It is perhaps my recent viewing of "Spooks", the lightweight but highly entertaining BBC drama on the British security services that has heightened my imagination when walking about London. Most of the plot in the latest series of Spooks has been around the security services battling to stop various Al Quaeda plots in London.
Like millions of people, my journey to work was interrupted during the last major terrorist attack in London on July 7th, 2005. I count myself fortunate to have been nowhere near any of the four bombs that day. However even nearly 3 and a half years on, I find myself edgy on my thankfully infrequent underground journeys around anyone who looks both to be obviously muslim and carrying significant baggage. Of course it is prejudice but I don't feel it is entirely irrational. For instance, I would be completely at ease sharing a tube carriage with a sikh carrying a large rucksack or indeed a muslim carrying nothing more than the morning paper. My unease is very specific and depends upon at least 2 conditions being met.
On Friday, I took a lunchtime walk out to Bishopsgate in the City. A large group of school children were blocking access to the pedestrian crossing I wanted to use and then an arab looking man, complete with full beard apppeared with a large black "hold-all" bag which he proceeded to rummage in. Despite being out in the open, the fact I was stuck waiting for the school party to clear while a man with the "right" criteria started rummaging in a large bag immediately put me into an episode of "Spooks". The stupidity of the situation was that I was not sufficiently convinced of my fears to:
a) Do anything towards the arab looking man
b) try to move the school group along more quickly or
c) get out of the way myself.
In reality I knew that, despite my fear, this man was unlikely to pose a threat. Nonetheless I was slightly alerted. When the school group cleared, I crossed the road and saw the same arab looking man crossing with me, still fiddling in his bag. I made a beeline into Tescos where I was aiming to go all along and was relieved the man did not come in too.
At the last minute, I saw his rummage rewarded, and he produced a bottle of Lucozade from the bag. My fears, such as they were, being proved misguided. However I doubt I am the only Londoner who thinks like that.
It is stories like this which warn of the potential for a major terrorist incident in the "Obama transition" period that keep the fear levels bubbling away. Three and a bit years ago, before I started this blog London suffered significant terrorism. There is every reason to think that it could happen again sometime. Therefore, tolerant as most Londoners are, I think many people in this city still get a bit nervous when stuck next people that fit their personal mental image of what a terrorist looks like. Spooks isn't helping either !
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Suffer the little children
If the media coverage this week could be seen as in any way representative of how children get treated in Britain, it could only be concluded that this is a dreadful country.
At least four separate and unrelated cases stand out within the last week:
1) A mother is on trial for faking the kidnap of and drugging her own daughter which lead to one of the biggest ever police investigations in the country.
2) Two very young boys were killed by their mentally disturbed mother in Manchester.
3) The investigation into abuse at a Jersey children's home continues, albeit with some positive news suggest no murders occured in the "home".
4) Receiving most media coverage and political attention is the dreadful killing of "baby P" a 17 month old baby tortured and killed at the hands of his mother, her "boyfriend" and a lodger at their home in Haringey, North London. Tabloid coverage seems to consist of a competion to describe ever more depraved aspects of the people involved.
It is difficult to understand if these cases are symptomatic of some wider malaise in society (one common thread is that all the children involved did not have their natural father featuring actively in their lives) or if they are just uniquely awful cases that happen to reported around the same time.
The failure of the authorities to prevent the baby's death has rightly received much attention but one cannot overlook the responsibility of those directly involved in the baby's death. Due to the destruction of evidence and the difficulties of proving who in the house ultimately killed the baby, all three have been found guildty of "causing the death" of the baby rather than murder. It is a legal technicality but in reality means a much lighter sentence.
It seems like they have got away with murder. However they must surely face justice for what they have done to an innocent. As the words of Jesus speaking about children are written in the Bible:
"Whoever harms one of these little ones that believes in me, it would be better for him if a millstone were tied around his neck and he were drowned in the depths of the ocean." Matthew 18:6
There is no denying the evil of those who seek to harm children. Our laws and our society would do well to recognise that further than it does at the moment. I do not believe these cases are representative of the country in general but for each case that such horrors do occur in, the country is shamed nonetheless.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7706598.stm
At least four separate and unrelated cases stand out within the last week:
1) A mother is on trial for faking the kidnap of and drugging her own daughter which lead to one of the biggest ever police investigations in the country.
2) Two very young boys were killed by their mentally disturbed mother in Manchester.
3) The investigation into abuse at a Jersey children's home continues, albeit with some positive news suggest no murders occured in the "home".
4) Receiving most media coverage and political attention is the dreadful killing of "baby P" a 17 month old baby tortured and killed at the hands of his mother, her "boyfriend" and a lodger at their home in Haringey, North London. Tabloid coverage seems to consist of a competion to describe ever more depraved aspects of the people involved.
It is difficult to understand if these cases are symptomatic of some wider malaise in society (one common thread is that all the children involved did not have their natural father featuring actively in their lives) or if they are just uniquely awful cases that happen to reported around the same time.
