Russia: Biting Off more than we can chew (and agreeing when to bite)

The ruins of Tskhinvali after Russia and Georgia fought over this town. The West in general has quite a lot on its plate already before having to bail out President Saakashvili for his rather rash expedition here.

Since the conflict between Russia and Georgia started a few weeks ago, many commentators (both those I genuinely respect and some "others"!) have written or spoken of the potential for a "new cold war" and the need to challenge Russia in it current tendencies.

Before I start to question the overall prevailing wisdom on Russia, I should declare my interests:

1) I have just returned from a week in Moscow where the accounts given on Russian TV and on English speaking but Russian sponsored news outlets give an account of recent events that is almost unrecognisable from the general "BBC/CNN" version of events we have in the west.

2) My wife is Russian by nationality but has Ukrainian parents and a Russian uncle and many Russian friends. Her family and friends demonstrate the reality of what happens when a big country splits into smaller component parts. Real people get stuck on all sides the new borders and calling everyone one side of new border "Russian" and everyone the other side of the side of a new border "Ukrainian" is extremely arbitrary and belies the more complex reality millions of families who are scattered either side of a new border. The same would be true of the UK if it were to split tomorrow. After all, some of the most powerful people who rule over a majority English population are Scottish and Welsh and many English would remain in an independent Scotland. Many other families have both Scottish and English parts.

This introduction is necessary as I realise with that combination of family background I will certainly offend someone reasonably close to me !(in the unlikely event they read this).

Firstly to the recent events themselves. My understanding from reading a variety of different accounts is that Georgia fired the initial artillery rounds and rockets onto the South Ossettian capital, Tskhinvali. To balance that I should also note that South Ossetian separatists, to some extent sponsored by Russia had been provoking the Georgian authorities for a long time. It is also true that the fact that most of South Ossetia has Russian passports is a little more than a goodwill gesture from Russia to a people who identify more closely with Moscow than Tbilisi. Prime Minister Putin is widely known to loathe Georgian President Saakashvili and giving Russian passports to people within the borders of Georgia was probably an effective way of annoying Saakashvili.

That said, my personal conclusion is that Georgia's response to Russian backed provocation was disproportionate. What is shown less frequently on Western TV is that the South Ossetian capital was extremely heavily damaged by Georgian weaponry. Once that happened it was unrealistic to not expect Russian to retaliate.

The brief occupation of large parts of Georgia was about demonstrating power over a much smaller neighbour. At a basic level a large country dominating a small country is not very appealing. Russia also worked on "degrading" Georgia's military by sinking boats, blowing up army bases and carting away weaponry. Again this is not appealing but I would suggest a reality of war. If Russia had walked past an army base without damaging it, it would have been a first in the history of military occupation.

There were however extremely unsavoury and non-standard elements to the Russian backed forces. These were mainly South Ossetian militia who burned down some Georgian villages and allegedly killed some villagers. I say "allegedly" as although I have read accounts from witnesses as far as I know these have not been verified by western media.

The Caucasus themselves are an extremely troubled area. Chechnya is nearby and Russians have suffered at the hands of Chechen terrorists, their own in-house Islamic militants. Bordering South Ossetia, North Ossetia includes the town of Beslan where 300 Russian children died at the hands of terrorists and a bodged rescue mission in 2004. Therefore the Caucasus are not tranquil Surrey and the average Russian could be forgiven for having a jaded view of goings on there.

However I do acknowledge the reality that Russia is trying to extend its influence beyond its internationally recognised borders. In addition to the Georgian breakaway areas, this includes the Crimea (it was rather arbitrarily made part of SSR Ukraine in 1954 having previously been part of Russia), Transdniester in Moldova and potentially the areas with majority Russian populations in the Baltic states, notably Latvia.

These are all likely areas of contention in the coming months and years for two reasons:

1) The majority population in these areas feel more Russian than part of the state they are currently in
2) It suits Russia to destabilise these states and extend its influence.

The two points are intertwined and while the Western media stresses 2), this would not be possible without 1).

So, back to "biting off more than we can chew". While it is laudable to talk of defending small states, it is as someone I don't often quote once said "time to get real".

The reality is Russia cannot be fought out of the areas it currently occupies in the internationally recognised borders of Georgia. While Russia sheds no tears about destabilising Georgia the other reality is there are many people in these areas who welcome Russia. The same would be true in Crimea, Transdniester and part of Latvia.

