 conditions being met.
On Friday, I took a lunchtime walk out to Bishopsgate in the City. A large group of school children were blocking access to the pedestrian crossing I wanted to use and then an arab looking man, complete with full beard apppeared with a large black "hold-all" bag which he proceeded to rummage in. Despite being out in the open, the fact I was stuck waiting for the school party to clear while a man with the "right" criteria started rummaging in a large bag immediately put me into an episode of "Spooks". The stupidity of the situation was that I was not sufficiently convinced of my fears to:
a) Do anything towards the arab looking man
b) try to move the school group along more quickly or
c) get out of the way myself.
In reality I knew that, despite my fear, this man was unlikely to pose a threat. Nonetheless I was slightly alerted. When the school group cleared, I crossed the road and saw the same arab looking man crossing with me, still fiddling in his bag. I made a beeline into Tescos where I was aiming to go all along and was relieved the man did not come in too.
At the last minute, I saw his rummage rewarded, and he produced a bottle of Lucozade from the bag. My fears, such as they were, being proved misguided. However I doubt I am the only Londoner who thinks like that.
It is stories like this which warn of the potential for a major terrorist incident in the "Obama transition" period that keep the fear levels bubbling away. Three and a bit years ago, before I started this blog London suffered significant terrorism. There is every reason to think that it could happen again sometime. Therefore, tolerant as most Londoners are, I think many people in this city still get a bit nervous when stuck next people that fit their personal mental image of what a terrorist looks like. Spooks isn't helping either !
Like millions of people, my journey to work was interrupted during the last major terrorist attack in London on July 7th, 2005. I count myself fortunate to have been nowhere near any of the four bombs that day. However even nearly 3 and a half years on, I find myself edgy on my thankfully infrequent underground journeys around anyone who looks both to be obviously muslim and carrying significant baggage. Of course it is prejudice but I don't feel it is entirely irrational. For instance, I would be completely at ease sharing a tube carriage with a sikh carrying a large rucksack or indeed a muslim carrying nothing more than the morning paper. My unease is very specific and depends upon at least 2 conditions being met.
On Friday, I took a lunchtime walk out to Bishopsgate in the City. A large group of school children were blocking access to the pedestrian crossing I wanted to use and then an arab looking man, complete with full beard apppeared with a large black "hold-all" bag which he proceeded to rummage in. Despite being out in the open, the fact I was stuck waiting for the school party to clear while a man with the "right" criteria started rummaging in a large bag immediately put me into an episode of "Spooks". The stupidity of the situation was that I was not sufficiently convinced of my fears to:
a) Do anything towards the arab looking man
b) try to move the school group along more quickly or
c) get out of the way myself.
In reality I knew that, despite my fear, this man was unlikely to pose a threat. Nonetheless I was slightly alerted. When the school group cleared, I crossed the road and saw the same arab looking man crossing with me, still fiddling in his bag. I made a beeline into Tescos where I was aiming to go all along and was relieved the man did not come in too.
At the last minute, I saw his rummage rewarded, and he produced a bottle of Lucozade from the bag. My fears, such as they were, being proved misguided. However I doubt I am the only Londoner who thinks like that.
It is stories like this which warn of the potential for a major terrorist incident in the "Obama transition" period that keep the fear levels bubbling away. Three and a bit years ago, before I started this blog London suffered significant terrorism. There is every reason to think that it could happen again sometime. Therefore, tolerant as most Londoners are, I think many people in this city still get a bit nervous when stuck next people that fit their personal mental image of what a terrorist looks like. Spooks isn't helping either !
Suffer the little children
If the media coverage this week could be seen as in any way representative of how children get treated in Britain, it could only be concluded that this is a dreadful country.
At least four separate and unrelated cases stand out within the last week:
1) A mother is on trial for faking the kidnap of and drugging her own daughter which lead to one of the biggest ever police investigations in the country.
2) Two very young boys were killed by their mentally disturbed mother in Manchester.
3) The investigation into abuse at a Jersey children's home continues, albeit with some positive news suggest no murders occured in the "home".
4) Receiving most media coverage and political attention is the dreadful killing of "baby P" a 17 month old baby tortured and killed at the hands of his mother, her "boyfriend" and a lodger at their home in Haringey, North London. Tabloid coverage seems to consist of a competion to describe ever more depraved aspects of the people involved.
It is difficult to understand if these cases are symptomatic of some wider malaise in society (one common thread is that all the children involved did not have their natural father featuring actively in their lives) or if they are just uniquely awful cases that happen to reported around the same time.
The failure of the authorities to prevent the baby's death has rightly received much attention but one cannot overlook the responsibility of those directly involved in the baby's death. Due to the destruction of evidence and the difficulties of proving who in the house ultimately killed the baby, all three have been found guildty of "causing the death" of the baby rather than murder. It is a legal technicality but in reality means a much lighter sentence.
It seems like they have got away with murder. However they must surely face justice for what they have done to an innocent. As the words of Jesus speaking about children are written in the Bible:
"Whoever harms one of these little ones that believes in me, it would be better for him if a millstone were tied around his neck and he were drowned in the depths of the ocean." Matthew 18:6
There is no denying the evil of those who seek to harm children. Our laws and our society would do well to recognise that further than it does at the moment. I do not believe these cases are representative of the country in general but for each case that such horrors do occur in, the country is shamed nonetheless.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7706598.stm
At least four separate and unrelated cases stand out within the last week:
1) A mother is on trial for faking the kidnap of and drugging her own daughter which lead to one of the biggest ever police investigations in the country.
2) Two very young boys were killed by their mentally disturbed mother in Manchester.
3) The investigation into abuse at a Jersey children's home continues, albeit with some positive news suggest no murders occured in the "home".
4) Receiving most media coverage and political attention is the dreadful killing of "baby P" a 17 month old baby tortured and killed at the hands of his mother, her "boyfriend" and a lodger at their home in Haringey, North London. Tabloid coverage seems to consist of a competion to describe ever more depraved aspects of the people involved.
It is difficult to understand if these cases are symptomatic of some wider malaise in society (one common thread is that all the children involved did not have their natural father featuring actively in their lives) or if they are just uniquely awful cases that happen to reported around the same time.
The failure of the authorities to prevent the baby's death has rightly received much attention but one cannot overlook the responsibility of those directly involved in the baby's death. Due to the destruction of evidence and the difficulties of proving who in the house ultimately killed the baby, all three have been found guildty of "causing the death" of the baby rather than murder. It is a legal technicality but in reality means a much lighter sentence.
It seems like they have got away with murder. However they must surely face justice for what they have done to an innocent. As the words of Jesus speaking about children are written in the Bible:
"Whoever harms one of these little ones that believes in me, it would be better for him if a millstone were tied around his neck and he were drowned in the depths of the ocean." Matthew 18:6
There is no denying the evil of those who seek to harm children. Our laws and our society would do well to recognise that further than it does at the moment. I do not believe these cases are representative of the country in general but for each case that such horrors do occur in, the country is shamed nonetheless.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7706598.stm
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Remembrance Sunday
Today is Remembrance Sunday and Tuesday will mark 90 years since the end of the First World War, the war in which Britain suffered its worst ever casualties (significantly worse than the Second World War).
Remarkably there are still a tiny band of surviving veterans from the First World War and I understand three were at the march past at the Cenotaph in London today.
The fields of northern France and Belgium are scattered with British cemeteries and these always make moving places to visit. Some are even visible from the speeding Eurostar train between London and Paris. I once visited the forests around Verdun in France and found the rusting shell of a hand grenade from the First World War. That physical link made the war all seem very real. I wondered if anyone had been killed or injured by the hand grenade that I held in my hand.
In that war the British were also in action in Turkey which was an ally of Germany. The plan was to attack a German ally to the south and end the stalemate to the north in Europe. The British forces together with very significant numbers of Australian and New Zealander forces landed on the end of the Gallipoli penninsular.
The history of the Gallipoli landings is the subject of countless books and a number of films. Put simply, it was a military diaster for the British and their allies. In 9 months of occupation the allies lost over 40,000 men with with 100,000 injured. The never gained significant ground and were eventually forced to withdraw. The military strength of the Turks was a great surprise to the British and their commander Mustafa Kemal (later known as Atatürk) went onto lead his nation a few years later. The British First Lord of the Admirality, one Winston Churchill, ended up being demoted for the disaster. History went on to show that he did also have some strengths !
We visited Gallipoli two years ago and it is beautiful, haunting strip of land overlooking the Dardenelles. Below is a photo we took at Helles Point, the initial site for the allied landings. A British memorial and cemetery can be found there today.
Remarkably there are still a tiny band of surviving veterans from the First World War and I understand three were at the march past at the Cenotaph in London today.
The fields of northern France and Belgium are scattered with British cemeteries and these always make moving places to visit. Some are even visible from the speeding Eurostar train between London and Paris. I once visited the forests around Verdun in France and found the rusting shell of a hand grenade from the First World War. That physical link made the war all seem very real. I wondered if anyone had been killed or injured by the hand grenade that I held in my hand.
In that war the British were also in action in Turkey which was an ally of Germany. The plan was to attack a German ally to the south and end the stalemate to the north in Europe. The British forces together with very significant numbers of Australian and New Zealander forces landed on the end of the Gallipoli penninsular.
The history of the Gallipoli landings is the subject of countless books and a number of films. Put simply, it was a military diaster for the British and their allies. In 9 months of occupation the allies lost over 40,000 men with with 100,000 injured. The never gained significant ground and were eventually forced to withdraw. The military strength of the Turks was a great surprise to the British and their commander Mustafa Kemal (later known as Atatürk) went onto lead his nation a few years later. The British First Lord of the Admirality, one Winston Churchill, ended up being demoted for the disaster. History went on to show that he did also have some strengths !
We visited Gallipoli two years ago and it is beautiful, haunting strip of land overlooking the Dardenelles. Below is a photo we took at Helles Point, the initial site for the allied landings. A British memorial and cemetery can be found there today.
Helles Point Gallipoli, Turkey
For anyone interested in the Gallipoli campaign, a 2005 film based on the letters of soldiers from all sides is strongly recommended. The trailer below gives a flavour although do not be put off by the Hollywood tones. The film is better and more subtle than the trailer suggests. (There are several films with the title Gallipoli but the one I am recommending was made in 2005 and is factually based).
Today with the British and others still fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and the commitment of further forces to the latter being an overlooked aspect of the Obama manifesto (overlooked at least for the most "luvvie" of his supporters. I doubt Oprah , Dimbleby et al will be volunteering for the front line !), it seems sadly certain that we will will have more troops to remember next year.
We remember all those who have died for our freedoms.
The bodies of 5 British soldiers preparing to return home from Afghanistan in June this year having paid the highest price. (photo from Daily Telegraph website)
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Remember, remember
well, it seems to be the eighth of November this year.