The failure of the authorities to prevent the baby's death has rightly received much attention but one cannot overlook the responsibility of those directly involved in the baby's death. Due to the destruction of evidence and the difficulties of proving who in the house ultimately killed the baby, all three have been found guildty of "causing the death" of the baby rather than murder. It is a legal technicality but in reality means a much lighter sentence.
It seems like they have got away with murder. However they must surely face justice for what they have done to an innocent. As the words of Jesus speaking about children are written in the Bible:
"Whoever harms one of these little ones that believes in me, it would be better for him if a millstone were tied around his neck and he were drowned in the depths of the ocean." Matthew 18:6
There is no denying the evil of those who seek to harm children. Our laws and our society would do well to recognise that further than it does at the moment. I do not believe these cases are representative of the country in general but for each case that such horrors do occur in, the country is shamed nonetheless.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7706598.stm
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Remembrance Sunday
Today is Remembrance Sunday and Tuesday will mark 90 years since the end of the First World War, the war in which Britain suffered its worst ever casualties (significantly worse than the Second World War).
Remarkably there are still a tiny band of surviving veterans from the First World War and I understand three were at the march past at the Cenotaph in London today.
The fields of northern France and Belgium are scattered with British cemeteries and these always make moving places to visit. Some are even visible from the speeding Eurostar train between London and Paris. I once visited the forests around Verdun in France and found the rusting shell of a hand grenade from the First World War. That physical link made the war all seem very real. I wondered if anyone had been killed or injured by the hand grenade that I held in my hand.
In that war the British were also in action in Turkey which was an ally of Germany. The plan was to attack a German ally to the south and end the stalemate to the north in Europe. The British forces together with very significant numbers of Australian and New Zealander forces landed on the end of the Gallipoli penninsular.
The history of the Gallipoli landings is the subject of countless books and a number of films. Put simply, it was a military diaster for the British and their allies. In 9 months of occupation the allies lost over 40,000 men with with 100,000 injured. The never gained significant ground and were eventually forced to withdraw. The military strength of the Turks was a great surprise to the British and their commander Mustafa Kemal (later known as Atatürk) went onto lead his nation a few years later. The British First Lord of the Admirality, one Winston Churchill, ended up being demoted for the disaster. History went on to show that he did also have some strengths !
We visited Gallipoli two years ago and it is beautiful, haunting strip of land overlooking the Dardenelles. Below is a photo we took at Helles Point, the initial site for the allied landings. A British memorial and cemetery can be found there today.
Remarkably there are still a tiny band of surviving veterans from the First World War and I understand three were at the march past at the Cenotaph in London today.
The fields of northern France and Belgium are scattered with British cemeteries and these always make moving places to visit. Some are even visible from the speeding Eurostar train between London and Paris. I once visited the forests around Verdun in France and found the rusting shell of a hand grenade from the First World War. That physical link made the war all seem very real. I wondered if anyone had been killed or injured by the hand grenade that I held in my hand.
In that war the British were also in action in Turkey which was an ally of Germany. The plan was to attack a German ally to the south and end the stalemate to the north in Europe. The British forces together with very significant numbers of Australian and New Zealander forces landed on the end of the Gallipoli penninsular.
The history of the Gallipoli landings is the subject of countless books and a number of films. Put simply, it was a military diaster for the British and their allies. In 9 months of occupation the allies lost over 40,000 men with with 100,000 injured. The never gained significant ground and were eventually forced to withdraw. The military strength of the Turks was a great surprise to the British and their commander Mustafa Kemal (later known as Atatürk) went onto lead his nation a few years later. The British First Lord of the Admirality, one Winston Churchill, ended up being demoted for the disaster. History went on to show that he did also have some strengths !
We visited Gallipoli two years ago and it is beautiful, haunting strip of land overlooking the Dardenelles. Below is a photo we took at Helles Point, the initial site for the allied landings. A British memorial and cemetery can be found there today.
Helles Point Gallipoli, Turkey
For anyone interested in the Gallipoli campaign, a 2005 film based on the letters of soldiers from all sides is strongly recommended. The trailer below gives a flavour although do not be put off by the Hollywood tones. The film is better and more subtle than the trailer suggests. (There are several films with the title Gallipoli but the one I am recommending was made in 2005 and is factually based).
Today with the British and others still fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and the commitment of further forces to the latter being an overlooked aspect of the Obama manifesto (overlooked at least for the most "luvvie" of his supporters. I doubt Oprah , Dimbleby et al will be volunteering for the front line !), it seems sadly certain that we will will have more troops to remember next year.
We remember all those who have died for our freedoms.
The bodies of 5 British soldiers preparing to return home from Afghanistan in June this year having paid the highest price. (photo from Daily Telegraph website)
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Remember, remember
well, it seems to be the eighth of November this year.
All over London it sounds like a war has broken out as fireworks explode everywhere.
As the nearest Saturday to November 5th most people and most official firework displays are taking place today. For anyone reading who is unfamiliar with this festival this is how we remember the failed attempt by Guy Fawkes and his co-conspirators to blow up Parliament in 1605. He was apprehended on November 5th.