The same would most certainly not be true in Poland where Russia would be unwelcome by anybody. This brings us to a term much over-used in the Georgia conflict; "red lines". Russia was said to have crossed many red lines in Georgia. These red lines turned out to be rather meaningless as nothing happened when they were crossed, least of all to Russia.

So it is time for the West to agree some "real red lines", lines that Russia knows it cannot cross without provoking a united Western response and not a series of PR related trips by political leaders new (Sarkozy) and aspiring (Cameron).

The reason for this less than idealistic approach is "getting real". It is not "getting real" to demand Russia leaves South Ossetia today. The only real power that could cause that, the US, is more than busy in Iraq and Afghanistan. While we hardly dare to say it too loud, Iraq seems to be getting better but Afghanistan and potentially Pakistan is getting worse. Benazir Bhutto's widower said yesterday the world should acknowledge it is loosing the war on terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This needs addressing and addressing urgently. Pakistan's frontier province faces large number of Al Qaeda foreign fighters including Arabs, Uzbeks and Chechens. Last week 10 French commandos were killed by the Taliban in Afghanistan, a big loss for France and the casualties of all countries in Afghanistan continue to mount.

Last week in Sochi, Russian President Medvedev, isolated by Western criticism, met with Syrian President Assad in Sochi to discuss military cooperation. There are big dangers here of an isolated Russia making new "friends" with countries such as Iran and Syria. While this hardly puts Russia in good light, how much worse it will be for the West to face Islamic extremists, rogue states and a nuclear superpower in an unholy alliance.

This may seem far fetched and it is clear that would be a fragile alliance. However it seems an unnecessary risk from the west choosing to wage war on too many fronts.

My view is that Russia and the West have more in common than divides them. For one, Russia and the West both face Islamic extremism at home and abroad. Chechen militants would be equally happy to set off bombs in Moscow or at US bases in Afghanistan. On my visit to Russia last week, not once was I faced with negative sentiment. I think a visit to some Islamic countries would be rather different. There is no real appetite for a big conflict with the West in Russia. The West needs Russian oil and gas but Russia needs Western revenue in return.

Russians do feel there are some double standards however. Foremost amongst these double standards is Kosovo. Kosovo was historically integral to the Serbian state, an ally of Russia. Despite allocations of attrocities such as organ harvesting and former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton warning of the dangers of Kosovan independence (including Islamic extremism in Europe), the West chose to recognise the independence this year. To now object to the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia seems inconsistent to say the least.

The difficult lesson which many may not agree with is that the borders of the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic do not always make the logical international borders of the Russian Federation. There are two ways of dealing with this:

1) Accept that some "adjustments" will be made in the coming years but only tolerate this in areas where majority Russian populations exist.
2) Strengthen Western military to such an extent that it can both fight the war on Terror and pose a meaningful threat to Russian expansion.

At all costs avoid hollow threats as these both antagonise Russia but do not help its near neighbours. This is the worst of all worlds and is what has happened in the last few weeks.

Finally, accepting that "we are where we are", the West needs to agree meaningful "red lines" over which Russia must not cross without receiving a meaningful military threat. One obvious red line is the Polish border.

Whatever the agreements and disagreements on this, a key point is the need to "get real". In the real world military force can still change realities and such force can come from all sides. The need for a strong military to defend our freedoms and those of our allies is vital. Anyone who feels in the least bit concerned by recent events should be supporting a stronger military than we currently have. While I caution against biting off more than we can chew, it would be useful to have some teeth in the first place. It would also be more than useful that the West agree at what point Russia can expect to be bitten rather than the meaningless barking of recent weeks. My own view is that in the current world order, with plenty of conflicts ongoing, a major exercise to "defend" areas of majority Russian population in Russia's near neighbours is unrealistic and unwise.

The sad reality maybe that just as the world needs it more, the US lead by President Obama will turn away from military reality and opt for "smiling diplomacy" and hollow words instead. I suspect Obama has a few supporters in the Russian army.....

The main hope from recent events is more people will be awoken to the reality of the world and the need for adequate armed forces to defend that which we value. If we don't we should not be surprised when someone with such forces takes what we value for themselves. Focusing on adequate defence requirements and concluding the war on terror is probably a great priority than starting an adventure in Caucasus.

Russia can be made to see reason but it will need clear agreement on where the "red lines" are first and a certainty that force is available to defend the red lines in future.

UPDATE 31st August. For those who are interested in this subject, Joanie at Allegiance and Duty Betrayed kindly posted this article on her excellent blog. It received a range of comments and responses that certainly gave me cause for thought and may be of interest to others. It can be seen here.