All over London it sounds like a war has broken out as fireworks explode everywhere.
As the nearest Saturday to November 5th most people and most official firework displays are taking place today. For anyone reading who is unfamiliar with this festival this is how we remember the failed attempt by Guy Fawkes and his co-conspirators to blow up Parliament in 1605. He was apprehended on November 5th.
We are in essence celebrating the saving of Parliament. I guess that is still something worth celebrating (just about :-)).
The short clip is our own very modest bonfire. Bonfires and one year olds don't really mix. The fireworks exploding all of south London tonight should be audible in the background.
Friday, November 07, 2008
Of Mutts and Living Presidents
This is the great hope of the world (according to the media at least).
Sometimes you just couldn't make it up :-)
Sometimes you just couldn't make it up :-)
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Helping Yourself
I wanted to use a quote from Janet Daley in my last post but I couldn't find somewhere that it fitted well.
Therefore I will post it on its own. I think it is of relevance both to those who feel very fearful at the election of an unknown quantity and also to those with unrealistically high expectations of Obama. We should not expect too much from Obama and if we expect the worst we can still do some things about it. In the end, we may just need to help ourselves.
After all Obama is just a man and just a poltician:
"..........Little wonder that his candidacy is being mistaken for the Second Coming.
What will this mean for the future? What if, as will almost certainly be the case, the great deliverance fails to deliver? The disillusion and sense of betrayal may create divisions in American society that will be greater and deeper than any we have seen for a generation. The sense of hopelessness and bitter disappointment may well be - as Americans say - toxic. Then again, maybe American politics will simply get the grown-up message that no one mortal is the final answer: that the fulfilment of the American dream must always lie within the individual and not with the government. To be fair, Obama himself suggests this when he tells the crowds, "It's not about me - it's about you."
The full article can be found here.
Therefore I will post it on its own. I think it is of relevance both to those who feel very fearful at the election of an unknown quantity and also to those with unrealistically high expectations of Obama. We should not expect too much from Obama and if we expect the worst we can still do some things about it. In the end, we may just need to help ourselves.
After all Obama is just a man and just a poltician:
"..........Little wonder that his candidacy is being mistaken for the Second Coming.
What will this mean for the future? What if, as will almost certainly be the case, the great deliverance fails to deliver? The disillusion and sense of betrayal may create divisions in American society that will be greater and deeper than any we have seen for a generation. The sense of hopelessness and bitter disappointment may well be - as Americans say - toxic. Then again, maybe American politics will simply get the grown-up message that no one mortal is the final answer: that the fulfilment of the American dream must always lie within the individual and not with the government. To be fair, Obama himself suggests this when he tells the crowds, "It's not about me - it's about you."
The full article can be found here.
President Obama
Not superman but for better or worse he is American President
A few final thoughts on the election of Barack Obama, before we start turning to "real life" again:
1) Whatever one thinks of him, he appears to have won a genuine mandate from the majority of American people. This was no "landslide" as some are calling it. At least 52 % to 47 % is not a landslide in my book. You don't have to look far back to find bigger margins in the popular vote. 1996 saw 49 % to 40 % in Clinton against Dole. Nonetheless the margin was sufficient to make all reported cases of local incidents of intimidation and fraud (as I noted yesterday) not relevant to the overall final result.
2) It is a significant milestone to have a black President (in not wishing to totally forget that he happened to have a white mother !). America leads the world in opportunities for its minority groups. A black Democrat president follows on from two black Republican Secretaries of State. This is the culmination of a wider trend. This shows to be a myth the allegation that America is a particularly "racist country". Instead we should reflect that America is unique in having a minority ethnic group leader. It is difficult to see the same happening in other countries with significant minority groups. There is no sign this will happen anytime soon in Brazil, Canada, France, Australia or Britain to name just a few.
3) His biggest obvious strength by a mile is oratory. His other talents are unproven.
4) His policies are vague and tend towards the "redistribution of wealth" rather than the creation of wealth. He has made trade protectionist noises. If these two traits are reflected in the reality of his policy it would be bad news for the American and world economies.
5) His promises to reduce military expenditure are unfortunate in their timing when the world needs a stronger American military more than ever. Which other nation can stand up to oppressors on the continent of Obama's father ?(Congo and Somalia are pressing issues with the latter a base for Islamic militants so presenting security as well as humanitarian concerns). Which other nation can subdue potential threats from Iran,keep the lids on Iraq and Afghanistan and prevent total collapse in Pakistan ? Which other nation can act as a counter weight to a resurgent Russia that today announced it was moving missiles to the Polish border ? Which other country will deter any crazy actions from North Korea under its ailing leader ?
All these issues are threats to people around the world and ultimately to us all. We would do well to think a little more widely before cheering in a leader promising "Change" and not much else.
6) His regime will be strong but not completely unfettered. The Republicans will control over 40 seats in the Senate so may have some chance of delaying or curbing any plans that are too damaging.
7) He has two years to prove himself before America's next major vote in the mid-term elections in 2010.
Finally, he is not the candidate I preferred but this is not the first time I have supported the losing side in an election (I suspect it won't be the last either !). For now he is President Elect of the USA and there is nothing else to do than wish him success and hope he proves his doubters' worst fears wrong. He has two years with an enviably free hand to achieve something great for his country and the world. What he does in that time will prove his real character and motives once and for all.
I hope my worst doubts on Obama are proved wrong
There is a lot of detail still to come but the numbers look like Obama has won.
I am not putting up with Dimblebore on the BBC anymore !
I just hope his powers are not completely unfettered by the Senate.
There will no doubt be a lot of froth in the press tomorrow. Give it two years and I think we will have a more realistic picture.
I am not putting up with Dimblebore on the BBC anymore !
I just hope his powers are not completely unfettered by the Senate.
There will no doubt be a lot of froth in the press tomorrow. Give it two years and I think we will have a more realistic picture.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Night Shift
I am staying up for a while to follow the US results. I have work in the morning but these seem times and events of sufficient importance to warrant a bit of lost sleep.
I am not sure if I can face a smug "Dimblebore" on the BBC so I am following events online for now. It is actually possible to get a wider more balanced picture by switching between various mainstream news providers and other blogs etc.
I will turn in either once the result becomes clear or if it all gets too depressing !
I am not sure if I can face a smug "Dimblebore" on the BBC so I am following events online for now. It is actually possible to get a wider more balanced picture by switching between various mainstream news providers and other blogs etc.
I will turn in either once the result becomes clear or if it all gets too depressing !
Will Rove be proved right ?
The architect of the Bush election victories, Karl Rove is predicting a clear if not landslide Obama win.
I think my views on Obama are fairly clear from previous entries. There are some ludicrously inflated expectations of what his election will bring. That will mean a lot of very disappointed people within a year or so.
Obama's own policies, such as they are, are all about redistribution of wealth by raising taxes. If he sticks to this, it can only be bad news for the US and by extension world economy.
Any reduction in the US military will be a green light to aggressors and tyrants the world over. I certainly don't see any candidates from Europe for the role of world policeman.
All in all, I find the prospect of Obama bad news. A dangerous cocktail of wildly inflated expectations coupled with policies that may weaken the last superpower do not inspire me. I am therefore struggling to understand why so many welcome the election of Obama.
In fact I hope that this time Mr. Rove will be wrong !
I think my views on Obama are fairly clear from previous entries. There are some ludicrously inflated expectations of what his election will bring. That will mean a lot of very disappointed people within a year or so.
Obama's own policies, such as they are, are all about redistribution of wealth by raising taxes. If he sticks to this, it can only be bad news for the US and by extension world economy.
Any reduction in the US military will be a green light to aggressors and tyrants the world over. I certainly don't see any candidates from Europe for the role of world policeman.
All in all, I find the prospect of Obama bad news. A dangerous cocktail of wildly inflated expectations coupled with policies that may weaken the last superpower do not inspire me. I am therefore struggling to understand why so many welcome the election of Obama.
In fact I hope that this time Mr. Rove will be wrong !
Free and Fair Election ?
Maybe not in Philadelphia. A side the BBC and CNN may not show. Here a couple of Black Panthers "stand guard" outside a polling station. They are challenged by a rather brave concerned citizen complete with his camera phone:
Naive and Delusional
If Obama wins tonight, here is one of his many supporters who will experience a dose of reality in the coming months.
She believes that Barack Obama will help her pay for her "gas and mortgage".
How do people manage to get so deluded ?!
She believes that Barack Obama will help her pay for her "gas and mortgage".
How do people manage to get so deluded ?!
Monday, November 03, 2008
Turkeys voting for Christmas ?
That is the simplest analogy I can think of.
America's strength has in the past been based on a low tax, deregulated economy where those who work hard are rewarded while those who don't may struggle.
Obama's policies, such as they are, all seem aimed at rolling back these areas of strength , not to mention weakening the military and in the process giving a freer hand to potential tyrrants the world over. Who else will challenge them ?
If Obama wins tomorrow, I can sincerely say that I hope my worst fears will be proved wrong. There is no pride in being right when predicting disaster.
America needs a socialist-based,redistribution of wealth model like a hole in the head.
Whatever Obama's strengths of oratory and the potential to make history, his lack of experience combined with notions of wealth redistribution make a vote for him like a turkey voting for Christmas.
America's strength has in the past been based on a low tax, deregulated economy where those who work hard are rewarded while those who don't may struggle.
Obama's policies, such as they are, all seem aimed at rolling back these areas of strength , not to mention weakening the military and in the process giving a freer hand to potential tyrrants the world over. Who else will challenge them ?
If Obama wins tomorrow, I can sincerely say that I hope my worst fears will be proved wrong. There is no pride in being right when predicting disaster.
America needs a socialist-based,redistribution of wealth model like a hole in the head.
Whatever Obama's strengths of oratory and the potential to make history, his lack of experience combined with notions of wealth redistribution make a vote for him like a turkey voting for Christmas.
Sunday, November 02, 2008
The Terminator and a glimmer of hope
At the eleventh hour there is a glimmer of hope that America can avoid some of the European diseases like mass ranks of welfare recipients living as clients of an ever growing state. Despite the silver tongued words of Barak Obama, that is in essence what he seems to promise: higher taxes, a scaled down military and a much enlarged welfare state dedicated to "the redistribution of wealth".
While all serious commentators seem to agree on the result of the Presidential election, the polls do seem to be narrowing. Now at the eleventh hour a poll gives John McCain a lead in Ohio. This is signifcant as this state has been won by the winning side in every election since 1960.
If McCain wins Ohio on Tuesday (and if he also wins the presidency as well) I feel that in no small part will he owe something to "the Terminator" or Arnold Schwarzenegger. He gave a good humoured, uplifting speech with clear reasons why Obama will be bad news for America (and by extension the world). There is a chance, albeit far from certain that a corner has been turned. His speech can be seen below:
While all serious commentators seem to agree on the result of the Presidential election, the polls do seem to be narrowing. Now at the eleventh hour a poll gives John McCain a lead in Ohio. This is signifcant as this state has been won by the winning side in every election since 1960.