We are in essence celebrating the saving of Parliament. I guess that is still something worth celebrating (just about :-)).
The short clip is our own very modest bonfire. Bonfires and one year olds don't really mix. The fireworks exploding all of south London tonight should be audible in the background.
Friday, November 07, 2008
Of Mutts and Living Presidents
This is the great hope of the world (according to the media at least).
Sometimes you just couldn't make it up :-)
Sometimes you just couldn't make it up :-)
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Helping Yourself
I wanted to use a quote from Janet Daley in my last post but I couldn't find somewhere that it fitted well.
Therefore I will post it on its own. I think it is of relevance both to those who feel very fearful at the election of an unknown quantity and also to those with unrealistically high expectations of Obama. We should not expect too much from Obama and if we expect the worst we can still do some things about it. In the end, we may just need to help ourselves.
After all Obama is just a man and just a poltician:
"..........Little wonder that his candidacy is being mistaken for the Second Coming.
What will this mean for the future? What if, as will almost certainly be the case, the great deliverance fails to deliver? The disillusion and sense of betrayal may create divisions in American society that will be greater and deeper than any we have seen for a generation. The sense of hopelessness and bitter disappointment may well be - as Americans say - toxic. Then again, maybe American politics will simply get the grown-up message that no one mortal is the final answer: that the fulfilment of the American dream must always lie within the individual and not with the government. To be fair, Obama himself suggests this when he tells the crowds, "It's not about me - it's about you."
The full article can be found here.
Therefore I will post it on its own. I think it is of relevance both to those who feel very fearful at the election of an unknown quantity and also to those with unrealistically high expectations of Obama. We should not expect too much from Obama and if we expect the worst we can still do some things about it. In the end, we may just need to help ourselves.
After all Obama is just a man and just a poltician:
"..........Little wonder that his candidacy is being mistaken for the Second Coming.
What will this mean for the future? What if, as will almost certainly be the case, the great deliverance fails to deliver? The disillusion and sense of betrayal may create divisions in American society that will be greater and deeper than any we have seen for a generation. The sense of hopelessness and bitter disappointment may well be - as Americans say - toxic. Then again, maybe American politics will simply get the grown-up message that no one mortal is the final answer: that the fulfilment of the American dream must always lie within the individual and not with the government. To be fair, Obama himself suggests this when he tells the crowds, "It's not about me - it's about you."
The full article can be found here.
President Obama
Not superman but for better or worse he is American President
A few final thoughts on the election of Barack Obama, before we start turning to "real life" again:
1) Whatever one thinks of him, he appears to have won a genuine mandate from the majority of American people. This was no "landslide" as some are calling it. At least 52 % to 47 % is not a landslide in my book. You don't have to look far back to find bigger margins in the popular vote. 1996 saw 49 % to 40 % in Clinton against Dole. Nonetheless the margin was sufficient to make all reported cases of local incidents of intimidation and fraud (as I noted yesterday) not relevant to the overall final result.
2) It is a significant milestone to have a black President (in not wishing to totally forget that he happened to have a white mother !). America leads the world in opportunities for its minority groups. A black Democrat president follows on from two black Republican Secretaries of State. This is the culmination of a wider trend. This shows to be a myth the allegation that America is a particularly "racist country". Instead we should reflect that America is unique in having a minority ethnic group leader. It is difficult to see the same happening in other countries with significant minority groups. There is no sign this will happen anytime soon in Brazil, Canada, France, Australia or Britain to name just a few.
3) His biggest obvious strength by a mile is oratory. His other talents are unproven.
4) His policies are vague and tend towards the "redistribution of wealth" rather than the creation of wealth. He has made trade protectionist noises. If these two traits are reflected in the reality of his policy it would be bad news for the American and world economies.
5) His promises to reduce military expenditure are unfortunate in their timing when the world needs a stronger American military more than ever. Which other nation can stand up to oppressors on the continent of Obama's father ?(Congo and Somalia are pressing issues with the latter a base for Islamic militants so presenting security as well as humanitarian concerns). Which other nation can subdue potential threats from Iran,keep the lids on Iraq and Afghanistan and prevent total collapse in Pakistan ? Which other nation can act as a counter weight to a resurgent Russia that today announced it was moving missiles to the Polish border ? Which other country will deter any crazy actions from North Korea under its ailing leader ?
All these issues are threats to people around the world and ultimately to us all. We would do well to think a little more widely before cheering in a leader promising "Change" and not much else.
6) His regime will be strong but not completely unfettered. The Republicans will control over 40 seats in the Senate so may have some chance of delaying or curbing any plans that are too damaging.
7) He has two years to prove himself before America's next major vote in the mid-term elections in 2010.
Finally, he is not the candidate I preferred but this is not the first time I have supported the losing side in an election (I suspect it won't be the last either !). For now he is President Elect of the USA and there is nothing else to do than wish him success and hope he proves his doubters' worst fears wrong. He has two years with an enviably free hand to achieve something great for his country and the world. What he does in that time will prove his real character and motives once and for all.