In "Imperial Moscow"

I am currently on a work related trip to Moscow. While this is a very topical place to be right now, time precludes putting too many thoughts to paper for the moment. Below are a few "snaps" I took with my mobile phone. Moscow is hot and humid right now so there is no danger of the snow at least one person in London told me to look out for :-)



On a humid August evening in Moscow Russian policemen, of various sizes and shapes, guard access to Red Square waiting for a "VIP" to leave the Kremlin. The domes of St. Basils cathedral dominate the background.



The yellow sun blazes over Red Square, Moscow



Red Square after dark.

You have to wonder about the President of Georgia

The man who just last week ordered an artillery and rocket assault on a largely civilian but rebel province of his country has done quite well in terms of global sympathy. Nicolas Sarkozy, Condoleezza Rice and David Cameron (no less!) have all made the pilgramage to Tiblisi this week.

Of course the level of Russian response has been highly questionable and the thuggish elements of South Ossettian militia and Chechen fighters have done no favours for Russia's international image. I still maintain, unless or until someone can prove to me otherwise, that in the face of an artillery assault on their rebelious allies, Russia was obliged to react with force in some way.

I intend to write more fully on this shortly and would welcome contrary views. However so far I am not too impressed by the partiality of the mainstream media.

Below is a short clip that shows the President of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, eating his tie! It is from the BBC in London and not some Russian propoganda agency so it would seem authentic. You have to wonder....

Inconsistent and Disproportionate- the oily road to South Ossetia

Whatever the many disagreements it is possible to have about South Ossetia and the conflict between Georgia and Russia, most people would have to agree that it is a sorry mess.

While not being an apologist for the Kremlin, the trigger for this episode seems to have been a Georgian attack on its South Ossetian minority. While this follows years of dispute and months of escalating tension, the Georgian use of artillery and rockets against a civilian town seems to have been disproportionate and rash.

It was disproportionate because civilians rather than Russian soldiers seem to have been the main victims. If the figures of 1,500 to 2,000 South Ossetians being killed are correct, then this was an equivalent of a Russian 9/11. It was rash as in the face of such provocation it seems inconceivable that Russia would not have counter-attacked.

Russia in turn is now portrayed as the attacker. This is inconsistent as when the US and Israel retaliate against those who kill their people, this is not portrayed as attack. Russia's response is in turn seen as disproportionate, at least by the country that gave the world "Shock and Awe".

This inconsistency is unlikely to go unnoticed in Russia. Or rather as Georgian troops return from Iraq, Russia is unlikely to take lectures about not retaliating for attacks.

However even from a Russian perspective the goals of this exercise seem vague. It is possible for them to occupy the whole of Georgia but they seem reluctant to do this. They could reduce Georgia to ruins as "punishment". This is a possibility and becomes more likely as the fighting goes on. It is however difficult to understand what the point in that is.

What is more certain is there is little help Georgia can count on. It took the first step but now seems destined to suffer the consequences. Russia is too strong to be challenged "in its own back yard" by an America engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan and apparently eager to leave the former. Britain is over stretched and in any case too small to make a difference alone. There are no other European forces of note, with the possible exception of France and it seems improbable France would started action in the Caucuses. In summary Russia seems able to do what it likes and everyone who drives cars and heats their homes can fund the Russian attack through the oil and gas they buy.

This is the disturbing reality of the balance of power in the world. It was coming to this but Georgia's rash action just got us there a little quicker along with the recognition of Kosovo as independent and the inconsistent treatments handed out in the Balkans.

The main lesson of this episode is that armed forces will always matter in this world. We may feel cocooned in our city and live a life of work, leisure and shopping. However in the real world freedom is only as certain as the forces who exist to defend it. With Europe's feeble forces and America's tired and overstretched army, the reality is that others can move into the fill the vacuum.

8/8/08 Meanwhile not in China......

Russia and Georgia seem to be at war.

It is not realistic or reasonable to expect a military superpower to let its citizens be killed by an external force as seems to have happened to Russians in South Ossetia, the disputed region of Georgia.

In terms of timing the Chinese see today (8/8/08) as a lucky day. It is potentially lucky for Russia as they have two weeks to do whatever they want in Georgia while the world's media is watching races in Beijing. If Russia releases its might it would seem Georgia doesn't stand a chance. For peace in that region we can only hope that both sides show restraint.