If McCain wins Ohio on Tuesday (and if he also wins the presidency as well) I feel that in no small part will he owe something to "the Terminator" or Arnold Schwarzenegger. He gave a good humoured, uplifting speech with clear reasons why Obama will be bad news for America (and by extension the world). There is a chance, albeit far from certain that a corner has been turned. His speech can be seen below:
Monday, October 27, 2008
Will President Obama be a disaster or just a disappointment to his own supporters ?
With many commentators now predicting that the election of President Obama, is a foregone conclusion, it is probably worth noting a few points about the man who could effectively be "the most powerful man on the planet" from next week.
Nothing I have read, and I have read fairly widely, gives me a serious idea about what policies he is proposing other than some broad outlines. The broad outlines, I frankly find disturbing especially in the troubled times we live in.
My summary of the broad outlines Obama has revealed are as follows:
1) Raise taxes and increase spending. Hardly inspirational in times like these when the economies of the world are so fragile. The Wall Street Jounal summarised his tax plans like this:
So one possibility is that Obama will be elected on the basis of some vague emotional notion of "change" to introduce redistributive based legislation and taxation at a time of global recession. That seems a recipe for disaster.
The other option is for him to be another Tony Blair and be elected to the cheering screams of his most extreme supporters only to be remarkably unradical and in the process alienate most the people who first supported him. This may also be possible and certainly has its precedent ! It is possible to imagine in that scenario that in 4 years he is viewed as little different from a black CEO of a major corporation and the most ardent critics will be the signifcant number of black voters who supported him but feel nothing has changed for them.
However the option to be most worried about is an increase in taxation and legislation to support redistribution of wealth (as described in his radio interview). At a time of global recession not even the Liberal Democrats are proposing that.
So unless there is a surprise next week I will not be joining the majority view in cheering the result. I will be quietly worried as to what Obama change really means. I will be watching with concerned interest.
Nothing I have read, and I have read fairly widely, gives me a serious idea about what policies he is proposing other than some broad outlines. The broad outlines, I frankly find disturbing especially in the troubled times we live in.
My summary of the broad outlines Obama has revealed are as follows:
1) Raise taxes and increase spending. Hardly inspirational in times like these when the economies of the world are so fragile. The Wall Street Jounal summarised his tax plans like this:
2) Introduce trade protectionism- not a particularly positive plan at a time of world recession.
3) Withdraw US troops from Iraq. On examination this amounts to a little more than a discussion over timing so is hardly a radical proposal, whether right or wrong.
Obama's only clear message is "change" without any definition of what this change really is. Worse still, most of his supporters do not seem to have any clear idea what this change is about except that it must be something good. This is to imagine that change in itself is always good which seems very dangerous. Surely the leaders who have caused the most change were the most revolutionary or brutal. Hitler and Stalin certainly brought about a lot of change.
Obama's most obvious skill is his ability to speak. This seems unarguable to me. By extension this could be seen as an ability to inspire. However without clear plans or with some undesirable broad outlines, this seems no reason to elect him.
Perhaps most telling is a story being reported by today's Telegraph referring to a 2001 radio interview Obama gave when he spoke positively of the need for "redistributive change". That can mean many things but what he seemed to be saying was that it was not enough for the courts to do this but that legislation would be required.
Here are some extracts from the interview:
So one possibility is that Obama will be elected on the basis of some vague emotional notion of "change" to introduce redistributive based legislation and taxation at a time of global recession. That seems a recipe for disaster.
The other option is for him to be another Tony Blair and be elected to the cheering screams of his most extreme supporters only to be remarkably unradical and in the process alienate most the people who first supported him. This may also be possible and certainly has its precedent ! It is possible to imagine in that scenario that in 4 years he is viewed as little different from a black CEO of a major corporation and the most ardent critics will be the signifcant number of black voters who supported him but feel nothing has changed for them.
However the option to be most worried about is an increase in taxation and legislation to support redistribution of wealth (as described in his radio interview). At a time of global recession not even the Liberal Democrats are proposing that.
So unless there is a surprise next week I will not be joining the majority view in cheering the result. I will be quietly worried as to what Obama change really means. I will be watching with concerned interest.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Hard Times ?
I am noticing a trend amongst colleagues, friends and the public in general to be not only talking down the state of the economy and emphasising the hard times in which we are entering but almost relishing the prospect too.
I find the relishing aspect a little short sighted as if the downturn does become really bad we could all be effected far more than we are expecting. However in London and the south of England despite the news, nothing (for most people at least) has really changed just yet.
People who seem to be relishing aspects of the downturn all believe it will actually have a positive effect on them or their outlook. Examples I can think of include:
- a colleague who predicted (or hoped) that harder times would mean the abolition of the Firm's "Diversity" department accompanied by the bundling out into the street of the "Head of Diversity". I am a little nervous about these sort of thoughts myself. While I would also question the value of such departments as "Diversity", to wish someone out of a job seems slightly unethical as well as tempting fate for one's own position.
- at least one person has mentioned the economic downturn as grounds for buying a reduced value of Christmas presents this year. This is irrespective of the fact of them personally being no worse off than last year !
- Another person mentions that the downturn may mothball or stop altogether a planned development of "luxury apartments" or similar on a school playing field. I guess every cloud does have a silver lining in this case.
In some ways a downturn can have positive effects. In a materialistic time and a materialistic city, anything that stops of the conveyor belt of consumption and consumerism (however briefly) and gives cause for thought about the wider purpose of life, may have unexpectedly positive outcomes.
That is not to forget the suffering of those who lose jobs and struggle to support their families. This is bad. It is just that good can also come out of bad sometimes.
At this stage however, I would question how far these really are "hard times".
A walk around our local town centre this weekend suggested we are still a long way from really hard times. Charles Dickens would not be impressed !
For example, while walking around I observed:
1) A nail salon staffed by a team of thai ladies seemed to be doing a roaring trade in synthetic nails.
2) Boots the Chemist, was promoting such essential items as digital picture frames at £54.99.
3) The same shops was selling bucket loads of aftershave and perfume in advance of Christmas.
4) The pavements were clogged with shoppers.
5) Our local Asdas had horrendous queues. I must have waited a good 10 minutes as a long line of trolleys groaning with produce shuffled sullenly to the checkout. The often obese bodies, sometimes complete with visible tatoos, of those pushing the trolleys suggested we are really far from the breadline just yet. Spare cash for tatoos is also not a sign of outright poverty. (Note to self- try and go to Sainsbury's next time. The shoppers are slightly less obese and have slightly fewer tatoos !)
6) The roads are clogged with mainly new cars using our recently reduced price petrol.
True there are a few more Primark bagsvisible as shoppers economise. However let us not pretend that we are really suffering just yet as it is insulting to those in this world who really are.
As for those who relish aspects of downturn, I would caution in being careful what you wish for.
We could really end up in hard times. However from the looks of things this weekend, we are not there yet.
I find the relishing aspect a little short sighted as if the downturn does become really bad we could all be effected far more than we are expecting. However in London and the south of England despite the news, nothing (for most people at least) has really changed just yet.
People who seem to be relishing aspects of the downturn all believe it will actually have a positive effect on them or their outlook. Examples I can think of include:
- a colleague who predicted (or hoped) that harder times would mean the abolition of the Firm's "Diversity" department accompanied by the bundling out into the street of the "Head of Diversity". I am a little nervous about these sort of thoughts myself. While I would also question the value of such departments as "Diversity", to wish someone out of a job seems slightly unethical as well as tempting fate for one's own position.
- at least one person has mentioned the economic downturn as grounds for buying a reduced value of Christmas presents this year. This is irrespective of the fact of them personally being no worse off than last year !
- Another person mentions that the downturn may mothball or stop altogether a planned development of "luxury apartments" or similar on a school playing field. I guess every cloud does have a silver lining in this case.
In some ways a downturn can have positive effects. In a materialistic time and a materialistic city, anything that stops of the conveyor belt of consumption and consumerism (however briefly) and gives cause for thought about the wider purpose of life, may have unexpectedly positive outcomes.
That is not to forget the suffering of those who lose jobs and struggle to support their families. This is bad. It is just that good can also come out of bad sometimes.
At this stage however, I would question how far these really are "hard times".
A walk around our local town centre this weekend suggested we are still a long way from really hard times. Charles Dickens would not be impressed !
For example, while walking around I observed:
1) A nail salon staffed by a team of thai ladies seemed to be doing a roaring trade in synthetic nails.
2) Boots the Chemist, was promoting such essential items as digital picture frames at £54.99.
3) The same shops was selling bucket loads of aftershave and perfume in advance of Christmas.
4) The pavements were clogged with shoppers.
5) Our local Asdas had horrendous queues. I must have waited a good 10 minutes as a long line of trolleys groaning with produce shuffled sullenly to the checkout. The often obese bodies, sometimes complete with visible tatoos, of those pushing the trolleys suggested we are really far from the breadline just yet. Spare cash for tatoos is also not a sign of outright poverty. (Note to self- try and go to Sainsbury's next time. The shoppers are slightly less obese and have slightly fewer tatoos !)
6) The roads are clogged with mainly new cars using our recently reduced price petrol.
True there are a few more Primark bagsvisible as shoppers economise. However let us not pretend that we are really suffering just yet as it is insulting to those in this world who really are.
As for those who relish aspects of downturn, I would caution in being careful what you wish for.
We could really end up in hard times. However from the looks of things this weekend, we are not there yet.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Returning
It has been a busy few weeks since our return from Turkey and I had not planned to post as little as I have done.
However a busy time at work and a PC failure at home have taken their toll on my internet time. Thankfully the PC is sorted, even complete with an upgrade to a wireless router. As the weekend is here, I am posting a couple of photos from Turkey.
These are the ancient ruins of Heraklia on the shores of Lake Bafa. A wording of warning to anyone who ventures this way. The present day settlement at Heraklia is inhabited by some of the most pushy people in Turkey (and that's saying something !!).
On entering the village we were sold "tickets" by two men in what looked like a garden shed. The tickets were for "the site". As the remains are scattered amongst the contemporary settlement, these tickets were essentially to the modern village.
While tickets to the site were reasonable (if dubious in authenticity) it was unclear where to park. While deciding, a reddish haired fat boy emerged who could have easily passed for a German or north European. He turned out to be Turkish but in a high voice and broken English offered a "tour" of the ancient sites. A polite "maybe later" was definitely the wrong thing to say as we were quickly surrounded by a small group of children and a larger group of old women trying to sell linen, beads and even soap. One even tried to exchange Euros with me.