I hope my worst doubts on Obama are proved wrong
There is a lot of detail still to come but the numbers look like Obama has won.
I am not putting up with Dimblebore on the BBC anymore !
I just hope his powers are not completely unfettered by the Senate.
There will no doubt be a lot of froth in the press tomorrow. Give it two years and I think we will have a more realistic picture.
I am not putting up with Dimblebore on the BBC anymore !
I just hope his powers are not completely unfettered by the Senate.
There will no doubt be a lot of froth in the press tomorrow. Give it two years and I think we will have a more realistic picture.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Night Shift
I am staying up for a while to follow the US results. I have work in the morning but these seem times and events of sufficient importance to warrant a bit of lost sleep.
I am not sure if I can face a smug "Dimblebore" on the BBC so I am following events online for now. It is actually possible to get a wider more balanced picture by switching between various mainstream news providers and other blogs etc.
I will turn in either once the result becomes clear or if it all gets too depressing !
I am not sure if I can face a smug "Dimblebore" on the BBC so I am following events online for now. It is actually possible to get a wider more balanced picture by switching between various mainstream news providers and other blogs etc.
I will turn in either once the result becomes clear or if it all gets too depressing !
Will Rove be proved right ?
The architect of the Bush election victories, Karl Rove is predicting a clear if not landslide Obama win.
I think my views on Obama are fairly clear from previous entries. There are some ludicrously inflated expectations of what his election will bring. That will mean a lot of very disappointed people within a year or so.
Obama's own policies, such as they are, are all about redistribution of wealth by raising taxes. If he sticks to this, it can only be bad news for the US and by extension world economy.
Any reduction in the US military will be a green light to aggressors and tyrants the world over. I certainly don't see any candidates from Europe for the role of world policeman.
All in all, I find the prospect of Obama bad news. A dangerous cocktail of wildly inflated expectations coupled with policies that may weaken the last superpower do not inspire me. I am therefore struggling to understand why so many welcome the election of Obama.
In fact I hope that this time Mr. Rove will be wrong !
I think my views on Obama are fairly clear from previous entries. There are some ludicrously inflated expectations of what his election will bring. That will mean a lot of very disappointed people within a year or so.
Obama's own policies, such as they are, are all about redistribution of wealth by raising taxes. If he sticks to this, it can only be bad news for the US and by extension world economy.
Any reduction in the US military will be a green light to aggressors and tyrants the world over. I certainly don't see any candidates from Europe for the role of world policeman.
All in all, I find the prospect of Obama bad news. A dangerous cocktail of wildly inflated expectations coupled with policies that may weaken the last superpower do not inspire me. I am therefore struggling to understand why so many welcome the election of Obama.
In fact I hope that this time Mr. Rove will be wrong !
Free and Fair Election ?
Maybe not in Philadelphia. A side the BBC and CNN may not show. Here a couple of Black Panthers "stand guard" outside a polling station. They are challenged by a rather brave concerned citizen complete with his camera phone:
Naive and Delusional
If Obama wins tonight, here is one of his many supporters who will experience a dose of reality in the coming months.
She believes that Barack Obama will help her pay for her "gas and mortgage".
How do people manage to get so deluded ?!
She believes that Barack Obama will help her pay for her "gas and mortgage".
How do people manage to get so deluded ?!
Monday, November 03, 2008
Turkeys voting for Christmas ?
That is the simplest analogy I can think of.
America's strength has in the past been based on a low tax, deregulated economy where those who work hard are rewarded while those who don't may struggle.
Obama's policies, such as they are, all seem aimed at rolling back these areas of strength , not to mention weakening the military and in the process giving a freer hand to potential tyrrants the world over. Who else will challenge them ?
If Obama wins tomorrow, I can sincerely say that I hope my worst fears will be proved wrong. There is no pride in being right when predicting disaster.
America needs a socialist-based,redistribution of wealth model like a hole in the head.
Whatever Obama's strengths of oratory and the potential to make history, his lack of experience combined with notions of wealth redistribution make a vote for him like a turkey voting for Christmas.
America's strength has in the past been based on a low tax, deregulated economy where those who work hard are rewarded while those who don't may struggle.
Obama's policies, such as they are, all seem aimed at rolling back these areas of strength , not to mention weakening the military and in the process giving a freer hand to potential tyrrants the world over. Who else will challenge them ?
If Obama wins tomorrow, I can sincerely say that I hope my worst fears will be proved wrong. There is no pride in being right when predicting disaster.
America needs a socialist-based,redistribution of wealth model like a hole in the head.
Whatever Obama's strengths of oratory and the potential to make history, his lack of experience combined with notions of wealth redistribution make a vote for him like a turkey voting for Christmas.
Sunday, November 02, 2008
The Terminator and a glimmer of hope
At the eleventh hour there is a glimmer of hope that America can avoid some of the European diseases like mass ranks of welfare recipients living as clients of an ever growing state. Despite the silver tongued words of Barak Obama, that is in essence what he seems to promise: higher taxes, a scaled down military and a much enlarged welfare state dedicated to "the redistribution of wealth".