However in reality Russia may want to use this opportunity to prove its strength. The list of complaints from Russia over the last decade is long from the loss of its satellite republics, NATO expansion to its borders and even the recent attempt to shift the loyalities of its Balkan ally Serbia.

The recent developments conceal the underlying currents in that Russia has the force, the wealth and most importantly the oil to dominate more than it has until recently.

A far away cyberspace of which we know little

Unnoticed by most people and apparently most governments too, an EU member state and NATO country has been invaded in recent weeks- at least in cyberpace.

The country in question is Estonia and the "invader" is Russia. Estonia foolishly/bravely/insensitively/arrogantly (delete according to political or national standpoint) chose to move a large bronze war memorial to fallen Soviet soldiers who liberated Estonia from the Germans. That the Soviets then proceeded to occupy Estonia and make it a Soviet republic for 40 years is another matter and the cause of why feelings are so divided in Estonia.

The Soviet legacy, amongst other things, is the fact that a third of Estonia's small 1.4 million population are ethnic Russians. Many rioted when the memorial was moved resulting in hundreds of arrests and one death. At the same time a concerted cyber attack was launched on Estonian press, government ministries, banks and investment companies. Some of the cyber attackers have been traced to Kremlin registered IP addresses.

As a booming Baltic economy with a highly internet connected society, it is particularly vulnerable to such attacks. In the internet age you don't need jets to cause bomb damage an economy- if you shut down key internet sites for a few days or weeks, revenue is lost and confidence is damaged for investors resulting in a not disimilar effect to conventional attacks.

Of course there are crucial differences. No one is killed in such attacks, at least not yet. Although as systems become yet more computer dependent that cannot be beyond the realms of possibilty if enough transport/health/power related systems are crashed.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article1802959.ece

I am no fan of Estonia. Moving a war memorial seems insensitive at the best of times. I have walked round beautifully maintained cemetries of invading Brits in Turkey. If Attaturk could respect fallen enemies then surely a modern European democracy can respect the memory of those who died defeating Nazi invaders.

Of course it is impossible to put yourself in Estonian shoes and appreciate the full meaning of their history.

Yet one thing is clear, Russia is awakened and is testing the water. NATO and the EU have no agreed sanctions for cyber attacks on a large scale. Tanks are unlikely to follow just yet but with the US otherwise occupied, the UK overstretched and the European armies at their generally feeble levels of strength, there is arguably not much stopping Russia marching into "its own backyard". Will Estonia become another "far away country of which way know little"*. Estonian cyberspace already has that status.

* The words of Neville Chamberlain to describe Czechoslovakia when Germany invaded in 1938

Russia: A "Lord of the Flies" interpretation of Capitalist Democracy

Amongst the green fields of Gloucestershire, near to the Stroud Valley nestles a school where I spent a couple of years around the age of 13. Part of that time I spent as a relatively unhappy boarder dreading the daily rugby matches and counting down the days to the next holiday. However in those rural days, I learnt quite a lot and one of the memories that is strongest is of reading the novel "Lord of the Flies" by William Golding.

I seem to remember that our school copies had white covers with a sketched drawing of a pig's head skewered on a stick. I found this faintly horrific and the story in the book while enthralling was also unsettling due to the familiarity of the characters and the brutality they descended to.

While I have not read the book since I was the thirteen,I remember the basic story is about a group of school boys whose plane is shot down in the war and they crash land on a deserted island. The pilot, crew and teachers are all killed in the crash leaving the surviving boys to fend for themselves. In a way, it is like a WWII child version of "Lost".

The principal characters are the older boys who are all around twelve. When the boys realise their situation they agree to band together under the leadership of Ralph, one of the older boys who has many positive qualities. Another boy, Jack who was in the school choir takes his fellow choir boys to lead hunting expeditions.

Gradually splits develop in the groups. Jack's hunters form their own rituals and Ralph and Jack argue about the direction of the group. A fat asthmatic boy, Piggy, tries to act as a peacemaker in the group. Another boy, Simon, is the most positive and caring of the group and encourages the others never to give up hope of being rescued. Gradually barbarity emerges within the group and Simon is killed in a ritual savage dance. Eventually Piggy, the peacemaker and most intellectual boy, is himself killed by a bolder to the head.

The story ends when, after many months, rescue comes to the boys on the island. It is not clear what happens after that but the assumption is that the boys return to relative normality. The savagery and brutality of some is presumably once again suppressed. The book's key theme is that without the influence of society, order and democracy everyone has the potential to descend to savagery.