While a bit of enterprise is not to be denigrated, it was really too much as we were followed every step of the way by this group.
I was shown a "Roman Theatre" and then asked for money. With our son in a buggy, the smell of manure everywhere and harrassed by a group of locals at every turn we decided to beat a retreat. A French couple looked similarly fed up and also left. That was a pity as the Greek and Roman history of the site deserved more attention. If the locals were slightly less pushy I am sure they would do more business.
Lake Bafa is spectacular with a ruined monastery on an island in the lake. The rocks around the site make it almost look like another planet. I can recommend it but be careful if you drive into Heraklia !
Below are two photos that in order to take I needed to pay two liras to fob off a group of local children who were bugging me !
The locals in Heraklia were unusually pushy. It is not typical at all. Normally they politely leave you alone when it is clear you are not interested in buying anything.
However a busy time at work and a PC failure at home have taken their toll on my internet time. Thankfully the PC is sorted, even complete with an upgrade to a wireless router. As the weekend is here, I am posting a couple of photos from Turkey.
These are the ancient ruins of Heraklia on the shores of Lake Bafa. A wording of warning to anyone who ventures this way. The present day settlement at Heraklia is inhabited by some of the most pushy people in Turkey (and that's saying something !!).
On entering the village we were sold "tickets" by two men in what looked like a garden shed. The tickets were for "the site". As the remains are scattered amongst the contemporary settlement, these tickets were essentially to the modern village.
While tickets to the site were reasonable (if dubious in authenticity) it was unclear where to park. While deciding, a reddish haired fat boy emerged who could have easily passed for a German or north European. He turned out to be Turkish but in a high voice and broken English offered a "tour" of the ancient sites. A polite "maybe later" was definitely the wrong thing to say as we were quickly surrounded by a small group of children and a larger group of old women trying to sell linen, beads and even soap. One even tried to exchange Euros with me.
While a bit of enterprise is not to be denigrated, it was really too much as we were followed every step of the way by this group.
I was shown a "Roman Theatre" and then asked for money. With our son in a buggy, the smell of manure everywhere and harrassed by a group of locals at every turn we decided to beat a retreat. A French couple looked similarly fed up and also left. That was a pity as the Greek and Roman history of the site deserved more attention. If the locals were slightly less pushy I am sure they would do more business.
Lake Bafa is spectacular with a ruined monastery on an island in the lake. The rocks around the site make it almost look like another planet. I can recommend it but be careful if you drive into Heraklia !
Below are two photos that in order to take I needed to pay two liras to fob off a group of local children who were bugging me !
The locals in Heraklia were unusually pushy. It is not typical at all. Normally they politely leave you alone when it is clear you are not interested in buying anything.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
R
Almost in the blink of an eye, life in the City of London seems transformed.
As little as six weeks ago it seemed a hub of the global free market, bristling with brave hope that all would be well.
Now there is a distinctly gloomy atmosphere and the City the centre of a quasi nationalised economy. The R word (recession) is out of the bag and there is real concern for personal prosperity as well as corporate survival.
All parts of the City seem effected and my own employers are no exception. Turnover is down and this year will be a tough year. I am working (or seem to be) harder than ever hence the lack of recent posts.
Hopefully back with something more cheerful and enlightening soon........
As little as six weeks ago it seemed a hub of the global free market, bristling with brave hope that all would be well.
Now there is a distinctly gloomy atmosphere and the City the centre of a quasi nationalised economy. The R word (recession) is out of the bag and there is real concern for personal prosperity as well as corporate survival.
All parts of the City seem effected and my own employers are no exception. Turnover is down and this year will be a tough year. I am working (or seem to be) harder than ever hence the lack of recent posts.
Hopefully back with something more cheerful and enlightening soon........
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Finance for Industry
A young Gordon Brown looks like a disciple of Michael Foot. Both Gordon Brown and Tony Blair were elected on the Foot Manifesto of 1983. (note the signs of the times- an ashtray was openly on display on the table)
The irony of this week is that 25 years after Foot's annihalation in the 1983 General Election, a key plank of his manifesto (described by Gerald Kauffman as "the longest suicide note in history") has been implemented.
One section of the manifesto included a section called "Finance for industry". This proposed creating a National Investment Bank, controlling the banks much more closely and if necessary nationalising one or more of the existing banks.
The 1983 manifesto was widely seen as a disaster leading to Labour's worst defeat since it became a governing party and Margaret Thatcher's greatest victory. Every Labour action up to and including the Blair Years has been aimed at learning from the mistakes of 1983 and adopting a more business friendly approach. With the arrival of Gordon Brown this clearly reached its limits but few could have thought we would be returning to the Foot Manifesto so soon.
More amazing still is that partial nationalisation of the banks is now on the global agenda. Who would have thought that the Foot manifesto could even be applied in America.
These are clearly difficult times and extraordinary measures are required. However I remain unconvinced that nationalisation of banks is a good move even in desperate times. The £500bn set aside for supporting the banks could be used in so many other ways to stimulate the economy. How about a suspension of corporation tax and income tax for a whole year ? The spending power that would give to ordinary people and businesses would be huge. What's more with Corporation tax bringing in £51 bn and income tax raising £155 bn (2007 figures) , the cost to the nation would be less.
I do not pretend to propose all the answers but if you are going to spend £500 bn on something there are probably a few more options to consider !
There would also seem to be cause for thought before the whole world "turns Foot" as Gordon Brown requested this week.
Below is an extract from the "longest suicide note in history" which is starting to be implemented after 25 years. For the record, Michael Foot is still with us at 95 years of age. He at least must have cause for a smile this week.....
Finance for industry
It is essential that industry has the finance it needs to support our plans for increased investment. Our proposals are set out in full in our Conference statement, The Financial Institutions. We will:
Establish a National Investment Bank to put new resources from private institutions and from the government - including North Sea oil revenues - on a large scale into our industrial priorities. The bank will attract and channel savings, by agreement, in a way that guarantees these savings and improves the quality of investment in the UK.
Exercise, through the Bank of England, much closer direct control over bank lending. Agreed development plans will be concluded with the banks and other financial institutions.
Create a public bank operating through post offices, by merging the National Girobank, National Savings Bank and the Paymaster General's Office.
Set up a Securities Commission to regulate the institutions and markets of the City, including Lloyds, within a clear statutory framework.
Introduce a new Pension Schemes Act to strengthen members' rights in occupational pension schemes, clarify the role of trustees, and give members a right to equal representation, through their trade unions, on controlling bodies of the schemes.
Set up a tripartite investment monitoring agency to advise trustees and encourage improvements in investment practices and strategies.
We expect the major clearing banks to co operate with us fully on these reforms, in the national interest. However, should they fail to do so, we shall stand ready to take one or more of them into public ownership. This will not in any way affect the integrity of customers' deposits.
It is interesting to note that the Foot manifesto also foresaw the arrival of broadband. I can't imagine they foresaw the internet. However all this was to be under "firm public control":
Telecommunications
A national cable system will make possible a wide range of new telecommunications services, greater variety in the provision of television, and a major stimulus to British technology and industry. But it must be under firm public control. A publicly-owned British Telecommunications will thus be given the sole responsibility to create a national, broadband network (including Mercury, the new privately-owned telecommunications system for business), which integrates telecommunications and broadcasting.
The full Labour Party manifesto from 1983 can be found here.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Oil and Petrol
As the oil price continues to fall (today it virtually collapsed below $80 a barrel) the stubbornly high price of petrol seems ever less justifiable.
I know there is a time lag but funny how the time lag is very short when oil rises but very long when oil falls !
Oil is now little more than half the price of its peak (at $147 a barrel). In London at least you are doing well to find petrol that has fallen more than 10 % from its peak (currently around the £1.06/£1.07 a litre mark).
It's interesting to note that earlier this year the potential for $200 a barrel oil was discussed. This all seems quite a way off now.
At least one economic reason to be cheerful....
I know there is a time lag but funny how the time lag is very short when oil rises but very long when oil falls !
Oil is now little more than half the price of its peak (at $147 a barrel). In London at least you are doing well to find petrol that has fallen more than 10 % from its peak (currently around the £1.06/£1.07 a litre mark).
It's interesting to note that earlier this year the potential for $200 a barrel oil was discussed. This all seems quite a way off now.
At least one economic reason to be cheerful....
All form is impermanent
These is the the remains of the Library of Celsus in Ephesus (now part of modern Turkey). Around 100 AD, Ephesus was a major port, a Roman regional capital and with up to 500,000 people then one of the largest cities in the world.
As the sea gradually moved out and after waves of attacks from Barbarians and then Arabs, the city entered a terminal decline. It was finally abandoned altogether by the Turkish population in the 15th Century.
The ruins seen are as the result of restoration work.
It is a wonderful place steeped in history both religious and political.
This abandoned city now thronged with tourists from every continent of the world which we recently visited, is a sombre reminder that history shows no civilisation lasts forever.
While London is someway off collapse and abandonment (!), the same fate of Ephesus may one day touch London.
A global financial centre that until last year seemed ever growing and invincible, now feels slightly rocked by the waves of crisis running accross the globe. I still remain confident that this can be resolved in the way other troubles have (after all the fact we are all here shows life continued after 1929).
However the ruins of Ephesus remind us that even great cities, of which London is one, do not last forever and all physical form is impermanent.
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
The hour before dawn ?
It is stating the obvious to say these are extraordinary times in both in London and across the world.
It is far less obvious whether this current crisis is ending or just beginning.
Yesterday the Royal Bank of Scotland Group lost 40 % of its value. Today at one point it regained much of this while HBOS rose 60 % before falling back later. That banks with stable Scottish heritage should be fluctuating in price like fruit in a wholesale greengrocer underlines the depths of this crisis.
The solution from London at least is to "part nationalise" (in the words of the FT) all the major banks. While that may bring some relief to share holders and those seeking to borrow money it is doubtful that this is a real solution. Not least it represents a suspension of free market principles and as this crisis is now largely about confidence it does little to inspire that. It also increases the tax payer's exposure. While the banks seem more than happy to accept state support it seems more doubtful that they will accept the other aspects of state ownership. The tabloids are already rumbling with calls for cuts to bonuses, control over penalty charges and cuts to mortgage rate. Whether the banks will find the taste of a public bail out so sweet in the long term seems doubtful.
A temporary suspension of taxation would have cost less and would have been better for the real economy than throwing "good money after bad" in the banking system.
Like any crisis the hour before dawn is always the darkest of the night. What is unclear to me today is whether this is a dawn or just a flickering candle lit at enormous expense.
That the city which has one of the oldest stock markets in the world is today "celebrating" a partial nationalisation of its banks suggests the coming of dawn is uncertain. London is where Karl Marx is buried. I hope it does not prove to be the grave of contemporary free market capitalism which despite its many faults has brought prosperity and benefits to so many around the world.