While all serious commentators seem to agree on the result of the Presidential election, the polls do seem to be narrowing. Now at the eleventh hour a poll gives John McCain a lead in Ohio. This is signifcant as this state has been won by the winning side in every election since 1960.
If McCain wins Ohio on Tuesday (and if he also wins the presidency as well) I feel that in no small part will he owe something to "the Terminator" or Arnold Schwarzenegger. He gave a good humoured, uplifting speech with clear reasons why Obama will be bad news for America (and by extension the world). There is a chance, albeit far from certain that a corner has been turned. His speech can be seen below:
While all serious commentators seem to agree on the result of the Presidential election, the polls do seem to be narrowing. Now at the eleventh hour a poll gives John McCain a lead in Ohio. This is signifcant as this state has been won by the winning side in every election since 1960.
If McCain wins Ohio on Tuesday (and if he also wins the presidency as well) I feel that in no small part will he owe something to "the Terminator" or Arnold Schwarzenegger. He gave a good humoured, uplifting speech with clear reasons why Obama will be bad news for America (and by extension the world). There is a chance, albeit far from certain that a corner has been turned. His speech can be seen below:
Monday, October 27, 2008
Will President Obama be a disaster or just a disappointment to his own supporters ?
With many commentators now predicting that the election of President Obama, is a foregone conclusion, it is probably worth noting a few points about the man who could effectively be "the most powerful man on the planet" from next week.
Nothing I have read, and I have read fairly widely, gives me a serious idea about what policies he is proposing other than some broad outlines. The broad outlines, I frankly find disturbing especially in the troubled times we live in.
My summary of the broad outlines Obama has revealed are as follows:
1) Raise taxes and increase spending. Hardly inspirational in times like these when the economies of the world are so fragile. The Wall Street Jounal summarised his tax plans like this:
So one possibility is that Obama will be elected on the basis of some vague emotional notion of "change" to introduce redistributive based legislation and taxation at a time of global recession. That seems a recipe for disaster.
The other option is for him to be another Tony Blair and be elected to the cheering screams of his most extreme supporters only to be remarkably unradical and in the process alienate most the people who first supported him. This may also be possible and certainly has its precedent ! It is possible to imagine in that scenario that in 4 years he is viewed as little different from a black CEO of a major corporation and the most ardent critics will be the signifcant number of black voters who supported him but feel nothing has changed for them.
However the option to be most worried about is an increase in taxation and legislation to support redistribution of wealth (as described in his radio interview). At a time of global recession not even the Liberal Democrats are proposing that.
So unless there is a surprise next week I will not be joining the majority view in cheering the result. I will be quietly worried as to what Obama change really means. I will be watching with concerned interest.
Nothing I have read, and I have read fairly widely, gives me a serious idea about what policies he is proposing other than some broad outlines. The broad outlines, I frankly find disturbing especially in the troubled times we live in.
My summary of the broad outlines Obama has revealed are as follows:
1) Raise taxes and increase spending. Hardly inspirational in times like these when the economies of the world are so fragile. The Wall Street Jounal summarised his tax plans like this:
2) Introduce trade protectionism- not a particularly positive plan at a time of world recession.
3) Withdraw US troops from Iraq. On examination this amounts to a little more than a discussion over timing so is hardly a radical proposal, whether right or wrong.
Obama's only clear message is "change" without any definition of what this change really is. Worse still, most of his supporters do not seem to have any clear idea what this change is about except that it must be something good. This is to imagine that change in itself is always good which seems very dangerous. Surely the leaders who have caused the most change were the most revolutionary or brutal. Hitler and Stalin certainly brought about a lot of change.
Obama's most obvious skill is his ability to speak. This seems unarguable to me. By extension this could be seen as an ability to inspire. However without clear plans or with some undesirable broad outlines, this seems no reason to elect him.
Perhaps most telling is a story being reported by today's Telegraph referring to a 2001 radio interview Obama gave when he spoke positively of the need for "redistributive change". That can mean many things but what he seemed to be saying was that it was not enough for the courts to do this but that legislation would be required.
Here are some extracts from the interview:
So one possibility is that Obama will be elected on the basis of some vague emotional notion of "change" to introduce redistributive based legislation and taxation at a time of global recession. That seems a recipe for disaster.
The other option is for him to be another Tony Blair and be elected to the cheering screams of his most extreme supporters only to be remarkably unradical and in the process alienate most the people who first supported him. This may also be possible and certainly has its precedent ! It is possible to imagine in that scenario that in 4 years he is viewed as little different from a black CEO of a major corporation and the most ardent critics will be the signifcant number of black voters who supported him but feel nothing has changed for them.
However the option to be most worried about is an increase in taxation and legislation to support redistribution of wealth (as described in his radio interview). At a time of global recession not even the Liberal Democrats are proposing that.