I found the book both enthralling and quite believable. I was reading about boys not dissimilar in their characteristics and variety to those at my own school.

When the heart of Alexander Litvinenko stopped beating in a London hospital last evening (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13509-2469917,00.html) http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13509-2469176,00.html, another Russian Simon was killed by the savagery that has marked that country's experiment with freedom, capitalism and democracy.

The cause of his death is unclear. Doctors no longer say he was poisoned by Thallium and the Kremlin looks unlikely to have directly sponsored the death of a relatively small time dissident. More probable is the involvement of some rogue element in the security services or an underworld associate.

Whatever the cause, it seems certain to be foul play and marks the end of an unpleasant and tortured three week struggle for life by one man's body.

My observation of Russia has been at two levels. Firstly as distant observer through the media, as one who was caught up in the general enthusiasm following the fall of the Berlin wall and the collapse of Soviet communism. At that level, this seemed a most positive development to spread freedom to other parts of Europe and reduce the risk of conflict to the rest of the world.

Then more recently my observation of Russia has been at a more personal level. My wife comes from Russia and although I met her when already established in London, I have had several visits and a chance to understand a little more about Russia and its people. While the Russian people (and their famous soul) are generally very warm, welcoming and caring, it is clear that the Russian nation has not moved from communist society to capitalist democracy as successfully and painlessly as some of its smaller satellites.

To my foreign eyes there have been three distinct phases in Russian post-soviet history:

1) Freedom: The Party- for the great majority this was a positive time when freedom was to be celebrated. The past was another country and there was suddenly a myriad of opportunities to be taken and experienced. Small businesses could be started, travel was open and available and there was a sense of hope.

2) Capitalism: The Looting. In this phase a few entrepreneurs became very rich while the great majority of people stayed where they were or in many cases went down.
State Enterprises were sold off for knock-down prices. The strong, clever and scheming picked up vast wealth for very little work. Billions of dollars were made in a short space of time. As the most extreme Las Vegas form of capitalism became established, real estate pirates used thugs to force innocent people from their family communal apartments and millions were made in dubious property deals.
Disillusionment at new system grew amongst the masses. The pirates flaunted their wealth in vulgar opulence normally limited to Essex millionaires or Las Vegas casinos. It is probably no accident that there are so many casinos in the new Russia.

3) Democracy: The Illusion. A jovial alcoholic leader was replaced by a sober tough guy who appealed to the masses telling them what they wanted to hear about those who had won (or stolen) the billions in state assets or property.
However some of the pirates aligned themselves to freedom, meaning that the tough guy had to attack freedom in order to get the pirates.

Right now freedom is suffering for certain. The party is but a distant memory. There is a struggle between wealthy pirates and the powerful tough guys. The reason for the start of the struggle is largely forgotten but the struggle continues between rival factions. Ralph and Jack are fighting and everyone else is suffering.

Unlike Lord of the Flies, the arrival of a rescue boat for Russia is not going to happen. The solution has to come from within the island.

The solution is not obvious but will start when it is realised and acknowledged that capitalism and democracy are both imperfect but also the "least worst systems" available.

Capitalism was initially interpreted in quite a peculiar extreme way in Russia, hence "Capitalism: The Looting". However, to understand capitalism it is necessary to see its limitations as well as it's strengths. Adam Smith, the Scottish father of free-market capitalism states that "self interest" is the motivation of people that makes capitalism a success. However "self interest" is to be distinguished from "selfishness" which Smith saw as inappropriate, if not immoral. In "The Theory of Moral Sentiments", Smith expands on his views from "Wealth of Nations" and concludes that the self interest of any one person includes the interest of the rest of society.

It is this refinement that was missing, in the "Capitalism: The Looting" phase. Las Vegas may be great for those who enjoy gambling but should not be viewed as the business model for a large country that includes many poor.

Russia's capitalism was and is a crude imitation of the more mature versions in Britain and even America. This has lead to resentment of the masses against the few pirates. This resentment has, in turn, been exploited by the strong men. Russia will be rescued from itself when it learns that the answers come neither from Marx nor Las Vegas. No more Simons will die on the day when a Mercedes is no longer mistaken for good character, Louis Vuitton no longer mistaken for sincerity and Armani no longer mistaken for decency.

Capitalism at its most basic and crude has brought a moral cancer to the Russian soul. Now the treatment being administered is killing more than it is curing.

Russians are a great and caring people. I hope this is one day again reflected in the character of their nation.