A part of me remains optimistic. Even at its worst this is another 1929. Even 1929 passed and a dawn came. Let us at least hope the dawn to this crisis comes a little quicker than then.
It is far less obvious whether this current crisis is ending or just beginning.
Yesterday the Royal Bank of Scotland Group lost 40 % of its value. Today at one point it regained much of this while HBOS rose 60 % before falling back later. That banks with stable Scottish heritage should be fluctuating in price like fruit in a wholesale greengrocer underlines the depths of this crisis.
The solution from London at least is to "part nationalise" (in the words of the FT) all the major banks. While that may bring some relief to share holders and those seeking to borrow money it is doubtful that this is a real solution. Not least it represents a suspension of free market principles and as this crisis is now largely about confidence it does little to inspire that. It also increases the tax payer's exposure. While the banks seem more than happy to accept state support it seems more doubtful that they will accept the other aspects of state ownership. The tabloids are already rumbling with calls for cuts to bonuses, control over penalty charges and cuts to mortgage rate. Whether the banks will find the taste of a public bail out so sweet in the long term seems doubtful.
A temporary suspension of taxation would have cost less and would have been better for the real economy than throwing "good money after bad" in the banking system.
Like any crisis the hour before dawn is always the darkest of the night. What is unclear to me today is whether this is a dawn or just a flickering candle lit at enormous expense.
That the city which has one of the oldest stock markets in the world is today "celebrating" a partial nationalisation of its banks suggests the coming of dawn is uncertain. London is where Karl Marx is buried. I hope it does not prove to be the grave of contemporary free market capitalism which despite its many faults has brought prosperity and benefits to so many around the world.
A part of me remains optimistic. Even at its worst this is another 1929. Even 1929 passed and a dawn came. Let us at least hope the dawn to this crisis comes a little quicker than then.
Monday, September 29, 2008
In the land of Atatürk
This will be a short post from Turkey where my family and I are spending a fortnight's holiday. An internet cafe and a Turkish keyboard are not condusive to a long note.
However I just wanted to record what a wonderful but contradictory country Turkey can seem to the visitor. Aside from the hassling street traders who shout 'yes please!' at anyone looking remotely like a visitor, the people are extremely warm and welcoming. Travelling with a baby boy seems to bring out the best in people and I have lost count of how many warm words and smiles we have received in the last week.
Turkey is 99 % muslim yet the state is strongly secular, a conflict that persists to this day. Despite being in the middle of Ramadam the cafes and restaurants on the Agean coast where we are staying are still thronged with diners, Turk and foreigner alike.
This does not seem a completely free country. The army is very strong with a visible garrison in most towns and rather bizarrely the BBC and Times websites are both censored in this internet cafe (a website with a picture of Atatürk appears when typing those web addresses). However CNN, the Telegraph and many others are freely available. I fail to understand what is going on here.
Another point is this is a much fought over land. What is now Turkey was once Greek or Roman. I will not attempt to summarise the history but historic sites such as Ephesus and the seven churches of the revelation are all to be found close to the Agean coast.
Overlooking all this is Atatürk who founded the modern state of Turkey in 1923. His portrait, often complete with cigarette, can be found in every cafe, shop or establishment you visit.
Superficially at least, this is first and foremost the land of Atatürk and everything else (whether Islam, commerce, terrorism, tourism,nationalism and a range of unstable neighbours) is less apparent in a host of inconsistencies.
Hopefully back with some photos of this interest country next week.
However I just wanted to record what a wonderful but contradictory country Turkey can seem to the visitor. Aside from the hassling street traders who shout 'yes please!' at anyone looking remotely like a visitor, the people are extremely warm and welcoming. Travelling with a baby boy seems to bring out the best in people and I have lost count of how many warm words and smiles we have received in the last week.
Turkey is 99 % muslim yet the state is strongly secular, a conflict that persists to this day. Despite being in the middle of Ramadam the cafes and restaurants on the Agean coast where we are staying are still thronged with diners, Turk and foreigner alike.
This does not seem a completely free country. The army is very strong with a visible garrison in most towns and rather bizarrely the BBC and Times websites are both censored in this internet cafe (a website with a picture of Atatürk appears when typing those web addresses). However CNN, the Telegraph and many others are freely available. I fail to understand what is going on here.
Another point is this is a much fought over land. What is now Turkey was once Greek or Roman. I will not attempt to summarise the history but historic sites such as Ephesus and the seven churches of the revelation are all to be found close to the Agean coast.
Overlooking all this is Atatürk who founded the modern state of Turkey in 1923. His portrait, often complete with cigarette, can be found in every cafe, shop or establishment you visit.
Superficially at least, this is first and foremost the land of Atatürk and everything else (whether Islam, commerce, terrorism, tourism,nationalism and a range of unstable neighbours) is less apparent in a host of inconsistencies.
Hopefully back with some photos of this interest country next week.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Putting the "Free" back into the Free Market
A hard day in the office for some in London todayAlthough the collapse of Lehman Brothers is clearly a bit of a disaster for all concerned, including the 5,000 or so London-based workers who will probably loose their jobs, I do think this is one of the most sensible things to happen in the financial markets in the last year.
Until today, the emphasis has been on saving and bailing out every institution that failed. There did seem to be a limit to how much longer this could have gone on, regardless of whether it was right to do so or not. In the end there is even a limit to what the government can prop up and it seems that limit may at last be reached. (In this instance the limit has been reached by the US government but hopefully the principle will apply in the UK too).
To me at least, the whole point of a free market economy is that successful businesses flourish and failing businesses close. This may sound incredibly obvious and simple but in recent times this has been overlooked. This may not always be "fair" (especially on the many small cogs who work inside big machines) but it is an effective way of encouraging strong and well managed businesses. To prop up every failing bank seems to go against this philosophy and indirectly punish the more prudent banks who are less effected by this crisis. Why should rash instituions like Northern Rock be supported and carry on getting new business at the expense of banks who never needed state support ? This does not encourage good business in the long term if every bank knows it will be "saved" no matter what rash gambles it makes.
Therefore the failure of Lehman Bros, painful though it is, seems to be a return to reality. An old bank has sadly failed due to its more recent activities. Those who would have sought the services of Lehman Bros will now have to go elsewhere, potentially strengthening other banks. The buy-out of Merrill Lynch is another market solution that does not require taxpayers money.
Banks are now realising that the best way to save themselves is to help each other by putting money into a "lending pool". This seems to be a return to basic principles of banking and the free market and is far healthier in the long term.
The credit "cake" is shrinking at the moment and the weakest banks may struggle to survive. However the only real route to long term health is to let the market "weed out" the weakest whether by buy out or in hopefully only extreme cases bankruptcy.
Hopefully this can be a first step in turning the recent tide of "government support" in every situation from flooded houses built on flood plains, home insulation, failed holiday companies and even failed banks. These are just some of the areas attracting government "support" in the last year. In turn this must be paid for by taxes, which weaken the economy even further.
How ironic that it must fall to the Liberal Democrats to propose tax cuts and signal some end to the continued growth in state spending and the inevitable taxes that follow it.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
New to the job since 1973
I have deliberately been keeping my powder fairly dry on the US elections. Ultimately, despite the importance of the result to the wider world, this is a matter for Americans to decide. Past embarrasments, notably the Guardian readers' campaign to make the voters of Clark County, Ohio vote for John Kerry in 2004, should act as a reminder against "meddling" in overseas elections. (For the record, the Guardian initiative was spectacularly unsuccessful and Clark County along with the rest of Ohio voted for Bush. See this link for some hilarious responses to the letters received from do-gooding Guardian readers !)
Nonetheless we do seem to hear more about the US elections than we sometimes do about our own elections and if nothing else they make a great spectacle and story. For one thing they last so long compared to our own which can be over in about a month since the day they are called.
Below is a short clip of the man "a heartbeat away from the Presidency" on the Democrat side, one Senator Joe Biden. A special connection with British politics is his rare distinction for plagorising a speech by Neil Kinnock. If you have to plagorise, surely it would be a good start to find someone worth plagorising !
Anyway below is Mr. Biden asking a wheelchair bound Senator to stand up. Senator Biden like his role model, Neil Kinnock has a long history of gaffes. He compounds this gaffe by giving the excuse (around 0.30 on the clip) that he is "new to this". New to what ? He's been a Senator since 1973 !!
Nonetheless we do seem to hear more about the US elections than we sometimes do about our own elections and if nothing else they make a great spectacle and story. For one thing they last so long compared to our own which can be over in about a month since the day they are called.
Below is a short clip of the man "a heartbeat away from the Presidency" on the Democrat side, one Senator Joe Biden. A special connection with British politics is his rare distinction for plagorising a speech by Neil Kinnock. If you have to plagorise, surely it would be a good start to find someone worth plagorising !
Anyway below is Mr. Biden asking a wheelchair bound Senator to stand up. Senator Biden like his role model, Neil Kinnock has a long history of gaffes. He compounds this gaffe by giving the excuse (around 0.30 on the clip) that he is "new to this". New to what ? He's been a Senator since 1973 !!
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Seven Years Ago....
I had just started a job working for the Ford Motor Company and was visiting their Motorsport operation deep in the Cumbrian countryside. September 2001 was unusually bleak in Cumbria. It is a beautiful place full of hills and lakes and normally full of farm animals. However in 2001 a deadly outbreak of foot and mouth hit England and millions of animals were slaughtered and disposed of by burning or by burial in pits. All the fields, normally full of sheep and cows, were completely empty.
It was against the backdrop of bleak and eerie beauty of an empty Cumbrian countryside, in a converted country house, working for a giant US Corporation that I first heard of the attack on the twin towers. My colleague who I was working with did not seem to realise the enormity of what was happening but I went out to the car to listen to the news on the radio. Everyone can remember where they were that day and I am no exception.
As well as remembering that day on its seventh anniversary, it must be seen as some success that despite a brutal and determined enemy there has not been one serious terrorist attack on the US in seven years since 9/11. Bombs in Madrid, Bali and London during that time show that the risk remains real.
The images from 9/11 are all too shockingly familiar. Below is a less well known scene from London on September 12th 2001 when the Queen ordered guards outside Buckingham Palace to play the Star Spangled Banner. Many had gathered outside including a lot of Americans stranded in London and unable to return home due to the no fly order being in operation. It is a moving scene, albeit in a short clip.
It was against the backdrop of bleak and eerie beauty of an empty Cumbrian countryside, in a converted country house, working for a giant US Corporation that I first heard of the attack on the twin towers. My colleague who I was working with did not seem to realise the enormity of what was happening but I went out to the car to listen to the news on the radio. Everyone can remember where they were that day and I am no exception.