So unless there is a surprise next week I will not be joining the majority view in cheering the result. I will be quietly worried as to what Obama change really means. I will be watching with concerned interest.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Hard Times ?
I am noticing a trend amongst colleagues, friends and the public in general to be not only talking down the state of the economy and emphasising the hard times in which we are entering but almost relishing the prospect too.
I find the relishing aspect a little short sighted as if the downturn does become really bad we could all be effected far more than we are expecting. However in London and the south of England despite the news, nothing (for most people at least) has really changed just yet.
People who seem to be relishing aspects of the downturn all believe it will actually have a positive effect on them or their outlook. Examples I can think of include:
- a colleague who predicted (or hoped) that harder times would mean the abolition of the Firm's "Diversity" department accompanied by the bundling out into the street of the "Head of Diversity". I am a little nervous about these sort of thoughts myself. While I would also question the value of such departments as "Diversity", to wish someone out of a job seems slightly unethical as well as tempting fate for one's own position.
- at least one person has mentioned the economic downturn as grounds for buying a reduced value of Christmas presents this year. This is irrespective of the fact of them personally being no worse off than last year !
- Another person mentions that the downturn may mothball or stop altogether a planned development of "luxury apartments" or similar on a school playing field. I guess every cloud does have a silver lining in this case.
In some ways a downturn can have positive effects. In a materialistic time and a materialistic city, anything that stops of the conveyor belt of consumption and consumerism (however briefly) and gives cause for thought about the wider purpose of life, may have unexpectedly positive outcomes.
That is not to forget the suffering of those who lose jobs and struggle to support their families. This is bad. It is just that good can also come out of bad sometimes.
At this stage however, I would question how far these really are "hard times".
A walk around our local town centre this weekend suggested we are still a long way from really hard times. Charles Dickens would not be impressed !
For example, while walking around I observed:
1) A nail salon staffed by a team of thai ladies seemed to be doing a roaring trade in synthetic nails.
2) Boots the Chemist, was promoting such essential items as digital picture frames at £54.99.
3) The same shops was selling bucket loads of aftershave and perfume in advance of Christmas.
4) The pavements were clogged with shoppers.
5) Our local Asdas had horrendous queues. I must have waited a good 10 minutes as a long line of trolleys groaning with produce shuffled sullenly to the checkout. The often obese bodies, sometimes complete with visible tatoos, of those pushing the trolleys suggested we are really far from the breadline just yet. Spare cash for tatoos is also not a sign of outright poverty. (Note to self- try and go to Sainsbury's next time. The shoppers are slightly less obese and have slightly fewer tatoos !)
6) The roads are clogged with mainly new cars using our recently reduced price petrol.
True there are a few more Primark bagsvisible as shoppers economise. However let us not pretend that we are really suffering just yet as it is insulting to those in this world who really are.
As for those who relish aspects of downturn, I would caution in being careful what you wish for.
We could really end up in hard times. However from the looks of things this weekend, we are not there yet.
I find the relishing aspect a little short sighted as if the downturn does become really bad we could all be effected far more than we are expecting. However in London and the south of England despite the news, nothing (for most people at least) has really changed just yet.
People who seem to be relishing aspects of the downturn all believe it will actually have a positive effect on them or their outlook. Examples I can think of include:
- a colleague who predicted (or hoped) that harder times would mean the abolition of the Firm's "Diversity" department accompanied by the bundling out into the street of the "Head of Diversity". I am a little nervous about these sort of thoughts myself. While I would also question the value of such departments as "Diversity", to wish someone out of a job seems slightly unethical as well as tempting fate for one's own position.
- at least one person has mentioned the economic downturn as grounds for buying a reduced value of Christmas presents this year. This is irrespective of the fact of them personally being no worse off than last year !
- Another person mentions that the downturn may mothball or stop altogether a planned development of "luxury apartments" or similar on a school playing field. I guess every cloud does have a silver lining in this case.
In some ways a downturn can have positive effects. In a materialistic time and a materialistic city, anything that stops of the conveyor belt of consumption and consumerism (however briefly) and gives cause for thought about the wider purpose of life, may have unexpectedly positive outcomes.
That is not to forget the suffering of those who lose jobs and struggle to support their families. This is bad. It is just that good can also come out of bad sometimes.
At this stage however, I would question how far these really are "hard times".
A walk around our local town centre this weekend suggested we are still a long way from really hard times. Charles Dickens would not be impressed !
For example, while walking around I observed:
1) A nail salon staffed by a team of thai ladies seemed to be doing a roaring trade in synthetic nails.
2) Boots the Chemist, was promoting such essential items as digital picture frames at £54.99.
3) The same shops was selling bucket loads of aftershave and perfume in advance of Christmas.
4) The pavements were clogged with shoppers.
5) Our local Asdas had horrendous queues. I must have waited a good 10 minutes as a long line of trolleys groaning with produce shuffled sullenly to the checkout. The often obese bodies, sometimes complete with visible tatoos, of those pushing the trolleys suggested we are really far from the breadline just yet. Spare cash for tatoos is also not a sign of outright poverty. (Note to self- try and go to Sainsbury's next time. The shoppers are slightly less obese and have slightly fewer tatoos !)