As well as remembering that day on its seventh anniversary, it must be seen as some success that despite a brutal and determined enemy there has not been one serious terrorist attack on the US in seven years since 9/11. Bombs in Madrid, Bali and London during that time show that the risk remains real.
The images from 9/11 are all too shockingly familiar. Below is a less well known scene from London on September 12th 2001 when the Queen ordered guards outside Buckingham Palace to play the Star Spangled Banner. Many had gathered outside including a lot of Americans stranded in London and unable to return home due to the no fly order being in operation. It is a moving scene, albeit in a short clip.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Oil Falls over 30 %, shame about the petrol
I intend to come back with something more insightful in the near future, but for now time limits me to a moan about petrol prices !
With oil falling below $100 a barrel this week, this represents a near 33 % fall from its peak of $147 in July. Surely for a commodity to fall in price by a third is a massive movement even allowing for the dramatic rise beforehand ?
It is a shame that the petrol stations seem blissfully unaware where the price falls remain mediocre to say the least.
With oil falling below $100 a barrel this week, this represents a near 33 % fall from its peak of $147 in July. Surely for a commodity to fall in price by a third is a massive movement even allowing for the dramatic rise beforehand ?
It is a shame that the petrol stations seem blissfully unaware where the price falls remain mediocre to say the least.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
What is going on in Mexico ?
Unlike conventional wars between nations, the "drugs war" in Mexico seems to have attracted relatively little international coverage. However the level of violence that has caused around 2,700 deaths this year alone is really extraordinary.
Some the tactics adopted by the drugs gangs are beginning to resemble the Iraqi insurgency with such horrors as mass beheadings. In fact the level of kidnapping is apparently now worse than Iraq.
My knowledge of Mexico is very limited although I did once hop accross the border during a visit with a friend to California. This was in 2002 and we took a bus from San Diego to Tijuana. Perhaps as two naive Brits we were blissfully unaware of all that was going on. Tijuana was certainly a bit dubious but during the daylight hours we visited seemed no worse than a number of other places where local traders try to sell their wares to tourists. We were aware there was a seedier side to the place but apart from a few tourist shops and an internet cafe that doubled as a dentist we didn't go in anywhere. Satisfied with a brief but presumably unrepresentative glimpse of Mexico we got the bus back, waiting several hours to cross the US border with security apparently being higher than normal on what was the 6-month anniversary of September 11th, 2001.
I don't know if we were just lucky or if things really have got a lot worse in 6 years.
Here is a side of Tijuana I didn't see on my brief visit.
Recent goings on in Mexico really seem dreadful and ordinary people have to live their lives in the midst of this. Even from a cold-blooded criminal perspective the level of violence seems utterly bewildering and I am struggling to understand what is going on there. Understandably it seems ordinary Mexicans are desperate for this to stop.
Some the tactics adopted by the drugs gangs are beginning to resemble the Iraqi insurgency with such horrors as mass beheadings. In fact the level of kidnapping is apparently now worse than Iraq.
My knowledge of Mexico is very limited although I did once hop accross the border during a visit with a friend to California. This was in 2002 and we took a bus from San Diego to Tijuana. Perhaps as two naive Brits we were blissfully unaware of all that was going on. Tijuana was certainly a bit dubious but during the daylight hours we visited seemed no worse than a number of other places where local traders try to sell their wares to tourists. We were aware there was a seedier side to the place but apart from a few tourist shops and an internet cafe that doubled as a dentist we didn't go in anywhere. Satisfied with a brief but presumably unrepresentative glimpse of Mexico we got the bus back, waiting several hours to cross the US border with security apparently being higher than normal on what was the 6-month anniversary of September 11th, 2001.
I don't know if we were just lucky or if things really have got a lot worse in 6 years.
Here is a side of Tijuana I didn't see on my brief visit.
Recent goings on in Mexico really seem dreadful and ordinary people have to live their lives in the midst of this. Even from a cold-blooded criminal perspective the level of violence seems utterly bewildering and I am struggling to understand what is going on there. Understandably it seems ordinary Mexicans are desperate for this to stop.
South Ossetian views
Here are two youtube videos for readers to judge for themselves.
The first purports to show Georgian troops attacking Tskhinvali before the Russians arrived. The APCs certainly have Georgian markings and the apparent pot shots taken at an unarmed shepherd are disturbing.
The second is a Fox News interview with two Ossetian Americans, a 12-year old girl and her aunt who were in South Ossetia, visiting from San Francisco when the Georgian troops attacked. Some criticism has been aimed at Fox News for "interrupting" this interview with a commercial break. I am not sure if that is too valid. They girl and her Aunt had their say and an articulate South Ossetian perspective is more than many other channels have shown, CNN and BBC to name two.
That doesn't mean I don't think ordinary Georgians have suffered greatly in this and have probably suffered the most over the course of the conflict. The reason I am not specifically showing Georgian suffering here is that it has received far more coverage in the mainstream media. There has been suffering on all sides. This is a very troubled area and the line between Ossetian and Georgian is a bit blurred. I did not know until very recently that Joseph Stalin had an Ossetian Father and a Georgian mother. Clearly this is a troubled and fiery region.
The first purports to show Georgian troops attacking Tskhinvali before the Russians arrived. The APCs certainly have Georgian markings and the apparent pot shots taken at an unarmed shepherd are disturbing.
The second is a Fox News interview with two Ossetian Americans, a 12-year old girl and her aunt who were in South Ossetia, visiting from San Francisco when the Georgian troops attacked. Some criticism has been aimed at Fox News for "interrupting" this interview with a commercial break. I am not sure if that is too valid. They girl and her Aunt had their say and an articulate South Ossetian perspective is more than many other channels have shown, CNN and BBC to name two.
That doesn't mean I don't think ordinary Georgians have suffered greatly in this and have probably suffered the most over the course of the conflict. The reason I am not specifically showing Georgian suffering here is that it has received far more coverage in the mainstream media. There has been suffering on all sides. This is a very troubled area and the line between Ossetian and Georgian is a bit blurred. I did not know until very recently that Joseph Stalin had an Ossetian Father and a Georgian mother. Clearly this is a troubled and fiery region.
Taste of Autumn
It seems a little unfair, after such a poor summer, but there is no denying that there are hints of autumn now appearing.
This morning London was covered in fog. That has now cleared but it promises to be a wet and stormy day. I suppose we shouldn't moan too much as yesterday was quite hot and sunny.
However tomorrow is the start of September and orange and brown leaves can already be seen. There is a slight nip in the air and a smell of autumn all around.
This morning London was covered in fog. That has now cleared but it promises to be a wet and stormy day. I suppose we shouldn't moan too much as yesterday was quite hot and sunny.
However tomorrow is the start of September and orange and brown leaves can already be seen. There is a slight nip in the air and a smell of autumn all around.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Russia: Biting Off more than we can chew (and agreeing when to bite)
The ruins of Tskhinvali after Russia and Georgia fought over this town. The West in general has quite a lot on its plate already before having to bail out President Saakashvili for his rather rash expedition here.
Since the conflict between Russia and Georgia started a few weeks ago, many commentators (both those I genuinely respect and some "others"!) have written or spoken of the potential for a "new cold war" and the need to challenge Russia in it current tendencies.
Before I start to question the overall prevailing wisdom on Russia, I should declare my interests:
1) I have just returned from a week in Moscow where the accounts given on Russian TV and on English speaking but Russian sponsored news outlets give an account of recent events that is almost unrecognisable from the general "BBC/CNN" version of events we have in the west.
2) My wife is Russian by nationality but has Ukrainian parents and a Russian uncle and many Russian friends. Her family and friends demonstrate the reality of what happens when a big country splits into smaller component parts. Real people get stuck on all sides the new borders and calling everyone one side of new border "Russian" and everyone the other side of the side of a new border "Ukrainian" is extremely arbitrary and belies the more complex reality millions of families who are scattered either side of a new border. The same would be true of the UK if it were to split tomorrow. After all, some of the most powerful people who rule over a majority English population are Scottish and Welsh and many English would remain in an independent Scotland. Many other families have both Scottish and English parts.
This introduction is necessary as I realise with that combination of family background I will certainly offend someone reasonably close to me !(in the unlikely event they read this).
Firstly to the recent events themselves. My understanding from reading a variety of different accounts is that Georgia fired the initial artillery rounds and rockets onto the South Ossettian capital, Tskhinvali. To balance that I should also note that South Ossetian separatists, to some extent sponsored by Russia had been provoking the Georgian authorities for a long time. It is also true that the fact that most of South Ossetia has Russian passports is a little more than a goodwill gesture from Russia to a people who identify more closely with Moscow than Tbilisi. Prime Minister Putin is widely known to loathe Georgian President Saakashvili and giving Russian passports to people within the borders of Georgia was probably an effective way of annoying Saakashvili.
That said, my personal conclusion is that Georgia's response to Russian backed provocation was disproportionate. What is shown less frequently on Western TV is that the South Ossetian capital was extremely heavily damaged by Georgian weaponry. Once that happened it was unrealistic to not expect Russian to retaliate.
The brief occupation of large parts of Georgia was about demonstrating power over a much smaller neighbour. At a basic level a large country dominating a small country is not very appealing. Russia also worked on "degrading" Georgia's military by sinking boats, blowing up army bases and carting away weaponry. Again this is not appealing but I would suggest a reality of war. If Russia had walked past an army base without damaging it, it would have been a first in the history of military occupation.
There were however extremely unsavoury and non-standard elements to the Russian backed forces. These were mainly South Ossetian militia who burned down some Georgian villages and allegedly killed some villagers. I say "allegedly" as although I have read accounts from witnesses as far as I know these have not been verified by western media.
The Caucasus themselves are an extremely troubled area. Chechnya is nearby and Russians have suffered at the hands of Chechen terrorists, their own in-house Islamic militants. Bordering South Ossetia, North Ossetia includes the town of Beslan where 300 Russian children died at the hands of terrorists and a bodged rescue mission in 2004. Therefore the Caucasus are not tranquil Surrey and the average Russian could be forgiven for having a jaded view of goings on there.
However I do acknowledge the reality that Russia is trying to extend its influence beyond its internationally recognised borders. In addition to the Georgian breakaway areas, this includes the Crimea (it was rather arbitrarily made part of SSR Ukraine in 1954 having previously been part of Russia), Transdniester in Moldova and potentially the areas with majority Russian populations in the Baltic states, notably Latvia.
These are all likely areas of contention in the coming months and years for two reasons:
1) The majority population in these areas feel more Russian than part of the state they are currently in
2) It suits Russia to destabilise these states and extend its influence.
The two points are intertwined and while the Western media stresses 2), this would not be possible without 1).
So, back to "biting off more than we can chew". While it is laudable to talk of defending small states, it is as someone I don't often quote once said "time to get real".
The reality is Russia cannot be fought out of the areas it currently occupies in the internationally recognised borders of Georgia. While Russia sheds no tears about destabilising Georgia the other reality is there are many people in these areas who welcome Russia. The same would be true in Crimea, Transdniester and part of Latvia.
The same would most certainly not be true in Poland where Russia would be unwelcome by anybody. This brings us to a term much over-used in the Georgia conflict; "red lines". Russia was said to have crossed many red lines in Georgia. These red lines turned out to be rather meaningless as nothing happened when they were crossed, least of all to Russia.
So it is time for the West to agree some "real red lines", lines that Russia knows it cannot cross without provoking a united Western response and not a series of PR related trips by political leaders new (Sarkozy) and aspiring (Cameron).
The reason for this less than idealistic approach is "getting real". It is not "getting real" to demand Russia leaves South Ossetia today. The only real power that could cause that, the US, is more than busy in Iraq and Afghanistan. While we hardly dare to say it too loud, Iraq seems to be getting better but Afghanistan and potentially Pakistan is getting worse. Benazir Bhutto's widower said yesterday the world should acknowledge it is loosing the war on terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This needs addressing and addressing urgently. Pakistan's frontier province faces large number of Al Qaeda foreign fighters including Arabs, Uzbeks and Chechens. Last week 10 French commandos were killed by the Taliban in Afghanistan, a big loss for France and the casualties of all countries in Afghanistan continue to mount.
Last week in Sochi, Russian President Medvedev, isolated by Western criticism, met with Syrian President Assad in Sochi to discuss military cooperation. There are big dangers here of an isolated Russia making new "friends" with countries such as Iran and Syria. While this hardly puts Russia in good light, how much worse it will be for the West to face Islamic extremists, rogue states and a nuclear superpower in an unholy alliance.
This may seem far fetched and it is clear that would be a fragile alliance. However it seems an unnecessary risk from the west choosing to wage war on too many fronts.
My view is that Russia and the West have more in common than divides them. For one, Russia and the West both face Islamic extremism at home and abroad. Chechen militants would be equally happy to set off bombs in Moscow or at US bases in Afghanistan. On my visit to Russia last week, not once was I faced with negative sentiment. I think a visit to some Islamic countries would be rather different. There is no real appetite for a big conflict with the West in Russia. The West needs Russian oil and gas but Russia needs Western revenue in return.
Russians do feel there are some double standards however. Foremost amongst these double standards is Kosovo. Kosovo was historically integral to the Serbian state, an ally of Russia. Despite allocations of attrocities such as organ harvesting and former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton warning of the dangers of Kosovan independence (including Islamic extremism in Europe), the West chose to recognise the independence this year. To now object to the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia seems inconsistent to say the least.
The difficult lesson which many may not agree with is that the borders of the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic do not always make the logical international borders of the Russian Federation. There are two ways of dealing with this:
1) Accept that some "adjustments" will be made in the coming years but only tolerate this in areas where majority Russian populations exist.
2) Strengthen Western military to such an extent that it can both fight the war on Terror and pose a meaningful threat to Russian expansion.
At all costs avoid hollow threats as these both antagonise Russia but do not help its near neighbours. This is the worst of all worlds and is what has happened in the last few weeks.
Finally, accepting that "we are where we are", the West needs to agree meaningful "red lines" over which Russia must not cross without receiving a meaningful military threat. One obvious red line is the Polish border.
Whatever the agreements and disagreements on this, a key point is the need to "get real". In the real world military force can still change realities and such force can come from all sides. The need for a strong military to defend our freedoms and those of our allies is vital. Anyone who feels in the least bit concerned by recent events should be supporting a stronger military than we currently have. While I caution against biting off more than we can chew, it would be useful to have some teeth in the first place. It would also be more than useful that the West agree at what point Russia can expect to be bitten rather than the meaningless barking of recent weeks. My own view is that in the current world order, with plenty of conflicts ongoing, a major exercise to "defend" areas of majority Russian population in Russia's near neighbours is unrealistic and unwise.
The difficult lesson which many may not agree with is that the borders of the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic do not always make the logical international borders of the Russian Federation. There are two ways of dealing with this:
1) Accept that some "adjustments" will be made in the coming years but only tolerate this in areas where majority Russian populations exist.
2) Strengthen Western military to such an extent that it can both fight the war on Terror and pose a meaningful threat to Russian expansion.
At all costs avoid hollow threats as these both antagonise Russia but do not help its near neighbours. This is the worst of all worlds and is what has happened in the last few weeks.
Finally, accepting that "we are where we are", the West needs to agree meaningful "red lines" over which Russia must not cross without receiving a meaningful military threat. One obvious red line is the Polish border.
Whatever the agreements and disagreements on this, a key point is the need to "get real". In the real world military force can still change realities and such force can come from all sides. The need for a strong military to defend our freedoms and those of our allies is vital. Anyone who feels in the least bit concerned by recent events should be supporting a stronger military than we currently have. While I caution against biting off more than we can chew, it would be useful to have some teeth in the first place. It would also be more than useful that the West agree at what point Russia can expect to be bitten rather than the meaningless barking of recent weeks. My own view is that in the current world order, with plenty of conflicts ongoing, a major exercise to "defend" areas of majority Russian population in Russia's near neighbours is unrealistic and unwise.
The sad reality maybe that just as the world needs it more, the US lead by President Obama will turn away from military reality and opt for "smiling diplomacy" and hollow words instead. I suspect Obama has a few supporters in the Russian army.....
The main hope from recent events is more people will be awoken to the reality of the world and the need for adequate armed forces to defend that which we value. If we don't we should not be surprised when someone with such forces takes what we value for themselves. Focusing on adequate defence requirements and concluding the war on terror is probably a great priority than starting an adventure in Caucasus.
Russia can be made to see reason but it will need clear agreement on where the "red lines" are first and a certainty that force is available to defend the red lines in future.
UPDATE 31st August. For those who are interested in this subject, Joanie at Allegiance and Duty Betrayed kindly posted this article on her excellent blog. It received a range of comments and responses that certainly gave me cause for thought and may be of interest to others. It can be seen here.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
In "Imperial Moscow"
I am currently on a work related trip to Moscow. While this is a very topical place to be right now, time precludes putting too many thoughts to paper for the moment. Below are a few "snaps" I took with my mobile phone. Moscow is hot and humid right now so there is no danger of the snow at least one person in London told me to look out for :-)
On a humid August evening in Moscow Russian policemen, of various sizes and shapes, guard access to Red Square waiting for a "VIP" to leave the Kremlin. The domes of St. Basils cathedral dominate the background.
The yellow sun blazes over Red Square, Moscow
Red Square after dark.
On a humid August evening in Moscow Russian policemen, of various sizes and shapes, guard access to Red Square waiting for a "VIP" to leave the Kremlin. The domes of St. Basils cathedral dominate the background.
The yellow sun blazes over Red Square, Moscow
Red Square after dark.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
You have to wonder about the President of Georgia
The man who just last week ordered an artillery and rocket assault on a largely civilian but rebel province of his country has done quite well in terms of global sympathy. Nicolas Sarkozy, Condoleezza Rice and David Cameron (no less!) have all made the pilgramage to Tiblisi this week.
Of course the level of Russian response has been highly questionable and the thuggish elements of South Ossettian militia and Chechen fighters have done no favours for Russia's international image. I still maintain, unless or until someone can prove to me otherwise, that in the face of an artillery assault on their rebelious allies, Russia was obliged to react with force in some way.
I intend to write more fully on this shortly and would welcome contrary views. However so far I am not too impressed by the partiality of the mainstream media.
Below is a short clip that shows the President of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, eating his tie! It is from the BBC in London and not some Russian propoganda agency so it would seem authentic. You have to wonder....
Of course the level of Russian response has been highly questionable and the thuggish elements of South Ossettian militia and Chechen fighters have done no favours for Russia's international image. I still maintain, unless or until someone can prove to me otherwise, that in the face of an artillery assault on their rebelious allies, Russia was obliged to react with force in some way.
I intend to write more fully on this shortly and would welcome contrary views. However so far I am not too impressed by the partiality of the mainstream media.
Below is a short clip that shows the President of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, eating his tie! It is from the BBC in London and not some Russian propoganda agency so it would seem authentic. You have to wonder....
Eclipse Tonight
Depending on if the clouds ever clear it should be possible to see a partial lunar eclipse tonight, in London and much of the world.
I could find disappointingly little on UK websites but it is described here on an Irish website.
Somewhat ominously, in view of recent events in the Caucuses and elsewhere, if the moon is visible it may appear blood red.
I could find disappointingly little on UK websites but it is described here on an Irish website.
Somewhat ominously, in view of recent events in the Caucuses and elsewhere, if the moon is visible it may appear blood red.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Inconsistent and Disproportionate- the oily road to South Ossetia
Whatever the many disagreements it is possible to have about South Ossetia and the conflict between Georgia and Russia, most people would have to agree that it is a sorry mess.
While not being an apologist for the Kremlin, the trigger for this episode seems to have been a Georgian attack on its South Ossetian minority. While this follows years of dispute and months of escalating tension, the Georgian use of artillery and rockets against a civilian town seems to have been disproportionate and rash.
It was disproportionate because civilians rather than Russian soldiers seem to have been the main victims. If the figures of 1,500 to 2,000 South Ossetians being killed are correct, then this was an equivalent of a Russian 9/11. It was rash as in the face of such provocation it seems inconceivable that Russia would not have counter-attacked.
Russia in turn is now portrayed as the attacker. This is inconsistent as when the US and Israel retaliate against those who kill their people, this is not portrayed as attack. Russia's response is in turn seen as disproportionate, at least by the country that gave the world "Shock and Awe".
This inconsistency is unlikely to go unnoticed in Russia. Or rather as Georgian troops return from Iraq, Russia is unlikely to take lectures about not retaliating for attacks.
However even from a Russian perspective the goals of this exercise seem vague. It is possible for them to occupy the whole of Georgia but they seem reluctant to do this. They could reduce Georgia to ruins as "punishment". This is a possibility and becomes more likely as the fighting goes on. It is however difficult to understand what the point in that is.
What is more certain is there is little help Georgia can count on. It took the first step but now seems destined to suffer the consequences. Russia is too strong to be challenged "in its own back yard" by an America engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan and apparently eager to leave the former. Britain is over stretched and in any case too small to make a difference alone. There are no other European forces of note, with the possible exception of France and it seems improbable France would started action in the Caucuses. In summary Russia seems able to do what it likes and everyone who drives cars and heats their homes can fund the Russian attack through the oil and gas they buy.
This is the disturbing reality of the balance of power in the world. It was coming to this but Georgia's rash action just got us there a little quicker along with the recognition of Kosovo as independent and the inconsistent treatments handed out in the Balkans.