6) The roads are clogged with mainly new cars using our recently reduced price petrol.
True there are a few more Primark bagsvisible as shoppers economise. However let us not pretend that we are really suffering just yet as it is insulting to those in this world who really are.
As for those who relish aspects of downturn, I would caution in being careful what you wish for.
We could really end up in hard times. However from the looks of things this weekend, we are not there yet.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Returning
It has been a busy few weeks since our return from Turkey and I had not planned to post as little as I have done.
However a busy time at work and a PC failure at home have taken their toll on my internet time. Thankfully the PC is sorted, even complete with an upgrade to a wireless router. As the weekend is here, I am posting a couple of photos from Turkey.
These are the ancient ruins of Heraklia on the shores of Lake Bafa. A wording of warning to anyone who ventures this way. The present day settlement at Heraklia is inhabited by some of the most pushy people in Turkey (and that's saying something !!).
On entering the village we were sold "tickets" by two men in what looked like a garden shed. The tickets were for "the site". As the remains are scattered amongst the contemporary settlement, these tickets were essentially to the modern village.
While tickets to the site were reasonable (if dubious in authenticity) it was unclear where to park. While deciding, a reddish haired fat boy emerged who could have easily passed for a German or north European. He turned out to be Turkish but in a high voice and broken English offered a "tour" of the ancient sites. A polite "maybe later" was definitely the wrong thing to say as we were quickly surrounded by a small group of children and a larger group of old women trying to sell linen, beads and even soap. One even tried to exchange Euros with me.
While a bit of enterprise is not to be denigrated, it was really too much as we were followed every step of the way by this group.
I was shown a "Roman Theatre" and then asked for money. With our son in a buggy, the smell of manure everywhere and harrassed by a group of locals at every turn we decided to beat a retreat. A French couple looked similarly fed up and also left. That was a pity as the Greek and Roman history of the site deserved more attention. If the locals were slightly less pushy I am sure they would do more business.
Lake Bafa is spectacular with a ruined monastery on an island in the lake. The rocks around the site make it almost look like another planet. I can recommend it but be careful if you drive into Heraklia !
Below are two photos that in order to take I needed to pay two liras to fob off a group of local children who were bugging me !
The locals in Heraklia were unusually pushy. It is not typical at all. Normally they politely leave you alone when it is clear you are not interested in buying anything.
However a busy time at work and a PC failure at home have taken their toll on my internet time. Thankfully the PC is sorted, even complete with an upgrade to a wireless router. As the weekend is here, I am posting a couple of photos from Turkey.
These are the ancient ruins of Heraklia on the shores of Lake Bafa. A wording of warning to anyone who ventures this way. The present day settlement at Heraklia is inhabited by some of the most pushy people in Turkey (and that's saying something !!).
On entering the village we were sold "tickets" by two men in what looked like a garden shed. The tickets were for "the site". As the remains are scattered amongst the contemporary settlement, these tickets were essentially to the modern village.
While tickets to the site were reasonable (if dubious in authenticity) it was unclear where to park. While deciding, a reddish haired fat boy emerged who could have easily passed for a German or north European. He turned out to be Turkish but in a high voice and broken English offered a "tour" of the ancient sites. A polite "maybe later" was definitely the wrong thing to say as we were quickly surrounded by a small group of children and a larger group of old women trying to sell linen, beads and even soap. One even tried to exchange Euros with me.
While a bit of enterprise is not to be denigrated, it was really too much as we were followed every step of the way by this group.
I was shown a "Roman Theatre" and then asked for money. With our son in a buggy, the smell of manure everywhere and harrassed by a group of locals at every turn we decided to beat a retreat. A French couple looked similarly fed up and also left. That was a pity as the Greek and Roman history of the site deserved more attention. If the locals were slightly less pushy I am sure they would do more business.
Lake Bafa is spectacular with a ruined monastery on an island in the lake. The rocks around the site make it almost look like another planet. I can recommend it but be careful if you drive into Heraklia !
Below are two photos that in order to take I needed to pay two liras to fob off a group of local children who were bugging me !
The locals in Heraklia were unusually pushy. It is not typical at all. Normally they politely leave you alone when it is clear you are not interested in buying anything.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
R
Almost in the blink of an eye, life in the City of London seems transformed.
As little as six weeks ago it seemed a hub of the global free market, bristling with brave hope that all would be well.
Now there is a distinctly gloomy atmosphere and the City the centre of a quasi nationalised economy. The R word (recession) is out of the bag and there is real concern for personal prosperity as well as corporate survival.
All parts of the City seem effected and my own employers are no exception. Turnover is down and this year will be a tough year. I am working (or seem to be) harder than ever hence the lack of recent posts.
Hopefully back with something more cheerful and enlightening soon........
As little as six weeks ago it seemed a hub of the global free market, bristling with brave hope that all would be well.
Now there is a distinctly gloomy atmosphere and the City the centre of a quasi nationalised economy. The R word (recession) is out of the bag and there is real concern for personal prosperity as well as corporate survival.
All parts of the City seem effected and my own employers are no exception. Turnover is down and this year will be a tough year. I am working (or seem to be) harder than ever hence the lack of recent posts.
Hopefully back with something more cheerful and enlightening soon........
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Finance for Industry
A young Gordon Brown looks like a disciple of Michael Foot. Both Gordon Brown and Tony Blair were elected on the Foot Manifesto of 1983. (note the signs of the times- an ashtray was openly on display on the table)
The irony of this week is that 25 years after Foot's annihalation in the 1983 General Election, a key plank of his manifesto (described by Gerald Kauffman as "the longest suicide note in history") has been implemented.
One section of the manifesto included a section called "Finance for industry". This proposed creating a National Investment Bank, controlling the banks much more closely and if necessary nationalising one or more of the existing banks.
The 1983 manifesto was widely seen as a disaster leading to Labour's worst defeat since it became a governing party and Margaret Thatcher's greatest victory. Every Labour action up to and including the Blair Years has been aimed at learning from the mistakes of 1983 and adopting a more business friendly approach. With the arrival of Gordon Brown this clearly reached its limits but few could have thought we would be returning to the Foot Manifesto so soon.
More amazing still is that partial nationalisation of the banks is now on the global agenda. Who would have thought that the Foot manifesto could even be applied in America.
These are clearly difficult times and extraordinary measures are required. However I remain unconvinced that nationalisation of banks is a good move even in desperate times. The £500bn set aside for supporting the banks could be used in so many other ways to stimulate the economy. How about a suspension of corporation tax and income tax for a whole year ? The spending power that would give to ordinary people and businesses would be huge. What's more with Corporation tax bringing in £51 bn and income tax raising £155 bn (2007 figures) , the cost to the nation would be less.
I do not pretend to propose all the answers but if you are going to spend £500 bn on something there are probably a few more options to consider !
There would also seem to be cause for thought before the whole world "turns Foot" as Gordon Brown requested this week.
Below is an extract from the "longest suicide note in history" which is starting to be implemented after 25 years. For the record, Michael Foot is still with us at 95 years of age. He at least must have cause for a smile this week.....
Finance for industry
It is essential that industry has the finance it needs to support our plans for increased investment. Our proposals are set out in full in our Conference statement, The Financial Institutions. We will:
Establish a National Investment Bank to put new resources from private institutions and from the government - including North Sea oil revenues - on a large scale into our industrial priorities. The bank will attract and channel savings, by agreement, in a way that guarantees these savings and improves the quality of investment in the UK.
Exercise, through the Bank of England, much closer direct control over bank lending. Agreed development plans will be concluded with the banks and other financial institutions.
Create a public bank operating through post offices, by merging the National Girobank, National Savings Bank and the Paymaster General's Office.
Set up a Securities Commission to regulate the institutions and markets of the City, including Lloyds, within a clear statutory framework.
Introduce a new Pension Schemes Act to strengthen members' rights in occupational pension schemes, clarify the role of trustees, and give members a right to equal representation, through their trade unions, on controlling bodies of the schemes.
Set up a tripartite investment monitoring agency to advise trustees and encourage improvements in investment practices and strategies.
We expect the major clearing banks to co operate with us fully on these reforms, in the national interest. However, should they fail to do so, we shall stand ready to take one or more of them into public ownership. This will not in any way affect the integrity of customers' deposits.
It is interesting to note that the Foot manifesto also foresaw the arrival of broadband. I can't imagine they foresaw the internet. However all this was to be under "firm public control":
Telecommunications
A national cable system will make possible a wide range of new telecommunications services, greater variety in the provision of television, and a major stimulus to British technology and industry. But it must be under firm public control. A publicly-owned British Telecommunications will thus be given the sole responsibility to create a national, broadband network (including Mercury, the new privately-owned telecommunications system for business), which integrates telecommunications and broadcasting.
The full Labour Party manifesto from 1983 can be found here.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Oil and Petrol
As the oil price continues to fall (today it virtually collapsed below $80 a barrel) the stubbornly high price of petrol seems ever less justifiable.
I know there is a time lag but funny how the time lag is very short when oil rises but very long when oil falls !
Oil is now little more than half the price of its peak (at $147 a barrel). In London at least you are doing well to find petrol that has fallen more than 10 % from its peak (currently around the £1.06/£1.07 a litre mark).
It's interesting to note that earlier this year the potential for $200 a barrel oil was discussed. This all seems quite a way off now.
At least one economic reason to be cheerful....
I know there is a time lag but funny how the time lag is very short when oil rises but very long when oil falls !
Oil is now little more than half the price of its peak (at $147 a barrel). In London at least you are doing well to find petrol that has fallen more than 10 % from its peak (currently around the £1.06/£1.07 a litre mark).
It's interesting to note that earlier this year the potential for $200 a barrel oil was discussed. This all seems quite a way off now.
At least one economic reason to be cheerful....
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