The main lesson of this episode is that armed forces will always matter in this world. We may feel cocooned in our city and live a life of work, leisure and shopping. However in the real world freedom is only as certain as the forces who exist to defend it. With Europe's feeble forces and America's tired and overstretched army, the reality is that others can move into the fill the vacuum.
While not being an apologist for the Kremlin, the trigger for this episode seems to have been a Georgian attack on its South Ossetian minority. While this follows years of dispute and months of escalating tension, the Georgian use of artillery and rockets against a civilian town seems to have been disproportionate and rash.
It was disproportionate because civilians rather than Russian soldiers seem to have been the main victims. If the figures of 1,500 to 2,000 South Ossetians being killed are correct, then this was an equivalent of a Russian 9/11. It was rash as in the face of such provocation it seems inconceivable that Russia would not have counter-attacked.
Russia in turn is now portrayed as the attacker. This is inconsistent as when the US and Israel retaliate against those who kill their people, this is not portrayed as attack. Russia's response is in turn seen as disproportionate, at least by the country that gave the world "Shock and Awe".
This inconsistency is unlikely to go unnoticed in Russia. Or rather as Georgian troops return from Iraq, Russia is unlikely to take lectures about not retaliating for attacks.
However even from a Russian perspective the goals of this exercise seem vague. It is possible for them to occupy the whole of Georgia but they seem reluctant to do this. They could reduce Georgia to ruins as "punishment". This is a possibility and becomes more likely as the fighting goes on. It is however difficult to understand what the point in that is.
What is more certain is there is little help Georgia can count on. It took the first step but now seems destined to suffer the consequences. Russia is too strong to be challenged "in its own back yard" by an America engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan and apparently eager to leave the former. Britain is over stretched and in any case too small to make a difference alone. There are no other European forces of note, with the possible exception of France and it seems improbable France would started action in the Caucuses. In summary Russia seems able to do what it likes and everyone who drives cars and heats their homes can fund the Russian attack through the oil and gas they buy.
This is the disturbing reality of the balance of power in the world. It was coming to this but Georgia's rash action just got us there a little quicker along with the recognition of Kosovo as independent and the inconsistent treatments handed out in the Balkans.
The main lesson of this episode is that armed forces will always matter in this world. We may feel cocooned in our city and live a life of work, leisure and shopping. However in the real world freedom is only as certain as the forces who exist to defend it. With Europe's feeble forces and America's tired and overstretched army, the reality is that others can move into the fill the vacuum.
Friday, August 08, 2008
8/8/08 Meanwhile not in China......
Russia and Georgia seem to be at war.
It is not realistic or reasonable to expect a military superpower to let its citizens be killed by an external force as seems to have happened to Russians in South Ossetia, the disputed region of Georgia.
In terms of timing the Chinese see today (8/8/08) as a lucky day. It is potentially lucky for Russia as they have two weeks to do whatever they want in Georgia while the world's media is watching races in Beijing. If Russia releases its might it would seem Georgia doesn't stand a chance. For peace in that region we can only hope that both sides show restraint.
However in reality Russia may want to use this opportunity to prove its strength. The list of complaints from Russia over the last decade is long from the loss of its satellite republics, NATO expansion to its borders and even the recent attempt to shift the loyalities of its Balkan ally Serbia.
The recent developments conceal the underlying currents in that Russia has the force, the wealth and most importantly the oil to dominate more than it has until recently.
It is not realistic or reasonable to expect a military superpower to let its citizens be killed by an external force as seems to have happened to Russians in South Ossetia, the disputed region of Georgia.
In terms of timing the Chinese see today (8/8/08) as a lucky day. It is potentially lucky for Russia as they have two weeks to do whatever they want in Georgia while the world's media is watching races in Beijing. If Russia releases its might it would seem Georgia doesn't stand a chance. For peace in that region we can only hope that both sides show restraint.
However in reality Russia may want to use this opportunity to prove its strength. The list of complaints from Russia over the last decade is long from the loss of its satellite republics, NATO expansion to its borders and even the recent attempt to shift the loyalities of its Balkan ally Serbia.
The recent developments conceal the underlying currents in that Russia has the force, the wealth and most importantly the oil to dominate more than it has until recently.
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
A thoroughly nasty tale of commuting to work in London
How awful this tale was today.
A woman was commuting to work by train and challenged two men for smoking on the station platform. The result was she ended up on the track narrowly missing electrocution and fortunate to escape with just a broken wrist.
It is not at all typical of a normal trip into work but is symptomatic of the everyday aggression and nastiness that seems to build up amongst people commuting into the capital.
One day we may retire to the country !
A woman was commuting to work by train and challenged two men for smoking on the station platform. The result was she ended up on the track narrowly missing electrocution and fortunate to escape with just a broken wrist.
It is not at all typical of a normal trip into work but is symptomatic of the everyday aggression and nastiness that seems to build up amongst people commuting into the capital.
One day we may retire to the country !
Beijing 2008: Bombs, Earthquakes, Typhoons, Smog, Protests and a bit of sport too......
The 2008 Olympics were always destined for controversy.
The location, a capital of a nation with a brutal communist past that has metamorphosed into a capitalist based superpower without apparent need for apologies or political freedom, raises concerns amongst many.
However, something I have become increasingly aware of over the last few months is these concerns are far from universal. Many are happy to let bygones (the deaths of 70 million to name one bygone) be bygones. Firstly the present generation of Chinese are immensely proud of hosting the Games and I guess this is something that is not wrong in itself. Secondly the International Olympic Committee and their allies want the Games to succeed and anything that threatens that are nothing but "inconvenient truths". Thirdly the cocktail of apathy and ignorance that seems to stupefy most of us, most of the time is not to be under-estimated. While some know that "bad things happened in China", some do not and many more do not want to be troubled by such thoughts anyway. Let not the deaths of tens of millions in the last 60 years get in the way of a good sporting event today !
While bushy haired Serbs get carted off to the Hague to face "justice" over a civil war in where horrors were committed by all sides, no Chinese will ever face the same "justice" (however that is defined) for the misdeeds inflicted on the Citizens of the People's Republic of China. China is just too rich, powerful and sensitive to bother with Debating Society notions of human rights abuses, torture and the rest.
So the Olympics are going ahead. Yet the voices of freedom will not be completely silenced. The earth itself seems to be protesting with an earthquake in Sichuan yesterday and typhoons in Hong Kong and Macau today. The smog of Beijing has returned for now until the chemical marvels of cloud seeding kick in again. Today protests reached Beijing. Two crazy but brave Brits and two crazy but brave Americans unfurled a "Free Tibet" banner outside the Birds Nest stadium. A far more nasty and sinister protest is surfacing in the wild west of China with Muslim Turkic brutally murdering 16 policemen.
The Olympics should on balance however "pass off" ok. There are 100,000 soldiers said to be on stand by in Beijing with anti-aircraft weaponry protecting all the key sites. Sometime in the next few weeks some sport will happen too, some medals will be won and some pleasure shared.
Let not all of us, whether watching or not, forget all that has gone before and all that is still to come in this vast and fascinating country of China.
The location, a capital of a nation with a brutal communist past that has metamorphosed into a capitalist based superpower without apparent need for apologies or political freedom, raises concerns amongst many.
However, something I have become increasingly aware of over the last few months is these concerns are far from universal. Many are happy to let bygones (the deaths of 70 million to name one bygone) be bygones. Firstly the present generation of Chinese are immensely proud of hosting the Games and I guess this is something that is not wrong in itself. Secondly the International Olympic Committee and their allies want the Games to succeed and anything that threatens that are nothing but "inconvenient truths". Thirdly the cocktail of apathy and ignorance that seems to stupefy most of us, most of the time is not to be under-estimated. While some know that "bad things happened in China", some do not and many more do not want to be troubled by such thoughts anyway. Let not the deaths of tens of millions in the last 60 years get in the way of a good sporting event today !
While bushy haired Serbs get carted off to the Hague to face "justice" over a civil war in where horrors were committed by all sides, no Chinese will ever face the same "justice" (however that is defined) for the misdeeds inflicted on the Citizens of the People's Republic of China. China is just too rich, powerful and sensitive to bother with Debating Society notions of human rights abuses, torture and the rest.
So the Olympics are going ahead. Yet the voices of freedom will not be completely silenced. The earth itself seems to be protesting with an earthquake in Sichuan yesterday and typhoons in Hong Kong and Macau today. The smog of Beijing has returned for now until the chemical marvels of cloud seeding kick in again. Today protests reached Beijing. Two crazy but brave Brits and two crazy but brave Americans unfurled a "Free Tibet" banner outside the Birds Nest stadium. A far more nasty and sinister protest is surfacing in the wild west of China with Muslim Turkic brutally murdering 16 policemen.
The Olympics should on balance however "pass off" ok. There are 100,000 soldiers said to be on stand by in Beijing with anti-aircraft weaponry protecting all the key sites. Sometime in the next few weeks some sport will happen too, some medals will be won and some pleasure shared.
Let not all of us, whether watching or not, forget all that has gone before and all that is still to come in this vast and fascinating country of China.
Saturday, August 02, 2008
Domestic Gas Prices: Time for a cold shower ?
This week saw the announcement that British Gas is raising its prices an incredible 35 %.
Time for cold showers, I say. I remain a minority voice in my household :-)
A quick search of the web showed this article extolling the benefits of cold showers. As this week has been sometimes hot and almost continually humid, it seems ideal weather to experiment with this. My verdict: they can be particularly refreshing and invigorating. That may however be a different story in November !
However that is my suggestion for the nation to save a massive amount of gas and teach British Gas a lesson at the same time !
Time for cold showers, I say. I remain a minority voice in my household :-)
A quick search of the web showed this article extolling the benefits of cold showers. As this week has been sometimes hot and almost continually humid, it seems ideal weather to experiment with this. My verdict: they can be particularly refreshing and invigorating. That may however be a different story in November !
However that is my suggestion for the nation to save a massive amount of gas and teach British Gas a lesson at the same time !
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Dancing in the Library
Once upon a time libraries were for reading in and nothing more ! Well no more apparently. Aside from all technologies (internet, DVDs, CDs) being catered for, some libraries in London are becoming places of performance and meeting.
Last weekend our local library paid host to a troop of Russian dancers. Here on a slightly lighter note are some photos of dancing in the library.
I am reliably informed that this is not a typical image of modern Russia :-)
Not dancing but waiting...
Dancing
Waiting
Dancing
"Who's that fool (or similar !) taking photos when we are not performing ?" (they might have being saying !!)
Last weekend our local library paid host to a troop of Russian dancers. Here on a slightly lighter note are some photos of dancing in the library.
I am reliably informed that this is not a typical image of modern Russia :-)
Not dancing but waiting...
Dancing
Waiting
Dancing
"Who's that fool (or similar !) taking photos when we are not performing ?" (they might have being saying !!)
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